Day 2 of the Masters is on Friday, with another 2 game slate. Lock is again at 3pm EST and the games are:
Luminosity (52% implied win probability) vs Sentinels
100 Thieves (54%) vs Immortals
I’m going to list each player, their KDA, and then today I’m adding fantasy points in the form of [Kills per round, Deaths per round, Assists per round, Fantasy points per round]. Fantasy points per round will include bomb plants/defuses as well as kill bonuses. This should give a much clearer picture of who the best plays are than just KDA. Bomb planting in particular has a significant impact on FP/r for a lot of these players.
I’ll also list the agent(s) each member plays most often. Generally speaking, if you see someone plays Jett that usually means they are the OPer (sniper), although because the OP is $5.0k to buy while the rifles are only $2.9k, a lot of the time even the OPers end up playing quite a few rounds on rifles every game, many more than in CS:GO. Typically speaking, players who play duelists (Jett, Reyna, Phoenix, Raze, Yoru) are the players expected to be the top fraggers by their team. I have switched how I’m getting my stats, so they’ll now only be for the past 60 days. A lot of these players have changed teams and roles fairly frequently, so showing only fairly recent stats makes more sense than showing long term stats in my opinion.
aproto – $9.0k – [.77, .71, .21, 1.30] – Cypher, Killjoy
stellar – $11.5k – [.66, .65, .30, 1.47] – Phoenix, Sage, Omen
thief – $9.8k – [.81, .76, .22, 1.40] – Raze, Reyna, Phoenix
moose – $9.6k – [.68, .64, .31, 1.37] – Sova
YaBoiDre – $10.9k – [.79, .73, .22, 1.32] – Omen, Raze
Luminosity are an extremely balanced team when it comes to fantasy scoring. This makes them a bit frustrating to target, but we typically should be targeting them since they are a good team. Thief, moose, and aproto look a bit underpriced here, but all 5 guys are in play.
ShahZaM – $10.1k – [.80, .69, .17, 1.42] – Jett, Sova
SicK – $9.7k – [.83, .67, .32, 1.80] – Phoenix, Sage
Tenz – Not on the slate
zombs – $9.5k – [.59, .68, .28, 1.07] – Omen
dapr – $11.2k – [.71, .67, .26, 1.28] – Cypher
A lot is up in the air with Sentinels right now. Some very serious and well substantiated accusations of sexual misconduct were brought to light about Sinatraa, and he has been suspended pending investigation. In an emergency move, Sentinels bought Tenz out his contract with Cloud 9 on Thursday (3/11). Tenz is very talented, but he’s also a Jett player and they already have one of those in ShahZaM. Tenz was streaming Thursday night and was still playing Jett, so my guess is that it will be ShahZam who switches agents. Tenz also has only had 1 day to practice with his new team, so I’m expecting some growing pains. That said, if we expect the “normal” performances out of everyone else on Sentinels, SicK looks massively underpriced here. He’ll be a staple in my lineups Friday. ShahZaM also looks underpriced, although I am worried about him swapping agents.
Asuna – $11.8k – [.87, .76, .30, 1.65] – Raze
Ethan – $8.9k – [.70, .71, .24, 1.20] – Omen
nitr0 – $10.6k – [.74, .66, .34, 1.57] – Sage, Breach
Hiko – $9.9k – [.67, .58, .39, 1.46] – Sova
steel – $9.2k – [.69, .69, .25, 1.20] – Killjoy, Cypher
For me 100 Thieves is all about Ethan. How successful they are will likely hinge on how fast he’s been able to improve. He already brought his number up quite a bit (he was at 1.04 fp/r the last time I wrote this article), and I expect that improvement to continue showing with another week of practice under his belt. He’ll be a staple if I stack 100T. Hiko and nitr0 are also solid values, while Asuna offers great raw upside.
jcStani – $9.2k – [.71, .74, .27, 1.42] – Omen, Sage
Genghsta – $8.9k – [.70, .60, .35, 1.48] – Sova
ShoT UP – $12.3k – [.92, .70, .29, 1.79] – Breach, Reyna, Killjoy
NaturE – $9.9k – [.65, .65, .22, 1.26] – Cypher, Killjoy, Viper
Kehmicals – $10.6k – [.80, .70, .20, 1.37] – Jett, Raze
Pricing is a bit out of whack here for Immortals, Genghsta scores the 2nd most fp/r on the team yet he’s the lowest priced. jcStani is right behind Genghsta in fp/r, and he’s also priced right above him. Meanwhile Nature and Kehmicals are a bit overpriced for their production. jcStani gets a ton of his fantasy points from bomb plants/defuses (mostly plants), second to only Stellar on the slate. He makes for a relatively safe option in stacks with ShoT UP while Genghsta is a tiny bit more risky, but also comes with more upside (and realistically his assist numbers are fairly reliable, so he’s not even that risky). I like both in stacks with ShoT UP.
With only being able to make a few lineups, we have to take some strong stands. The stands I am going to take are Luminosity over Sentinels and Immortals over 100T.
Luminosity was already 2-1 against Sentinels in recent matchups, and now Sentinels have a new player on their team, one who has only practiced with them for 1 day. I’ll still have SicK but other than that I’m going to be on the LG side of this matchup.
I also think 100T are getting a “popular team” boost in their odds, similar to what the Cowboys get in football for example. Like I said above, IF Ethan is now an elite Valorant pro then sure, they should be favorites, but based strictly on what we’ve seen from both teams, Immortals should definitely be the favorites here. Of my 4 lineups for the “big” GPP, I’ll likely go heavier on Immortals in 3 of them.
Genghsta is my favorite play on the slate. He’s far too cheap for his scoring potential. I’ll be using plenty of him, ShoT UP, and jcStani.
There’s enough cheap plays that I like that I’ll likely get up to Stellar from Luminosity. I probably won’t captain him, but he gets absolutely fed bomb plants which gives him a super safe floor. I tend to think of bomb plants like pass catching RBs in PPR. They’re an easy and reliable way to get fantasy points even if they don’t really matter in the actual game (of course the yards the running backs get after making their catches, aka kills, matter, but catching the ball at the line of scrimmage doesn’t actually help the team at all). Outside of Stellar I like thief and moose the best, I’ll have one or two lineups of each of them.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!