Welcome! We have another Valorant Slate on Wednesday, although DK inexplicably shrunk the $10 even though it filled yesterday. I’m going to be combining content today, including some short thoughts with my projections, be sure to look below the projections table for those.
Couple notes on the slate, in their infinite wisdom, DK put Vanity in the player pool on both teams. He used to play for V1, but has since been transferred to Cloud9, DO NOT play the Vanity that is $4.8k and on V1. V1’s actual 5th, oderus, is missing from the player pool. C9 also technically has a 6 man active roster (7 if you count floppy, who is inactive). It’s been poiz who has sat so far since Vanity joined the team, I’d expect that to continue here. Don’t play Poiz (I’ve zeroed out his projection). Anyway here are the projections:
| Team | Player | Price | FP/R 3 Month | Projection | Value | Win Probability |
| Cloud9 Blue | leaf | 9600 | 1.45 | 82.58 | 8.60 | 65 |
| Cloud9 Blue | mitch | 8800 | 1.18 | 67.77 | 7.70 | 65 |
| Cloud9 Blue | xeta | 8000 | 1.17 | 67.43 | 8.43 | 65 |
| Cloud9 Blue | Vanity | 7400 | 1.14 | 65.57 | 8.86 | 65 |
| Cloud9 Blue | Xeppaa | 6800 | 1.30 | 74.18 | 10.91 | 65 |
| Cloud9 Blue | poiz | 6600 | 1.40 | 0 | 0 | 65 |
| Faze | corey | 9200 | 1.14 | 71.99 | 7.83 | 58 |
| Faze | BABYBAY | 8600 | 1.15 | 72.60 | 8.44 | 58 |
| Faze | Rawkus | 7600 | 0.80 | 51.35 | 6.76 | 58 |
| Faze | ZachaREEE | 7200 | 0.97 | 61.36 | 8.52 | 58 |
| Faze | BabyJ | 5800 | 0.95 | 59.97 | 10.34 | 58 |
| RISE | Shanks | 7000 | 0.94 | 60.29 | 8.61 | 42 |
| RISE | Derrek | 6200 | 1.05 | 66.81 | 10.78 | 42 |
| RISE | supamen | 5600 | 0.99 | 63.38 | 11.32 | 42 |
| RISE | neptune | 5000 | 0.87 | 56.00 | 11.20 | 42 |
| RISE | POISED | 4400 | 0.69 | 45.02 | 10.23 | 42 |
| Version1 | Zellsis | 7800 | 0.93 | 56.98 | 7.31 | 35 |
| Version1 | penny | 6400 | 0.56 | 40.77 | 6.37 | 35 |
| Version1 | effys | 5200 | 0.75 | 53.20 | 10.23 | 35 |
| Version1 | wippie | 4800 | 0.88 | 62.15 | 12.95 | 35 |
I added the win probabilities into the projections so that they’re posted somewhere. As usual, I like the underdogs from a game theory standpoint. I’m a little worried about V1, as they have really struggled since their surprise run to Masters 1, but they do have the firepower to compete with C9. The familiar names from CSGO (Xeppaa, Leaf, Vanity) should drive ownership to C9 even beyond what their odds imply. If I could play more entries I’d have a good bit of V1, but as it is I’ll make sure I have them in 1. Zellsis and Penny are the targets despite what the stats may say. Since V1 have lost early in a couple tournaments they have a tiny recent sample size, I wouldn’t dwell on their projections too much.
Rise also have a strong shot to win, I’ll definitely have them in at least one lineup. Faze have struggled lately too as teams have started to be able to better play against their super-aggro playstyle. Shanks and Derrek are my top targets here.
Good luck on Wednesday!
