Tournament Special Props:
Pentakill to be scored? Yes -225 / No +162
Since 2016 there has been a total of 18 quadrakills and 1 pentakill at the World Championship Main Event. The play here is no. If it happens it happens.
Pick – No +162 (1 unit)
Highest CS by a champion in a map? Over 500.5 @ +100 / Under 500.5 @ -138
One in 2016, four in 2017 (Uzi had two of them and a 495) all four and Uzi’s 495 eclipsed 12.1 CS per minute, Zero in 2018 despite five separate 12.1+ CS per minute performances, and one in 2019. The LCK didn’t have a single 500 CS milestone in Summer and it’s widely considered the most farm centric league. The LCS had two, LEC had zero, and the LPL had just a single occurrence in 335 regular season games.
The point is it takes an exceptionally long game for this to happen. We get about 70 games for a chance at it. The stakes are high, there will likely be some close games but I do think the under is the play here especially with the pace of the current state of the game pushing total game time significantly lower than it was when we got many of these spike performances.
Pick – UNDER 500.5 @ -109 (2.18 units)(Nitrogen)
Highest CS per minute by a champion in a map? OVER 12.0 @ -120 / UNDER 12.0 @ -120
We only had one of these last year (two technically). In the current state of League of Legends, this only really happens when it’s an elite team toying with a bad team and I don’t think there are any truly bad teams at this tournament like we’ve had in previous years. Even more importantly, the weaker teams in this tournament aren’t afraid to take a fight to their opponents meaning I don’t think we’ll see a lot of handshaking to late game like we used to. I think the under is worth a play here.
Pick – UNDER 12.0 @ +105 (1 unit)(Nitrogen)
Highest Number of Barons Slain? OVER 3.5 @ +350 / UNDER -600
Highest Number of Dragons Slain? OVER 7.5 @ +162 / UNDER 7.5 @ -225
Longest Map? 49:59 or less @ -110 / 50:00 or more @ -125
(Nitrogen has this for 52:00 or more @ -125 / 51:59 or less @ -109)
The longest game we saw last Worlds Main Event was 48:39 between Clutch and Fnatic. Almost all of the 7 dragon games we saw this season were longer than 44 minutes and with dragons taken more or less on cooldown with little dancing.
The three of these go hand-in-hand because they’re all essentially bets on game time. They also tie into the highest CS markets too. Essentially, if you think we’ll see a marathon game at this tournament then you should be taking the over in both CS props and the game prop. The exception is specifically the 500.5 total CS prop. There’s a fairly fat middle here as it’s relatively easy to get to 501 CS in roughly 45 minutes with just 11.1 CS per minute.
It’s extremely difficult to get a game to 50 minutes in season ten. We only saw a handful of them world- wide. Given this small sample I love the under here.
Pick – Longest Map? UNDER 51:59 @ -109 (4.36 units)
Shortest Map? 20:44 or less @ +100 / 20:45 or more @ -138
Nitro has for same time -116 / -116
I’m leaning toward the 20:45 or more here since I don’t really see any sort of absolute blowouts of that degree to target like we had with Invictus vs 100 Thieves in 2018. If somebody is going to do this it’ll be DAMWON or Gen.G but I don’t see them speed running any of the teams in their groups even if I do think they’ll clearly dominate. DAMWON and Gen.G are the only teams in this tournament with this level of closing speed and I think we’ve seen far fewer of these ridiculous speed runs across the globe as the season has gone on. People have learned how to not get herald cheesed which is often what needs to happen for this to occur.
Pick – 20:45 or more @ -116 (2.32 units)(Nitrogen)
Highest number of total kills in a map? OVER 50.5 @ -120 / UNDER 50.5 @ -120
Nitrogen has this for 52.5 @ -116 / -116
This one is likely to be ruined by one close game, probably a close knockout stage match between like TOP and JDG or something. The under is more likely but it’s pretty close for me so I’ll pass.
Most Deaths by a champion in a map? OVER 8.5 @ -120 / UNDER 8.5 @ -120
Nitrogen is 9.5 @ -116 / -116
I love the under 9.5 here. There are only really a few champions that could get to this number and I think it’s a better way to attack the over under 50.5 kills market. It’s going to take that kind of game as a prerequisite to get there on a bet like this.
Pick – UNDER 9.5 @ -116 (2.38 units)(Nitrogen)
Most Kills by a champion in a map? OVER 14.5 @ -120 / UNDER 14.5 @ -120
Nitrogen has 15.5 @ -116 / -116
We didn’t see more than 12 last year and that only happened twice and JackeyLove got to 13 when Invictus won in 2018. You’d have to go all the way back to 2017 where Uzi score 19 on Kog’maw in a 55 minute game against Fnatic. The next closest in that tournament? 11…
We’ve seen some spike performances including a few in play-ins this year. With Kassadin as a viable pick and Tristana floating around the potential for a spike here is pretty high but I’ll take the under 15.5 on Nitrogen for sure. This is a slam dunk.
Pick – UNDER 15.5 @ -116 (11.6 units)(Nitrogen)
Number of maps played in the Knockout Stage? OVER 27.5 @ -138 / UNDER 27.5 @ +100
Just to give an idea on this one, there were 27 games in the knockout stage last year, 26 in 2018, and 29 in 2017. Last year, six series went exactly four games and the finals was a 3-0 sweep. You need an AVERAGE of 4.0 games per series in the knockout stage to hit the over on this. I do think this tournament is going to be more competitive especially because there are going to be some REALLY REALLY good #2 seeds coming out of groups if things go as we think. That said, this feels a bit like a sucker bet to me. As we’ve learned this year with map totals, a series can be close and still a 3-0 and you get blown out, you need a good reason to trust longer series like sloppy teams or slow starters, etc. I’ll pass.
Total Champions Banned? OVER 66.5 @ -120 / UNDER 66.5 @ -120
2017 had 61 unique bans
2018 had 60 unique bans
2019 had 69 unique bans
2020 Play-Ins had 59 unique bans
I look over the champions that were picked but never once banned and count 8 but one of those is Orianna ADC which was banned as a mid so it’s really 7. Do we think we get any of those earning bans? Maybe Tristana and maybe Morgana if you want to play Blitzcrank.
Other ban options for specific players: Bjergsen’s Zilean, CoreJJ’s Blitzcrank, Hylissang/Keria’s Pyke
I like the under here especially because the junglers, Lucian, and Akali are going to hog up so much of the real estate.
Pick – UNDER 66.5 @ -120 (2.4 units)
Total Champions Picked? OVER 86.5 @ -138 / UNDER 86.5 @ +100
Total Champions Picked+Banned? OVER 90.5 @ -120 / UNDER 90.5 @ -120
Champions present in play-in stage followed by group stage by year:
2017: Play-in 67 -> 79
2018: Play-in 81 -> 76
2019: Play-in 82 -> 92
2020: Play-In 78 -> ???
92 last year, 76 year before, 79 year before, more concentrated ban focus on top three or four instead of one or two permabans reduces variety generally. I like the under again this year especially because there’s only one truly weird team left in the tournament (UOL). While I expect a tiny bit more diversity with some pocket picks, we’ve already seen A LOT of the weirder selections in the tournament.
Off the top of my head the champions we haven’t seen yet that I think are on the table to see play:
- Mundo (vs ap heavy comps)
- Maokai (vs ap heavy comps)
Bolded are the selections that I think we’re very likely to see at least once, the rest are on the fence.
With 78 champions on the table we’d need one more Need all of the bolded selections AND three more to get over the total here. When you consider that we could also NOT see a few of the champions we saw in play-in’s then I think this more or less is a lock to go under. This is one of my favorite futures positions in the entire tournament. I’ll stick to the picked+banned since I’m not sure we’ll see a true four permabanned champions even if it’s close.
Pick – Picked+Banned UNDER 90.5 @ -120 (6 units)
- 2019 – Tian (jungle)
- 2018 – Ning (jungle)
- 2017 – Ruler (ADC)
- 2016 – Faker (mid)
- 2015 – Marin (top)
- 2014 – Mata (support)
When you’re playing these non-hedgeable markets like MVP voting it’s more about narrowing the field and finding value positions. Typically this involves a lot of fading the favorites unless they’re overwhelming. A lot of the vigorish found in futures markets is towards the top meaning the numbers you get further down the table are more frequently closer to even or plus EV opportunities. So when I’m evaluating markets like this I tend to ask myself one question:
Who are the underpriced players on the teams likely to win?
As I’ve mentioned before my tier list for this tournament looks like this
S+: DAMWON, Gen.G, JDG, TOP Esports
S: DragonX, G2
A: Fnatic, Rogue, Liquid, TSM, LGD
B or less: the rest
Given the current metagame which could shift dramatically, I think there are realistically 7 “likely” teams to win with a handful of outside shots if they run extremely well. So who are the underpriced players on these teams?
Bolded selections indicate value positions
- Knight +550
- JackeyLove +600
- Karsa +1600
- 369 +3300
- Yuyanjia +6600
While Knight and JackeyLove are clearly incredible, Knight in particular is arguably the best player in the world, this price is too steep for me considering I don’t think they deserve to be favored to win the tournament by this much. I think this top four is fairly evenly matched across the board and none of them should be this dramatic a favorite. TOP are overpriced. If I had to take a stab at one it’d be 369 at his price.
- Kanavi +1100**
- Zoom +1200
- Yagao +3300 (0.3 units)
- Loken +6600 (0.2 units)
- LvMao +12,000 (0.2 units)
I much prefer JDG to TOP given their price. As good as Zoom is I think this is a bit rich for a top laner when I can get his teammates at much better prices and that I think Kanavi and LvMao are probably the most likely two to get it on this squad.
** Kanavi would be one of my picks to win this title in a vacuum but the odds I’m getting don’t work out well for the system I’m using so I’ll pass on him.
- Canyon +2200 (0.3 units)
- ShowMaker +750
- Nuguri +800
- Ghost +4000
- BeryL +9000 (0.2 units)
My personal favorites to win the tournament. ShowMaker was 2nd in MVP voting during the regular season only to Bdd, Canyon was tied for 3rd and BeryL tied for 9th. Nuguri had a few votes and Ghost fewer than him. This team is the ShowMaker and Canyon show generally speaking. Nuguri is an absolute monster but he’s frequently enabled by these two and just ends up obliterating 1v1 matchups and setting up for their patented dive plus double tower play. For the price, and given how potent the jungle metagame is at the moment, Canyon is the obvious value here and BeryL shortly after given his price. I wouldn’t bet on Ghost as he rarely gets the credit he deserves but he’s been an integral roleplayer and it only takes one awesome series in the finals.
- Ruler +2200 (0.3 units)
- BDD +2500 (0.3 units)
- Clid +6600 (0.2 units)
- Rascal +12,000 (0.2 units)
- Life +30,000 (0.2 units)
Bdd was your regular season MVP and Ruler finished 8th with 7 game MVP votes. Rascal received five, Life three, and Clid just two. I think everyone on Gen.G is live for this and an excellent value given that I think they’re a clear top four team to me and one of my favorites to win the tournament. They’re being priced as the 5th best team.
- Chovy +4000 (0.2 units)
- Keria +10,000 (0.2 units)
- Pyosik +20,000 (0.2 units)
- Doran +50,000 (0.2 units)
- Deft +4000
Chovy, Keria, Doran, and Deft all finished in the top 11 in MVP voting in the LCK with Pyosik a distance behind with only three votes. This makes some sense. Chovy and Keria do most of the heavy lifting on this team and Doran had an excellent finish to the 2020 season before Worlds (don’t sleep on him). Chovy is pricey but he’s also in the discussion for best player on the planet. Value on this whole squad although Deft is my least favorite of the bunch.
- SofM +4000 (0.2 units)
- SwordArt +10,000 (0.2 units)
- Huanfeng +20,000 (0.2 units)
- Bin +45,000 (0.2 units)
- Angel +4000
Suning are a very slightly favorable meta away from being a contender along with the elite four teams in this tournament. They are ridiculously underpriced given the likelihood that they could actually take this tournament down. Is it really that likely? No but the fact that they’re live and we’re getting these kinds of prices is criminal. A beer to win yourself a new rig? I’ll take that all day. Huanfeng, Bin, and SofM have been going absolutely ballistic this season.
- Caps +1800 (0.4 units)
- Wunder +5500 (0.2 units)
- Perkz +2000
- Jankos +22,500 (0.2 units)
- Mikyx +9000 (0.2 units)
I think Caps is one of the more expensive players I’m willing to pay up for in this category only because if G2 win it will mor ethan likely be on his back but I think Jankos at his price is criminal just like the Suning gang. Wunder is a great value too. I wouldn’t play Perkz personally I think he’s going to struggle here. I’d want a better price.
Longer shots from teams that would need a lot to go right to win:
(0.1 units each)
All of these fall into the category of “if a miracle run happens it’s probably through this guy.”
Any of my selections that are priced over the +3300 mark will be a 0.3 units wager. There are four of them. Any lower than +3300 but on one of the top six teams will be 0.2 units each. Any longer shots will be 0.1 units each.
0.4 units for Caps (0.4 units)
+ 0.3 units each per 3 top shelf picks (0.9 units)
+ 0.2 units each per 19 from the main team (3.8 units)
+ 0.1 units per 14 from the longer odds teams (1.4 units)
Total Exposure: 6.5 units
“Worst Win“: Canyon or Ruler at +2200 net +0.1 units
“Best Win” (realistic): LvMao +12,000 net +18.5 units
“Best Win” (long shots): Gadget or Impact net +244.5 units
(All lines from Bet365 unless noted otherwise)