The playoffs start on Friday, and we’ve got ourselves a great 4 game slate on Draftkings. Lock is earlier than it has been, to account for 4 series in the day, at 7:00 am EDT. Make sure to get those lineups in on time. The games are:

Vision Strikers (59% implied win probability) vs Gambit

G2 (91%) vs Kru

100 Thieves (52%) vs Acend

Sentinels (72%) vs Envy

The Stats

In addition to the normal 3 month data, I’ve also added data for just this tournament. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account odds at all (check out my projections where I do account for odds), they’re just raw stats to compare a team within itself. Basically, I wouldn’t use these stats to decide which team to play, but once you’ve selected the teams you want to play the stats are helpful for deciding who to play on that team.

Vision Strikers

Player Price FP/R 3 Month FP/R Tournament
BuZz 8600 1.29 1.15
stax 7800 1.27 1.09
Rb 7600 1.38 1.53
Lakia 6800 Don’t Play Don’t Play
k1Ng 4000 1.23 0.86

Lakia’s stats are irrelevant because he only plays Bind. He should not be in your player pool. Now, on Bind he subs in for k1Ng, so be slightly careful, as Bind is Gambit’s most played map. However, VS have so far had opponent specific bans, so they could very well ban Bind against Gambit. I’m planning on playing some K1ng, but not locking him in like I might if he were guaranteed to play the entire series.

As for the actual numbers, Rb is the best play here. He has great stats both over 3 months and during the tournament so far. While his teammates all have deflated FP/r, he’s actually gotten better. Now, they’ve only played 4 maps so this is definitely a small sample size, but it’s worth noting who has been playing well on the biggest stage.

Gambit

Player Price FP/R 3 Month FP/R Tournament
sheydos 9600 1.21 1.36
nAts 8200 1.24 1.49
d3ffo 7400 1.08 1.11
Chronicle 7200 1.14 1.18
Redgar 4000 0.93 1.07

It’s been the nAts and sheydos show so far this tournament for Gambit. nAts in particular has been impressive. Redgar has also been playing well and is an interesting punt play and pivot off k1Ng, who’s likely to be high owned as I assume most people won’t realize K1ng has sub risk.

G2

Player Price FP/R 3 Month FP/R Tournament
nukkye 10200 1.32 1.40
Mixwell 9800 1.08 0.89
AvovA 9200 1.05 1.03
keloqz 8800 1.08 1.20
koldamenta 8000 0.78 0.95

So far in Berlin it’s been nukkye and keloqz stepping up for G2, and because of their weird group setup (they played a double round robin because the 4th team that was supposed to be in their group had visa issues and couldn’t attend) they’ve actually played 10 maps so it’s not that small of a sample size. 10 maps against 2 teams, but 10 maps nonetheless. Mixwell has really struggled so far this tournament.

Kru Esports

Player Price FP/R 3 Month FP/R Tournament
Mazino 5800 1.24 0.89
NagZ 5400 1.19 0.90
delz1k 5000 0.83 0.75
Klaus 4800 0.95 0.75
keznit 4600 1.35 1.16

Don’t get too caught up in the drop in overall stats for Kru, they’ve gone from almost never losing a map in their region to being 4-3 in the group stage. Their prices are all super cheap, but keznit still shouldn’t be at the bottom, he’s their best FP/r guy. If you stack Kru, him, Mazino, and NagZ are the best stacking options.

100 Thieves

Player Price FP/R 3 Month FP/R Tournament
Asuna 8400 1.21 1.20
Ethan 6200 1.03 1.25
nitr0 5600 1.12 1.11
Hiko 4600 0.98 1.03
steel 4400 0.87 0.73

Is Ethan finally taking over as the star player those of us who follow CSGO thought he’d be when he made the switch? It looks like he might be, as he’s been 100T’s best player so far this event (again, small sample size of 5 maps). It’s also worth noting that even though Steel is still playing some Kay/0, his elevated assists haven’t been enough to pull his FP/r up, and he has very few assists in his Killjoy games meaning his overall assist numbers are about average. Ethan, nitr0, and Hiko all look underpriced here, especially with 100T as ever so slight favorites.

Acend

Player Price FP/R 3 Month FP/R Tournament
cNed 10000 1.46 1.35
zeek 7600 1.20 1.23
starxo 6400 1.11 1.01
BONECOLD 4400 0.95 0.72
Kiles 4000 0.83 0.59

cNed hasn’t been able to completely take over in Berlin like he has so many times before, but he still has a very strong FP/r. That said his price is astronomical, so I’d expect his ownership to actually be fairly low. Everyone else on the team looks to be priced about right, and nothing is out of order in terms of FP/r vs pricing within the team.

Sentinels

Player Price FP/R 3 Month FP/R Tournament
Tenz 9400 1.43 1.48
SicK 9000 1.13 1.17
ShahZaM 7400 1.08 1.09
dapr 7200 0.98 0.62
zombs 4200 0.90 0.85

The only thing really worth noting here is that dapr has struggled big time in Berlin. Everyone else is playing at about their usual levels. Sen, like G2, played in the weird 3 team group, so their sample size is also 10 maps, so I put a little more stock into dapr’s struggles as being “real” than just having a bad map, which could easily throw off stats if the sample size was 4 maps. That said, I’d expect him to bounce back at least a bit, so I wouldn’t completely rule him out of your GPP pool.

Envy

Player Price FP/R 3 Month FP/R Tournament
Victor 7000 1.06 1.18
yay 6600 1.44 1.57
crashies 5200 1.22 1.34
Marved 4800 1.11 1.03
FNS 4200 0.87 0.66

Envy again have similar numbers to their 3 month numbers, and they are a small sample size team, having gone 4-0 thru 2 group stage games. yay is the star here, and crashies is also too cheap within the team.

My Opinions

Envy had the luck of the draw in the group stage, only needing to beat Vivo Keyd and Kru to advance (and looking really shaky in doing so). Everything balances out though, as they certainly got the short end of the stick in matching up against Sentinels in the 1st round of the playoffs. While I think the lines for cross-region play are generally very soft, unfortunately for Envy this is an inter-region matchup that we’ve seen many times before, and Sentinels have pretty much dominated. Envy are actually the first (and only) team I’m crossing off my list for stacking on this slate. I don’t mind a Yay or crashies one off, but with 4 games on the slate I don’t think we need to stack Envy.

The other team you might think I’d rule out of stacking is Kru. However, I’m not doing so. I think the 91/9 line is way too big of a line. I’m not sure why, but Kru are continually disrespected by Vegas. They are the best team out of Latin America, as they’ve now beaten Brazilian teams both in Iceland and here in Berlin, yet they’re continually big underdogs against those Brazilian teams. That definitely translates here, as they should in my opinion be more like 80/20 or even 75/25 underdogs against G2. Sure G2 just became the first team to take a series of Sentinels at a lan, but that was also a nearly meaningless series (only mattered for seeding) only played because of the 3 team group. I still think G2 are the weakest team to qualify out of Europe/CIS/Turkey, and I think Kru have a real shot to upset them on Friday. Also, Kru are so cheap that a Kru stack could pay off even if they only win 1 map (or even lose 2 close maps). Kru allow you to fit whoever else you want.

Speaking of whoever else, I like cNed a lot in tournaments. He is technically and “underdog” in what’s really a coinflip game against 100T, yet is the 2nd most expensive player on the slate. That alone should keep his ownership down, and with his massive upside I love him as a GPP play.

Vision Strikers are another team that I like as a stack, particularly stacking them without k1Ng in the hopes that they play Bind. A lot of players have said that they think VS should be the favorites to win the tournament because of how well coordinated they are with their ability usage. Korea was/is a super strong region in Overwatch, and the coordination necessary for that game has clearly translated to Valorant.

Lastly, to touch on how I plan to build, I’m going to run exclusively 3/2/1 (no opponents in the same lineup) lineups on this slate. I think 3/3 is also fine, the additional assists (many non-damaging abilities like flashes, heals, and more provide assists in Valorant) combined with fewer saves create enough upside with running double 3 stacks can often work. However, the upside still isn’t quite as high as with a 3/2/1, and with the increased tournament size I think you might need a bit more upside than in the normal, small tournaments.

One last note, winning too fast is very much a thing in Valorant compared to CSGO. Kills are worth more in Valorant, and I already mentioned the increased assists. Every single play on the slate averages over the .5 FP/r that are given for rounds not played, in fact the average FP/r is 1.12. For contrast, on Thursday’s CSGO slate, 9/19 (not counting Brehze, I didn’t pull his stats since he wasn’t playing) players on the slate averaged under the .5 FP/r mark, and the average for the slate was only .51 FP/r. Basically, it’s a lot more likely in Valorant to have a team that goes 3 maps outscore a team that wins in a sweep than it is in CSGO. It’s not a guarantee by any means, the lost map still needs to be close, but it happens fairly regularly.

That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!

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