Welcome! We have another Valorant Slate on Wednesday, although DK inexplicably shrunk the $10 even though it filled yesterday. I’m going to be combining content today, including some short thoughts with my projections, be sure to look below the projections table for those.

Couple notes on the slate, in their infinite wisdom, DK put Vanity in the player pool on both teams. He used to play for V1, but has since been transferred to Cloud9, DO NOT play the Vanity that is $4.8k and on V1. V1’s actual 5th, oderus, is missing from the player pool. C9 also technically has a 6 man active roster (7 if you count floppy, who is inactive). It’s been poiz who has sat so far since Vanity joined the team, I’d expect that to continue here. Don’t play Poiz (I’ve zeroed out his projection). Anyway here are the projections:

Team Player Price FP/R 3 Month Projection Value Win Probability
Cloud9 Blue leaf 9600 1.45 82.58 8.60 65
Cloud9 Blue mitch 8800 1.18 67.77 7.70 65
Cloud9 Blue xeta 8000 1.17 67.43 8.43 65
Cloud9 Blue Vanity 7400 1.14 65.57 8.86 65
Cloud9 Blue Xeppaa 6800 1.30 74.18 10.91 65
Cloud9 Blue poiz 6600 1.40 0 0 65
Faze corey 9200 1.14 71.99 7.83 58
Faze BABYBAY 8600 1.15 72.60 8.44 58
Faze Rawkus 7600 0.80 51.35 6.76 58
Faze ZachaREEE 7200 0.97 61.36 8.52 58
Faze BabyJ 5800 0.95 59.97 10.34 58
RISE Shanks 7000 0.94 60.29 8.61 42
RISE Derrek 6200 1.05 66.81 10.78 42
RISE supamen 5600 0.99 63.38 11.32 42
RISE neptune 5000 0.87 56.00 11.20 42
RISE POISED 4400 0.69 45.02 10.23 42
Version1 Zellsis 7800 0.93 56.98 7.31 35
Version1 penny 6400 0.56 40.77 6.37 35
Version1 effys 5200 0.75 53.20 10.23 35
Version1 wippie 4800 0.88 62.15 12.95 35

I added the win probabilities into the projections so that they’re posted somewhere. As usual, I like the underdogs from a game theory standpoint. I’m a little worried about V1, as they have really struggled since their surprise run to Masters 1, but they do have the firepower to compete with C9. The familiar names from CSGO (Xeppaa, Leaf, Vanity) should drive ownership to C9 even beyond what their odds imply. If I could play more entries I’d have a good bit of V1, but as it is I’ll make sure I have them in 1. Zellsis and Penny are the targets despite what the stats may say. Since V1 have lost early in a couple tournaments they have a tiny recent sample size, I wouldn’t dwell on their projections too much.

Rise also have a strong shot to win, I’ll definitely have them in at least one lineup. Faze have struggled lately too as teams have started to be able to better play against their super-aggro playstyle. Shanks and Derrek are my top targets here.

Good luck on Wednesday!

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