Welcome! Draftkings has added Valorant to the lobby!! Why did they add it on day 3 of the tournament with absolutely 0 notice? I have no idea, I’m just happy it’s here. If you’re unfamiliar with Valorant, check out this post I made when Fanduel briefly added Valorant DFS (ignore the DFS scoring section, that was the FD scoring). It’ll give you a brief overview. Draftkings DFS product looks to be identical to CS:GO in terms of lineup construction. 6 players, 1 captain, 3 max per team. The scoring is slightly different, let’s take a look:
The main differences from CSGO to Valorant are that kills went from being worth 1.5 to 2, a triple kill bonus was added (only .25), quad kills are only worth 1.5 bonus points, and aces are only worth 3. With kills being increased in value and the multi-kill bonuses being decreased in value, the mutli-kill bonuses (and clutch bonuses because they’re so infrequent) and almost non-factors in most player FP/r. When I did the stats no one had more than .063 FP/r from kill bonuses + clutches. The player who had .063 (gaabx) averages a total of 1.11 FP/r, so the .063 is still basically inconsequential.
You’ll also notice .02 points per point of average combat score (ACS). Draftkings confirmed for me on twitter that it’s ACS across the entire series, so that will be somewhere in the ballpark of 3-5 points or so for most players.
It’s also worth noting that a standard map is 24 rounds and not 30, so in a sweep a player will get 12 points from RNP plus 5 for a sweep for 17 total. This makes the sweep bonus slightly more valuable, but overall I’m a little bit concerned this setup. 17 points on a 24 round map is roughly .70 FP/r. The lowest any player on the slate averages is .77 per round. Of course, a 3rd map means a losing map, but for the good players I’d expect them to score over 17 on most losing maps. That means it’s probably going to be beneficial for your players to play 3 maps. Keep that in mind before you decide to stack a huge favorite hoping for a quick sweep.
Anyways, let’s take a look at the slate. We have a 3 game slate starting at 11 am EDT. The games are:
Crazy Raccoon (55% implied win probability) vs X10
Sharks (76%) vs Kru
Sentinels (69%) vs Vikings
One quick note about the player pool, Sinatraa and keznit are both listed in the player pool. Neither is playing. Do not play them.
I’ve tabulated every team’s FP/r. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account odds at all, and use stats from the last 2 months. For teams like Vikings, this means most of their stats are from games in Brazil, where they were dominant. Just because Sacy has great stats, doesn’t mean that if Sentinels crush Vikings he’ll play well. The stats are more useful for comparing within a team. What I mean by that is if you decide you think Vikings can upset Sen or that low ownership will be worth playing them, then you look and see that Sacy has been their best player so he’s a good play IF they win. Anyways, here are the stats for each team:
Strictly pricing based a few things that jump out at me are:
Crazy Raccoon are too cheap. They’re favorites but no one is over $7.2k. This will likely lead to an influx of ownership, X10 are a nice GPP play especially since they’re more expensive.
Sharks pricing is out of whack. gaabxx is the best player, but he’s 3rd most expensive. A lot of people probably won’t realize that and assume the most expensive players are better.
Klaus is underpriced on Kru. He’s just barely behind the top fraggers, yet he’s $3k cheaper.
Shahzam and Dapr are underpriced. Both put up really solid numbers, yet both are $3k less than Sick and Tenz.
I’ll dive into this deeper in my betting article (should be up within a couple hours of this one), but I think the Sharks vs Kru line is wayyy off. I think Kru should be favorites. They scrim against Brazilian teams all the time, and the word out of Brazil was that IF Kru was in the Brazil region, they would’ve been 2nd best in the region behind Vikings. Sure, they got crushed by Fnatic, but Fnatic are very good, and Kru play a similar style to Fnatic, which can make the matchup even harder. Meanwhile, Sharks looked terrible on maps 2 and 3 against NUTURN. Their performance on Ascent was far and away the worst map I’ve seen from a team in this tournament. They looked horrible. I’m likely going to make my biggest stand here in DFS (and betting) in going Kru over Sharks.
I also think SA has been really weak as a whole this tournament (irrelevant for the game above since they’re both SA teams). Even Vikings struggled with X10, and they seem to be behind the meta running outdated comps. This shapes how I look at these other 2 games. Crazy Raccoon keeping it so close against V1 looks a looot better after V1 went on to beat Liquid, so I tend to favor them over X10. This will be the one game where I split my exposure though (I’m only running a few lineups since I just don’t have time to hand build 88 and to my knowledge no optimizers exist yet), and I do think X10 will go underowned.
Given my thoughts on SA, and how NA went 2-0 against EU on Tuesday, I think Sentinels smash Vikings here. I’m going to have little to no exposure to Vikings at all, especially given how cheap Shahzam and Dapr are.
Overall, my favorite plays on the slate (not in any particular order) are:
My player pool will be slightly bigger, but that’s really where the core of my lineups will come from.
Good luck everyone, let’s get these tournaments filled up!