Worlds 2020 Main Event Champion Props
We’ve spent a lot of time on The Esports Department Discord server discussing approaches and metagame considerations for these prop markets over the past couple of weeks for the play-in stage and now the main event. Keep in mind, that we will see more games from the team that make the top 8 so if there are any champions that are involved or not within those teams it’s worth noting such as a player specifically not playing a champion that could make that team avoid earning bans.
Prop markets aren’t for everyone but you can pick your spots and sometimes find a few gems. For the purposes of record keeping I’ll be counting these on the spreadsheet but I do use significantly lower stakes on these primarily due to limits. Set aside a percentage of your bankroll and use these units either as flat wagers in a way that divides out for you or just as a set amount you’re comfortable with.
Above are the total numbers of different champions picked for each of the roles over the past two season and this play-in stage.
While we saw a limited support champion pool for the play-in stage, the caliber and quality of the supports as well as their versatile pools and specialty picks are potentially very diverse for this tournament when compared to their play-in counterparts. Support saw 32.1% of the total bans in the play-in stage but only two supports cracked the Top 11 spots (Bard at #9, Nautilus at #11). You could count Shen as a flex and Sett as a flex but they weren’t much higher.
Jungle took up two of the top five most banned spots including Nidalee at #1, Lillia at #5, and three of the top five in overall presence with Nidalee at #1, Lillia at #4, and Graves and #5. Flexible Sett was at #7.
Mid lane, Orianna was the only true pure mid laner (although we saw her bot…. thanks Gadget) as the #2 most banned (tied with Ornn), and #2 in overall presence. Lucian is a mid/top flex (can go ADC I know but for purposes of this argument he’s a solo). He came in at #4 in most banned, #10 in most presence. The mid lane pool I think is going to be subject to the most change. I think a lot of the better teams aren’t as worried about Orianna as a safe blind pick because more of them play or are comfortable with certain counter picks or neutral matchups that are more problematic out of lane for her such as Akali, Leblanc, etc. I think we’ll see plenty of Orianna but I’m not sure she’ll be quite this high in demand with more of these mid laners possessing pocket picks in a similar vein to the support players.
Top was Ornn tied at #2 for most banned and highest presence. Renekton came in at #6 in both most bans and presence. Camille at #9 for presence, Lucian right near her, Shen shortly after. My prognosis for the top lane is that, unlike in play-ins, despite the strong top lane performances there overalll relative to expectation, that teams will be much less willing to blind pick Ornn or ban him when we have some of the best carry top laners in the world able to exercise a wide array of powerful counterpick options like Vayne, Lucian, Vladimir, Quinn, Jayce, Kayle, and many more. Similar to Orianna, the play-in teams tend to gravitate toward these easy-to-execute champions while stronger teams tend to rely on them less. I actually think Renekton might become a higher presence selection than Ornn and I don’t think he should be the favorite in either category.
For ADC I don’t envision a lot of game to game bans. Caitlyn still saw a fair amount of bans coming in at #10 but her popularity as a ban faded as the tournament went on and she was only selected four times despite eleven bans. The nerfs were enough to keep her relevant but no longer 90+% presence. If we see and ADC pop up here I think it’d be the more linear picks like Ezreal if teams don’t want the carry to be safe, or Kalista if they don’t want to be snowballed on. Twitch appears to be the hyper carry of choice while Senn, Jhin, and Ashe are versatile picks.
Hypothesis: Jungle will have the least diverse overall pool of the roles at this tournament.
We saw just about everything I could think we will see besides Khazix and maybe Trundle (because of Ornn in the top lane prevalence) in the jungle and it was still only 16 champions. To me there is a massive drop off after the three premium tier champions of Nidalee, Graves, and Lillia. From there, there are a variety of viable magic damage junglers such as Evelynn, Ekko, Gragas, Elise, and Karthus that will see play given the damage profile is flexible enough in the other lanes. We’re going to see a TON of bans and picks for those three, the next tier down will likely be Kindred and Hecarim. There are a ton of premium Lee Sin pilots in this event so I could see an uptick in the percentage of Lee especially amongst the Eastern teams.Due to the low variety of champion selections in the jungle, I think we’ll see a disproportionate amount of presence by the elite three.
Most Combined Picked+Banned:
I’ll be playing mostly the combined market or splitting my wager if the odds have a drastic gap between the two.
I like playing a weighted version of the jungle trio here since I feel fairly confident that one of the three will end up the most banned if it isn’t Lucian. The odds end up better for the overall trio here than in the bans because of Nidalee’s most banned price but I’ll be doing a bit of mixing. Most picked and banned frequently has one or two champions that are eating fewer bans and just getting through or “handshaked” on near the top unless the meta is ubiquitous like we saw last year with Pantheon banned in 119 out of 120 games. Ornn and Orianna are the obvious candidates here but I think we could see an uptick in Renekton as well as Akali given the amount of masters on those champions in this tournament.
The Shen is mostly because I think we’ve seen high proficiency from a few specific teams that I think can make a run here like Team Liquid and a few teams that play it in multiple roles.
Nidalee +350 (1.5 units)
Graves +800 (0.5 units)
Lillia +1000 (0.5 units)
Lucian +2500 (0.5 units)
Akali +3300 (0.25 units)
Renekton +2800 (0.25 units)
Shen +3300 (0.25 units)
Specifically for most banned I am giving much less consideration to Ornn and Orianna as these are more likely to be allowed through and either matched in a neutral lane or counterpicked than they were in the play-in stage.
Nidalee +175 (1.5 units)
Graves +1600 (0.5 units)
Lillia +2500 (0.5 units)
Lucian +2500 (0.5 units)
Most picked is a much weirder market to handicap because you’re essentially betting on the logical progression of the tournament remaining consistent. I actually find it easier to figure out the premium bans than where the tournament will end up settling. Considering the high priority placed on jungle champions in this tournament and the fact that both jungle and support have the least variety in overall champions played, those are the two roles to target here unless you think there will be a ubiquitous pick that’s handshaked on like we discussed above.
I included Graves in the ban and p+b wagers but I do think that of the three elite junglers he’s the most likely to get through the most often. He was the most played champion besides Leona in the play-in stage and we’re getting him at the 4th price. I think Renekton and Ornn are also worth a look as I could see it going either way in terms of “ban it so we don’t have to deal with it” or “we can counterpick both of these.” Ornn priced at +800 is egregious to me given how likely he still is to be the most played.
Realistically I do think Leona or Graves are the most picked but I’d put Ornn, Renekton, and Rakan next up and their prices are wildly different. We’ll fade the favorite here and fire a few small shots. Lillia might be a look given her low win rate but I think teams still respect the champion quite a bit despite that.
Graves +600 (1 unit)
Ornn +8000 (1 unit)
Renekton +2800 (0.5 units)
Rakan +2200 (0.5 units)
These are significantly higher variance and any plays I make here will be recreational but tracked on the sheet for clarity’s sake.
Highest Damage to Champs:
This prop is more than likely the ADC or Liandry’s builder from the longest game time. I’ll also be significantly lighter given the variance here. This market is primarily for recreation to me but I will be including it in my spreadsheet so you all deserve to see the work.
Gadget’s Swain won the DPM award for play-ins with his wild carry game against PSG’s melee composition but the actual highest damage appearances were:
- INTZ Micao’s Ezreal vs Legacy 31,318
- LGC Babip’s Nidalee 30,132 vs INTZ (same game as above)
- V3 Archer’s Ashe 31,017 vs LGD
and the winner
- LGD Xiye’s Syndra 34,040 vs V3
Last year we had Huni’s Gangplank taking the prize followed closely by Sneaky’s Heimerdinger. Other notables: Rookie’s Lucian, JackeyLove’s Kogmaw, Uzi’s Xayah, Kaiwing’s Yumi (that’s right…), TheShy’s Vladimir and Rookie’s Lucian in the same game.
2018 gave us Zereo’s Aatrox and BigKoro’s Kaisa in the same 42 minute win against Flash Wolves but the winner was Hjarnan’s Brand bot.
The unanimous factor here is these were all in long games (40+ minutes). You want to pick hyper carries that scale or get to poke constantly throughout a long game OR percentage health damage dealers like Liandry’s rushing champions, Brand, Kogmaw, Vayne, etc.
There are a few positions I like on this one and you’ll notice that most of them are toward the bottom of the table for higher odds. I don’t really see the appeal of going with the heavy favorites here this is already a strange market and I don’t see any reason they should be this heavily favored. Sure, they’re hyper carries that want to be in longer games but other than Orianna I don’t think we’ll see a lot of the rest of these topping the charts. Most of the long shots I actually like quite a bit more. Keep in mind that you want champions that are going to be in longer games and that are only coming in as counterpicks or in optimal situations for them.
Ziggs +2000 – Huge AOE damage, we might only see a few games from him, probably from G2 or UOL but in these longer games his ult can rack up obscene amounts of damage for specifically this measure.
Karthus +6600 – Karthus jungle is only really ever picked when the environment is perfect for it and most of the time the champion goes ballistic.
Lucian +3300 – He’s probably going to be banned a lot in this tournament but I could see a few games getting through and he’ll likely just get to lay into a tank in the top lane or something like that.
Vladimir +4000 – Similar to Lucian top, usually picked into top laners, especially Shen who I think will be a relevant pick in this tournament
Tristana +4000 – She’s been getting more play and can be flexed to mid or top lane as well. If games go long she’s one of these hyper carries.
Corki +5000 – Again, the long game carry argument. He’s one of the highest damage champions in the game
Kog’Maw +5000 – Same logic, usually only picked as a mid lane counter to Azir and those two have such good wave clear that games can sometimes go long as they want to build up.
Zoe +6600 – Long game, poke, etc.
Aphelios +6600 – I’m not sure how much of him we’ll see but he’s another one of these candidates.
Graves +15,000 – I think Graves is going to have 100% presence either picked or banned in this tournament so if he ends up getting a lot of attempts at this I could see it happening, at this price it’s worth a lottery ticket.
Nidalee – (+5000) – When Nidalee gets ahead early she can rack up some obscene numbers and if games stall out and she’s still able to lane poke she can still finish strong. Given the odds this is a decent lottery ticket given that I think she’ll more than likely be picked in every single game she isn’t banned.
Gangplank – (+6600) He had the title last year and it makes sense given the types of games he hard carries, the ones that go to three or more items and he gets to cast double digit ultimates.
Twitch (+1000)(0.2u) – One of the premier hyper carries of the tournament capable of putting out thousands of damage in just a few seconds in a given team fight. Also tremendous snowball potential.
Heimerdinger (+5000) – Runner up last year, competitive in years prior. We have a Heimerdinger player in Gadget in this tournament and they’re going to be pretty big underdogs so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it.
(0.1 units each plus an additional 0.1 for Twitch for a total of 1.5 units, minimum win = Net +0.6 units on Ziggs)
Most Kills in a map:
Nomanz scored 11 twice on Kassadin, Raes hit 15 on Ezreal, Kongyue who is no longer in the tournament got to 13 on Ekko, and Kramer got 10 on Jhin as your main performers from groups. Last year we saw a handful of 11’s and 12s from five different ADC’s and three by the eventual title winning ADC LWX.
Your best chance here is probably the two most played ADC champions that actually end up scoring most of the kills (sorry Senna). In this tournament it will probably be the co-favorites here Ezreal and Jhin each at +500. I could see Lucian as a decent spot at 1600 but he’s not going to get a lot of opportunities.
I’ll put a lottery ticket on Tristana at +5000.
Kassadin +800 (0.1 units)
Tristana +5000 (0.1 units)
Most Deaths in a map:
Nautilus won this in the Play-In with Snowflower against Legacy. 8 deaths was the number. Leona had a few 7s and Nautilus did as well.
Another more fun, high variance market. This is more than likely a support or “all-in” type jungler like Olaf or Skarner for the most deaths. It will probably be one of the top played supports just by the nature of the position. You can package Leona, Nautilus, and Rakan together to create a synthetic -300 on a Leona win with upside if the others do. You could also stick to just Leona and Nautilus for a synthetic +100 or better.
In terms of lottery tickets here you could go with Tahm Kench and Blitzcrank which both stick out to me only because of their numbers. There’s a reasonable chance we see both of them.
Leona +400 (1 unit)
Nautilus +500 (1 unit)
(All Lines are taken from Bet365)