Welcome, Tuesday marks day 2 of VCT Masters Reykjavik. We have 3 more series which should feature some awesome Valorant. But first, let’s take a look at how Monday went.
Record: 1-2 (-0.26 units)
While the picks went 1-2, the loss was minimal as I put 2 units on V1 to win 2-0. From the series it was clear the was a pretty large skill gap between V1 and Crazy Raccoons, although V1 did seem to want to make it difficult, dropping a slew of rounds, on both maps, that never should’ve happened. Really it only takes losing one or two rounds you shouldn’t and suddenly because of the economy you’re playing from behind in a bunch of other rounds. Either way, we squeaked out the win here.
Otherwise, I was very disappointed with both South American teams. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen something like the Kru vs Fnatic series. Kru won all 4 pistols, they successfully converted all 4 times. The pistols were fairly dominant too. I usually find pistols to be fairly indicative of gun skills, so I don’t think it was just that Kru were outgunned by Fnatic. Outside of the 8-0 round score to start every half though? 1-26. And that one was Fnatic rushing like mad-men while FNC was on defense on Haven. I’d barely even count it. Kru simply did not adjust whatsoever, particularly on Haven. They ran the same defensive setup I’m pretty sure every single round, and FNC clearly had solved it. It almost felt like Kru were playing scared.
Meanwhile, Sharks were all over the place. They dominated on Haven to open the series, but then the wheels started to come off. I thought they played OK on Bind, they just lost a few clutches that absolutely crushed them, but then on Ascent, my god what a pathetic display. They peeking the OP one-by-one, running around corners onto site with no flashes or util, and just playing like it was a silver lobby. I was definitely impressed by NUTURN, but I’m attributing most of this outcome to Sharks not playing well.
On to Tuesday.
We have 3 more Bo3 series on Tuesday, with 2 NA vs EU matchups that should be fun to watch. However, we start out with some Brazil vs SEA:
Vikings (-1100, -1.5 maps @ -210) vs
X10 Esports (+550, +1.5 maps @ +165) 11 am EST
O 2.5 maps (+200) / U 2.5 maps (-275)
With the shaky start from the other 2 SA teams, I’m a bit worried about Vikings. All the reports from scrims were that they looked great, but that doesn’t really matter once the tournament starts. Teams save strats during scrims, and the pressure of playing on stage obviously isn’t there. Now, that said, Vikings have clearly been a cut above the rest of South America/Brazil, and X10 are battling Crazy Raccoons for the worst team in the field. I’d be surprised if they took a map here, however I’m shaken enough by SA’s performance that I’m only going to bet 1 unit instead of sizing up to 2 like I did for V1.
Vikings -1.5 maps @-210 (1 unit)
Liquid (-750, -1.5 maps @ -180) vs
Version1 (+450, +1.5 maps @ +140) 1:30 pm EST
O 2.5 maps (+180) / U 2.5 maps (-240)
This is a huge line considering it’s NA vs EU and not a small region vs EU. Version had flashes of looking great against CR, they got out to great starts on both maps, but they also seemed to lose focus and let them back in the game. You won’t be able to get away with that against Liquid. Perhaps even more concerning, CR was able to exploit gaps in the V1 defense time after time, just walking thru and ending up behind. That said, it did give V1 a chance to get their 1st game jitters out, and I expect them to come out ready to play here.
I do think Liquid are the better team, but this line is too tilted in their direction for me to want to bet on them. I’m going to take a wait and see approach in this spot, as I don’t even really like the V1 line either. +140 implies a 42% chance to win a map, which I think is just about right.
Sentinels (-135, -1.5 maps @ +225) vs
Fnatic (Even, +1.5 maps @ -310) 4:00 pm EST
O 2.5 maps (Even) / U 2.5 maps (-130)
This is the marquee matchup of the day. Sentinels come in as the tournament favorite, while Fnatic are the 3rd favorite and just absolutely demolished Kru. They did lose all 4 pistol rounds and then all 4 conversions, which is a concern going into this series. Sentinels won’t get run over during rifle rounds like Kru, so if FNC continue to struggle in pistols those 4 rounds per map could be huge.
My initial lean is to take Fnatic at even odds, but it will honestly depend a little bit on how V1 vs Liquid goes. If Liquid easily beats V1 I won’t read much into it, Sen also destroyed them in the Challenger finals and they now have a standin, I’d likely stick with my FNC bet. However, if V1 keeps it close or beats Liquid, I’ll probably swing onto Sentinels -1.5.
Fnatic ML @ +100 (1 unit) – unless V1 beats/almost beats Liquid in which case:
Sentinels -1.5 maps @ +225 (.5 units)