It’s day 2 from Berlin, and we have some big mismatches on tap for this 3 gamer. Lock is at 9:00 am EDT again and the games are:

Vision Strikers (90% implied win probability) vs Paper Rex

Gambit (91%) vs Crazy Raccoon

Envy (83%) vs Vivo Keyd

The Stats

I’ve tabulated every team’s FP/r over the past 3 months. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account odds at all (check out my projections where I do account for odds), they’re just raw stats to compare a team within itself. Basically, I wouldn’t use these stats to decide which team to play, but once you’ve selected the teams you want to play the stats are helpful for deciding who to play on that team.

Vision Strikers

Player Price FP/R
BuZz 9400 1.33
stax 8800 1.31
Rb 8400 1.34
Lakia* 8000 1.29
k1Ng* 7200 1.32

*Lakia only plays bind, DO NOT PLAY HIM. He comes in for K1ng so playing K1ng is also a risk. Both teams in this matchup are comfortable on Bind, although it doesn’t seem like a “go to” for either team. Mako plays every map but is missing from the player pool. The scoring here is remarkable flat.  Make sure to get some Buzz when you stack VS as just because he’s most expensive doesn’t mean he can’t be the one who pops off.

Paper Rex

Player Price FP/R
d4v41 7000 1.26
f0rsakeN 6600 1.58
shiba 5000 0.82
mindfreak 4400 1.12
Benkai 4000 1.10

It’s forsakeN and then it’s everyone else for Paper Rex. I still probably won’t play anyone here, but you could maybe get away with a forsakeN one off.

Gambit

Player Price FP/R
sheydos 9600 1.25
nAts 9000 1.22
d3ffo 8200 1.08
Chronicle 7800 1.12
Redgar 6200 0.95

Pricing looks about right here, all 5 guys are in play given their massive odds.

Crazy Raccoon

Player Price FP/R
Fisker 6000 1.28
neth 5600 1.02
Medusa* 5200 1.30
ade* 4800 1.02
Bazzi* 4600 1.37

Crazy Raccoon runs a 7(!!!) man roster, all 3 of Medusa, ade, and Bazzi sub out on certain maps. Only Fisker and neth (and Munchkin actually but he’s not even on the slate) are safe from sub risk, at least based on what CR was running in Japan. I wouldn’t play anyone from CR anyways given the matchup, but if you really want to keep it to Fisker and/or neth.

Envy

Player Price FP/R
Victor 9200 1.04
yay 8600 1.42
crashies 7800 1.20
Marved 7400 1.11
FNS 5400 0.90

Victor seems a bit overpriced here, while crashies, marved and yay are all likely a bit underpriced. Again, all 5 guys are in play.

Vivo Keyd

Player Price FP/R
heat 7600 1.41
ntk 6800 1.15
murizzz 5800 0.89
JhoW 4800 0.72
v1xen 4200 0.96

Pricing looks about right, heat is far and away the top player here. I’m not touching VK though and even heat isn’t good value at his price.

My Opinions

I’m going to be mixing and matching from the favorites on this slate. forsakeN from Paper Rex is the only underdog I’m even considering. If you use an optimizer I’d say turn your randomness way up and build 3/2/1 or 3/3 from all the favorites. These are all mismatches, and anyone can pop off in mismatches. Good luck on Saturday!

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