Welcome! We’re on Day 2 of Valorant in the Drafkings lobby. Hopefully everyone play Kru and won some money. In case this is your first time playing Valorant DFS, I’m going to leave the quick breakdown of the scoring at the top of the article for the first few. If you read this for Wednesday’s games, you can skip down to The Games. Also, while this article is free to read, there are projections available tonight for subscribers only. So check those out if you’re a subscriber!
If you’re unfamiliar with Valorant, check out this post I made when Fanduel briefly added Valorant DFS (ignore the DFS scoring section, that was the FD scoring). It’ll give you a brief overview. Draftkings DFS product looks to be identical to CS:GO in terms of lineup construction. 6 players, 1 captain, 3 max per team. The scoring is slightly different, let’s take a look:
The main differences from CSGO to Valorant are that kills went from being worth 1.5 to 2, a triple kill bonus was added (only .25), quad kills are only worth 1.5 bonus points, and aces are only worth 3. With kills being increased in value and the multi-kill bonuses being decreased in value, the mutli-kill bonuses (and clutch bonuses because they’re so infrequent) and almost non-factors in most player FP/r. When I did the stats for Wednesday no one had more than .063 FP/r from kill bonuses + clutches. The player who had .063 (gaabx) averages a total of 1.11 FP/r, so the .063 is still basically inconsequential.
You’ll also notice .02 points per point of average combat score (ACS). Draftkings confirmed for me on twitter that it’s ACS across the entire series, so that will be somewhere in the ballpark of 3-5 points or so for most players.
It’s also worth noting that a standard map is 24 rounds and not 30, so in a sweep a player will get 12 points from RNP plus 5 for a sweep for 17 total. This makes the sweep bonus slightly more valuable, but overall I’m a little bit concerned this setup. 17 points on a 24 round map is roughly .70 FP/r. The lowest any player on this slate averages is .95 per round. Of course, a 3rd map means a losing map, but for the good players I’d expect them to score over 17 on most losing maps. That means it’s probably going to be beneficial for your players to play 3 maps. Keep that in mind before you decide to stack a huge favorite hoping for a quick sweep.
Lock is going to be at 11:00 am EST again and the games are:
Version1 (62% implied win probability) vs NUTURN
Fnatic (72%) vs X10
Liquid (XX%)* vs Kru
There are a few players on the slate who won’t be playing, make sure not to play them. Those players are Jammyz, keznit, and jaemin.
*I can’t find odds on any of the big sites for this game as of 9:45 EST Wednesday night, will update when I do get them
I’ve tabulated every team’s FP/r. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account odds at all, and use stats from the last 2 months. For teams like NUTURN, this means most of their stats are from games in Korea, where they were dominant. Just because Lakia has great stats, doesn’t mean that if V1 crush NUTURN he’ll play well. The stats are more useful for comparing within a team. What I mean by that is if you decide you think NUTURN can upset V1 or that low ownership will be worth playing them, then you look and see that Lakia has been their best player so he’s a good play IF they win. Anyways, here are the stats for each team:
Strictly pricing based a few things that jump out at me are:
FNC and Liquid, especially Liquid, are way too cheap outside of their top player. I can’t believe only Scream is above $6.6k for Liquid.
V1 outside of Zellsis and Penny are also super cheap.
NUTURN somehow have 3 guys at 8k or more, should keep ownership fairly low since they’re expensive.
Kru and X10 also are priced up, should have low ownership.
I don’t think X10 stand a chance against FNC. FNC are just too tactically sound, and unless it’s a team like Sen who can just outgun them, they’re nearly impossible to beat. I have virtually 0 interest in X10, maybe a few Patiphan one-offs if I was MME’ing
Hopefully you guys made a bunch of money of Kru Wednesday, either by playing them in DFS, betting on them, or both. I wouldn’t chase them in this spot though. Kru seem to have modeled much of their game after how the EU teams play, which is great except for when they play an EU team. It’s like the JV scrimmaging the Varsity, not only is the Varsity better, but both teams run the same playbook so the JV team can’t even catch them off-guard. It’s really unfortunate luck that Kru has run into 2 EU teams in 3 games (and a really bad tournament format if we’re being honest). I wouldn’t totally go without Kru, I’d stack them in maybe 5-10% of my lineups. But if you’re only hand building a few, you can stick to just Liquid.
Lastly, the one game where the underdog is a bit interesting is V1 vs NUTURN. I’m still really unsure what to make of NUTURN. Sure, they beat Sharks, but I think Sharks are the worst team in the tournament, and NUTURN dropped a map. However, the next 2 maps were fairly dominant, so maybe chalk the first map up to nerves? If NUTURN plays like they did on Ascent, they can keep it close with V1. Still though, I think right now NA and EU are the clear class of the regions, so I’ll be mostly on V1. But I will have a bit of exposure to NUTURN even if I only build a handful of lineups.
Given that I like all the favorites, that means I’m going to be playing a lot of chalk. I do think this early into Valorant we can let other people make mistakes and just play good plays, but it’s still not a bad idea to leave a few extra dollars on the table. Do things like play Jamppi when you can afford Kryptix (not to say Kryptix isn’t a good play, he is, possibly my favorite play) or play Penny captain/Scream flex when you can afford the other way around. Also, keep in mind that for the top fraggers, 3 maps is most likely going to be better for DFS, so maybe prioritize the V1 top fraggers over Scream and Derke if you think that V1 will be the only series to go 3 maps.
Good luck on Thursday, let’s fill those contests!