It appears that the canceled slate last week when Fanduel forgot to account for Daylight Savings in their lock time was the final nail in the coffin for their Valorant product, at least for now. So while we don’t have a “traditional” DFS contest, Thrive is offering a $500 free to enter contest. If you haven’t played on Thrive before, first of all sign up using code TED and Thrive will match your first deposit, (min of $20, max of $50 and there is a 4x rollover before you can withdraw the matched funds).
Anyways, Thrive is basically prop bets meets DFS. Every player in the Envy vs Luminosity game has a prop. You have to pick 5 of the 10 props. The unique twist is that each over and under has a point total associated with it. If your pick is right, you get the number of points you bet was worth. For example, on Friday Food’s prop is over/under 70.5 kills + deaths:
As you can see, betting the over will net you 95 points if it hits while the under will net you 105. This creates more strategy than just o/u player props, as you can go “safe” to try to lock in points or more risky to increase your max possible points.
Now, before I jump in I do want to mention that I am pretty new at Thrive, I played last weekend but that was my first time. That said, the strategy feels pretty straightforward to me. Basically, my plan is is to build around a specific outcome. I took the stats from both teams last ~20 maps played to get each players average kills per map won, deaths per map won, kills per map lost, and deaths per map lost. From there I simply calculated what was likeliest to happen for each player in each of the 4 possible outcomes. That data is in the below chart:
On the chart:
BLUE = Projection is 20% or more OVER the prop in that scenario
GREEN = 0-20% OVER
White = 0-20% UNDER
RED = 20% or more UNDER
The Vegas odds say that Envy has a roughly 67% implied win probability. The “safest” strategy would be building around an Envy win, however Envy winning 2-0 vs 2-1 is also obviously important. For the safest lineup possible, I’d look for players who are either over in both an Envy 2-0 or 2-1 win or under in an Envy 2-0 or 2-1 win. Ironically, there are exactly 5 players who fit that mold. Mummay projects for under 41.5 deaths in both scenarios, FNS also projects under his 39.5 deaths prop, and Stellar projects under his 89.5 kills + deaths prop. Meanwhile, yaboidre and moose both project over their respective props regardless of if Envy win 2-0 or 2-1. However, that safety comes at a cost, as the points values associated with those bets are:
Mummay Under = 90 points
FNS Under = 95 points
Stellar Under = 85 points
Moose Over = 90 points
YaBoiDre Over = 85 points
That only gives you a maximum point total of 445. However, this is what I would run in a “cash game” type scenario because it’s the safest bets if Envy wins. For the other 5 props Envy winning 2-0 vs 2-1 is important.
For GPP’s, I’d rather key in on one specific scenario. For example, let’s say I think Envy are going to win 2-0. In that case, based on the “projections” I made, everyone except moose and dre would likely hit under on their props. We could build this lineup:
Kaboose Under = 110 points
Food Under = 105 points
Aproto Under = 120 points
Thief Under = 100 points
Crashies Under = 100 points
This would give us a total upside of 525 points, a full 80 higher than the 445 max of the “cash” style lineup. Also it’s worth noting that this lineup is actually not terrible if LG wins 2-0, the only person whose projection swaps from under to over is Aproto, so you could still possibly salvage a 405 point score if LG wins 2-0. Of course, if the series goes 3 maps, regardless of who wins you’re almost definitely putting up a 0 so it’s very risky in that regard.
You can do the same thing for other scenarios too, and of course the projections I made above are quick and dirty, definitely don’t take them as gospel. In the sample size I took Envy in particular have a few very short wins, I’m talking 13-1’s and such, which obviously lowers their overall counting stats, and that’s not accounted for in the chart at all. It’s a very basic projection as like I mentioned I’m just getting started playing on Thrive myself.
Anyways, moral of the story is sign up for Thrive Fantasy with promo code: TED and enter the free $500 dollar Valorant contest! Pick a scenario you think might happen (or a scenario you think no one else is going to pick) and try to maximize your points if that scenario ends up happening. Good luck!