Welcome! We’re back for the 3rd and likely final (for this tournament) day of Valorant DFS. Friday is the last day a slate can be made from multiple games, the winner of Game 1 on Saturday plays in Game 2, so outside of showdown this will be the last slate of the Masters.
In case this is your first time playing Valorant DFS, I’m going to leave the quick breakdown of the scoring at the top of the article for the first few. If you read this previously, you can skip down to The Games. Also, while this article is free to read, there are projections available for subscribers only. So check those out if you’re a subscriber!
If you’re unfamiliar with Valorant, check out this post I made when Fanduel briefly added Valorant DFS (ignore the DFS scoring section, that was the FD scoring). It’ll give you a brief overview. Draftkings DFS product looks to be identical to CS:GO in terms of lineup construction. 6 players, 1 captain, 3 max per team. The scoring is slightly different, let’s take a look:
The main differences from CSGO to Valorant are that kills went from being worth 1.5 to 2, a triple kill bonus was added (only .25), quad kills are only worth 1.5 bonus points, and aces are only worth 3. With kills being increased in value and the multi-kill bonuses being decreased in value, the mutli-kill bonuses (and clutch bonuses because they’re so infrequent) and almost non-factors in most player FP/r. When I did the stats for Wednesday no one had more than .063 FP/r from kill bonuses + clutches. The player who had .063 (gaabx) averages a total of 1.11 FP/r, so the .063 is still basically inconsequential.
You’ll also notice .02 points per point of average combat score (ACS). Draftkings confirmed for me on twitter that it’s ACS across the entire series, so that will be somewhere in the ballpark of 3-5 points or so for most players.
It’s also worth noting that a standard map is 24 rounds and not 30, so in a sweep a player will get 12 points from RNP plus 5 for a sweep for 17 total. This makes the sweep bonus slightly more valuable, but overall I’m a little bit concerned this setup. 17 points on a 24 round map is roughly .70 FP/r. The lowest any player on this slate averages is .95 per round. Of course, a 3rd map means a losing map, but for the good players I’d expect them to score over 17 on most losing maps. That means it’s probably going to be beneficial for your top fraggers to play 3 maps. Keep that in mind before you decide to stack a huge favorite hoping for a quick sweep.
Lock is going to be at 11:00 am EST again and the games are:
Fnatic (57% implied win probability) vs Version1
Liquid (71%) vs Vikings
Sentinels (75%) vs NUTURN
Jaemin, Sinatraa, and wippie are all in the player pool. None of them are playing, do not put them in your lineups.
I’ve tabulated every team’s FP/r. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account odds at all, and use stats from the last 2 months. For teams like NUTURN, this means most of their stats are from games in Korea, where they were dominant. Just because Lakia has great stats, doesn’t mean that if Sen crush NUTURN he’ll play well. The stats are more useful for comparing within a team. What I mean by that is if you decide you think NUTURN can upset Sen or that low ownership will be worth playing them, then you look and see that Lakia has been their best player so he’s a good play IF they win. Anyways, here are the stats for each team:
Strictly pricing based a few things that jump out at me are:
Pricing looks a bit sharper, there aren’t as many wildly underpriced players on the heavy favorites. Zombs is the notable exception. He doesn’t score that well, but he’s basically free at only $4.2k
We’re coming off of a day where everyone just saw mistic put up the 2nd highest score on the entire slate, and L1nk put up the 5th. They’re both still cheap and FNC and Liquid are both still moderate to heavy favorites. As far as I know, there aren’t any commercial (aka not just one’s someone built for themselves) lineup builders for Valorant, meaning with everyone hand building we’re likely to see more recency bias than we would in other sports, as lineup builders don’t inherently have recency (or any) bias. I expect both player to jump in ownership on Friday. Could they both top frag (or 2nd frag in L1nk’s case) again? Sure I guess, but I think the most likely bet is they return to their usual fragging roles somewhere near or at the bottom of their respective team. It is worth noting though that mistic is only .06 fp/r behind 3rd place on his team, so he is a better bet to frag near the top of his team again than L1nk is (he trails 3rd by .16 fp/r). I like pivoting to guys like Boaster and soulcas instead of mistic and L1nk in GPP’s, who should have lower ownership and better upside for only a little more money.
As for the actual games, I have little to no interest in Vikings or NUTURN. Brazil has been a huge disappointment so far this tournament, and I don’t expect it to be fixed any time soon. Vikings (and Sharks before they were eliminated) run outdated lineup compositions and can’t make up the difference in raw firepower. NUTURN on the other hand have been a pleasant surprise, but I think Sentinels are just too good. NUTURN barely squeaked by V1, whom Sentinels destroyed in the NA grand final. Plus, NUTURN’s Haven looks super weak, which gives Sentinels basically a free win.
The game I could see the underdog winning in is Fnatic vs V1. V1 already took down the EU champ in Liquid, who’s to say the can’t take down the runner up as well? I do fear that the Liquid series was the peak we’ll see from V1, but they are definitely worth taking a few shots on if you multi-enter. Zellsis and Penny don’t come at that steep of a discount to Derke and Doma, so ownership should be low.
My favorite plays, the players who will make up the majority of my player pool, are:
Good luck on Friday!