Sunday marks day 4 of the NA masters, we have another 2 game slate that starts at 3 pm EST. The games are:
Envy (59% implied win probability) vs Faze
Sentinels (55%) vs 100 Thieves
I’m going to list each player, their KDA, and then today I’m adding fantasy points in the form of [Kills per round, Deaths per round, Assists per round, Fantasy points per round]. Fantasy points per round will include bomb plants/defuses as well as kill bonuses. This should give a much clearer picture of who the best plays are than just KDA. Bomb planting in particular has a significant impact on FP/r for a lot of these players.
I’ll also list the agent(s) each member plays most often. Generally speaking, if you see someone plays Jett that usually means they are the OPer (sniper), although because the OP is $5.0k to buy while the rifles are only $2.9k, a lot of the time even the OPers end up playing quite a few rounds on rifles every game, many more than in CS:GO. Typically speaking, players who play duelists (Jett, Reyna, Phoenix, Raze, Yoru) are the players expected to be the top fraggers by their team. I have switched how I’m getting my stats, so they’ll now only be for the past 60 days. A lot of these players have changed teams and roles fairly frequently, so showing only fairly recent stats makes more sense than showing long term stats in my opinion.
mummAy – $9.8k – [.74, .63, .20, 1.48] – Omen
FNS – $9.0k – [.65, .65, .28, 1.12] – Cypher, Killjoy
kaboose – $9.6k – [.74, .70, .24, 1.21] – Raze, Reyna
crashies – $10.6k – [.85, .63, .31, 1.72] – Sova, Skye
food – $11.8k – [.85, .64, .35, 1.98] – Phoenix, Raze
One of the reasons food is such a standout DFS play is because he plants the bomb a ton on top of being a top fragger. However, in the their 1st game of the Masters, food had the 2nd least plants on the team. Crashies was one of the players with more than him. Now it’s very possible that could have been a fluke, there were definitely a bunch of scenarios where food already had his ult when the bomb was being planted, but IF that trend continues crashies could overtake food as the #1 dfs play for this team, as their KDA numbers are very similar. It was actually mummAy who led the team in plants. Seemingly full time on Omen now, if he’s planting the bomb a lot on top of still putting up decent kill numbers (granted I do expect those numbers to drop a bit as they do capture some games on Jett still) he makes for a strong play, especially on this slate at $9.8k. kaboose is now a full time duelist, but he never plants the bomb, which definitely hurts his DFS potential. Still thoough, it’s not out of the question that he outscores mummAy so I don’t mind him in stacks.
babybay – $12.0k – [.90, .69, .23, 1.66] – Jett
Corey – $10.1k – [.87, .67, .25, 1.58] – Raze
Marved – $9.4k – [.73, .72, .25, 1.28] Omen, Sage
Rawkus – $10.9k – [.63, .59, .34, 1.37] Sova, Skye
ZachaREEE – $9.7k – [.61, .61, .30, 1.33] Breach, Killjoy, Omen
babybay picked up right where he left off to start Masters, dominating Xset in their first matchup. He’s their top play, although looking with a slightly longer lense, Corey isn’t too far behind him. He’s a solid play too although I will say a week or so ago Corey’s fp/r were actually higher than babybay’s, recently the gap between the two is definitely bigger than the numbers indicate. babybay is the clear number 1 here right now. ZachaREEE is also a decent play as now that he plays Breach a lot he absolutely farms assists.
ShahZaM – $10.6k – [.80, .68, .17, 1.41] – Jett, Sova
SicK – $9.5k – [.83, .67, .32, 1.80] – Phoenix, Sage, Sova
Tenz – $12.3k – [1.05, .82, .36, 2.06] – Reyna, Raze, Jett
zombs – $8.9k – [.59, .68, .28, 1.06] – Omen
dapr – $9.9k – [.71, .66, .27, 1.31] – Cypher, Sage
Tenz came in for Sentinels in their first game and fit in right away. By fit in I mean absolutely dominated, and played 3 different agents in the process. He should he’s not a one-trick Jett. It is worth noting his numbers come from a tiny sample size, so while he’s definitely a very strong play he’s not the complete auto-lock his numbers may indicated. It’s also worth noting the 100T are likely the best tactical team in NA. Tenz plays super aggressive, if you notice in his limited numbers he leads the slate in both kills and deaths per round, and 100T will likely be the best prepared for that out of anyone Tenz faces within NA. Aside from Tenz, SicK is still underpriced. I don’t know what it’s going to take for DK to raise his price, but I’m going to keep jamming him into my lineup until they do. ShahZaM is also a little bit underpriced. One last note here, dapr was actually the primary bomb planter in their last series. If that continues that would give him a big boost for DFS as he was previously barely ever planting. SicK is still a cheaper, better play, but it could push dapr ahead of ShahZaM if that becomes a trend.
Asuna – $11.5k – [.85, .76, .31, 1.59] – Raze
Ethan – $8.9k – [.71, .71, .23, 1.23] – Omen
nitr0 – $11.2k – [.75, .65, .34, 1.63] – Sage, Breach
Hiko – $9.9k – [.67, .59, .38, 1.44] – Sova
steel – $9.2k – [.69, .69, .25, 1.20] – Killjoy, Cypher
100T started masters with an impressive 2-0 over Immortals, despite Asuna having a frankly awful game. It was Nitr0 who stepped up and carried the team. For all the talk of Ethan adjusting to Valorant, nitr0 also was adjusting to playing completely new agents. He looked much more comfortable this past series and his great play combined with Asuna’s poor performance actually puts nitr0 as the team’s top fantasy point per round player. He is priced up a bit but he’s not that expensive at only $11.2k. Hiko is a solid value at $9.9k, and Ethan continues to get better and continues to be in the $8k’s. I like him as a 3rd for stacks.
Yesterday’s stands both worked out, and I was able to take 2nd in both the $33 and the $4.44, ironically losing to the same lineup in each. The contests aren’t getting any bigger so I’m going to have to take stands again.
I doubted Faze against Xset and they made me look stupid, but Envy are a different beast entirely. Envy are the best team in NA right now in my opinion, so I’m taking the stand that they will beat Faze.
I also doubted Tenz and Sentinels as a whole and they also made me look stupid. I will not be making that mistake again. However, I do think 100T are a very good team as well, so the stand I’m taking here is that this series goes 3 games. I may not game stack quite as hard as I did Saturday, as I do think Faze could push that series to 3 as well, but I’ll definitely have at least 3 of my 5 actual players (so not counting team slot) from this game in my main lineup.
SicK is again my favorite play on the slate, and will likely be everyone else’s too, I’ll have him in all 4 of my lineups. One way I do think there is an edge is captaining him, as I think there’s a psychological aspect that keeps people from captaining “cheap” players on FD since there’s no salary multiplier.
Other than SicK I like the guys who score more fp/r, especially at low salaries.
That’s it for me, good luck on Sunday!