It’s day 2 from Berlin, and we have some big mismatches on tap for this 3 gamer. Lock is at 9:00 am EDT again and the games are:
Vision Strikers (90% implied win probability) vs Paper Rex
Gambit (91%) vs Crazy Raccoon
Envy (83%) vs Vivo Keyd
I’ve tabulated every team’s FP/r over the past 3 months. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account odds at all (check out my projections where I do account for odds), they’re just raw stats to compare a team within itself. Basically, I wouldn’t use these stats to decide which team to play, but once you’ve selected the teams you want to play the stats are helpful for deciding who to play on that team.
*Lakia only plays bind, DO NOT PLAY HIM. He comes in for K1ng so playing K1ng is also a risk. Both teams in this matchup are comfortable on Bind, although it doesn’t seem like a “go to” for either team. Mako plays every map but is missing from the player pool. The scoring here is remarkable flat. Make sure to get some Buzz when you stack VS as just because he’s most expensive doesn’t mean he can’t be the one who pops off.
It’s forsakeN and then it’s everyone else for Paper Rex. I still probably won’t play anyone here, but you could maybe get away with a forsakeN one off.
Pricing looks about right here, all 5 guys are in play given their massive odds.
Crazy Raccoon runs a 7(!!!) man roster, all 3 of Medusa, ade, and Bazzi sub out on certain maps. Only Fisker and neth (and Munchkin actually but he’s not even on the slate) are safe from sub risk, at least based on what CR was running in Japan. I wouldn’t play anyone from CR anyways given the matchup, but if you really want to keep it to Fisker and/or neth.
Victor seems a bit overpriced here, while crashies, marved and yay are all likely a bit underpriced. Again, all 5 guys are in play.
Pricing looks about right, heat is far and away the top player here. I’m not touching VK though and even heat isn’t good value at his price.
I’m going to be mixing and matching from the favorites on this slate. forsakeN from Paper Rex is the only underdog I’m even considering. If you use an optimizer I’d say turn your randomness way up and build 3/2/1 or 3/3 from all the favorites. These are all mismatches, and anyone can pop off in mismatches. Good luck on Saturday!