After 3 qualifying “Challenger” tournaments, the best teams from those are now set to face off in the Masters. Lock is at 3pm EST, and the games are:
Envy (72% implied win probability) vs Gen.G
Faze (51%) vs Xset
I’m going to list each player, their KDA, and then today I’m adding fantasy points in the form of [Kills per round, Deaths per round, Assists per round, Fantasy points per round]. Fantasy points per round will include bomb plants/defuses as well as kill bonuses. This should give a much clearer picture of who the best plays are than just KDA. Bomb planting in particular has a significant impact on FP/r for a lot of these players.
I’ll also list the agent(s) each member plays most often. Generally speaking, if you see someone plays Jett that usually means they are the OPer (sniper), although because the OP is $5.0k to buy while the rifles are only $2.9k, a lot of the time even the OPers end up playing quite a few rounds on rifles every game, many more than in CS:GO. Typically speaking, players who play duelists (Jett, Reyna, Phoenix, Raze, Yoru) are the players expected to be the top fraggers by their team. I have switched how I’m getting my stats, so they’ll now only be for the past 60 days. A lot of these players have changed teams and roles fairly frequently, so showing only fairly recent stats makes more sense than showing long term stats in my opinion.
mummAy – $10.1k – [.75, .63, .20, 1.51] – Omen, Jett
FNS – $9.5k – [.66, .65, .28, 1.15] – Cypher, Killjoy
kaboose – $9.7k – [.74, .70, .23, 1.25] – Raze, Reyna, Omen
crashies – $11.2k – [.85, .63, .31, 1.68] – Sova, Skye
food – $12.3k – [.85, .65, .35, 2.01] – Phoenix, Raze
Envy are the only team I know of that feeds their star duelist spike plants. It makes sense in game, whoever plants the spike gets a point towards their ult, and Envy clearly prioritizes food getting his ults, and it’s even better for DFS. food has very good KDA numbers, but it’s the combination of that and his bomb plants that make him such an elite option on Fanduel. Pricing looks pretty good here, every is in play for me except probably FNS. I’d rather have kaboose for $200 more, especially with him mostly playing duelists lately.
gMd – $8.3k – [.70, .66, .29, 1.25] – Omen
huynh – $9.6k – [.75, .66, .16, 1.23 ] – Jett
MkaeL – $10.4k – [.58, .61, .40, 1.43] – Sova, Skye
Shawn – $11.7k – [.95, .70, .27, 1.75] – Reyna, Raze, Phoenix
koosta – $8.4k – [.68, .68, .25, 1.19] – Cypher, Killjoy
Gen.G have seen their pricing go entirely untouched from the last slate they were on. I know this because I copy and paste the little chart and change the numbers when I write this, and for Gen.G I thought I was losing my mind because I didn’t have to change anything. That said, I think the pricing is pretty solid, gMd is a little underpriced but it’s not like he’s exactly a fantasy stud.
babybay – $12.0k – [.89, .69, .24, 1.60] – Jett
Corey – $9.9k – [.87, .67, .25, 1.57] – Raze, Phoenix
Marved – $8.9k – [.73, .73, .25, 1.30] Omen, Sage
Rawkus – $10.6k – [.62, .60, .35, 1.33] Sova, Skye
ZachaREEE – $9.2k – [.61, .61, .29, 1.31] Breach, Killjoy, Omen, Cypher
Babybay absolutely dominated 100T in the grand finals of Challengers 3, and he’s proving that it’s not just CS:GO players who can be good at Valorant. The former Overwatch stud has cemented himself as one of the top fraggers in the NA scene, and you can see the Overwatch DNA in his game with his super aggressive Jett plays. Corey remains too cheap, as while Rawkus was bumped down a bit, he still shouldn’t be priced above Corey. Corey and babybay are my targets here, but I don’t mind Marved or ZachaREE if I want to run a 3 stack (team slot also works).
PureR – $10.9k – [.79, .72, .20, 1.32] – Jett
thwifo – $9.6k – [.67, .68, .30, 1.15] – Cypher, Breach
AYRIN – $9.0k – [.73, .71, .24, 1.11] – Raze, Killjoy, Sage
BcJ – $11.5k – [.80, .63, .37, 1.65] – Sova, Omen
Wedid – $9.8k – [.68, .71, .28, 1.24] – Omen, Viper
Xset are again priced pretty well. They appear to run some really strange lineups when you look at the different characters the same person plays, but that’s really just for Split. On all the other maps AYRIN plays Raze, BcJ plays Sova, thwifo plays Cypher, and Wedid plays Omen. Xset are probably the most balanced team on this slate, even their bomb planting/defusing is even spread out. No one stands out as a super exciting play, especially since they play Split so often and players like AYRIN and BcJ, who normally play DFS friendly agents, swap to much worse agents (for DFS).
As Fanduel continues to reduce contest sizes since they’re apparently unwilling to invest even a single dollar into this sport, we’re down to a max of 4 lineups for the $5.55 GPP. For me, this means I’m less likely to game stack, maybe I’ll do one lineup with a Faze/Xset stack.
I know I’ve normally said don’t trust Vegas odds, but I do trust them for the Envy/Gen.G series in particular, or they at least align with my thinking. I think Envy are the best team in NA, especially with Sinatraa suspended and likely permanently cut by Sentinels after the pretty terrible sexual misconduct allegations came to light on Wednesday. I have not been particularly impressed by this Gen.G team, I keep waiting for Koosta to perform to the levels he did in CS:GO but he just hasn’t yet. I do think part of that is that he’s stuck on Cypher but I digress. Either way I’m not really planning on running much Gen.G outside of maybe a 1 off because of Fanduel’s rule that you need players from 3 teams.
I think people will likely remember Faze’s dominant performance against 100T in the final of Challengers 3 and assume they’re the better team that Xset. They’re also ever so slight favorites. However, Xset did win 2-0 when these teams met during Challengers 2, so I’m going to lean towards Xset myself. What I’ll probably do is 1 Xset/Faze gamestack, 2 Xset + Envy and 1 Faze + Envy. If Gen.G ends up winning so be it, you have to make cuts somewhere on these tiny slates.
The players I like are basically the top FP/R players, I do have a feeling I’m going to end up with some Marved/ZachaREEE/AYRIN exposure though, as I’ll need salary savings from somewhere.
That’s it for me, good luck Thursday!