Master Berlin kicks off on Friday, and Valorant is back in the lobby! There’s a nice $2k to first tournament in the lobby with a 21 entry max for Friday’s 3 game slate. Lock is at 9:00 am EDT and the games are:
Acend (60% implied win probability) vs SuperMassive Blaze
G2 (88%) vs F4Q
100 Thieves (87%) vs Havan Liberty
I’ve tabulated every team’s FP/r over the past 3 months. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account odds at all (check out my projections where I do account for odds), they’re just raw stats to compare a team within itself. Basically, I wouldn’t use these stats to decide which team to play, but once you’ve selected the teams you want to play the stats are helpful for deciding who to play on that team.
Everything looks about right in terms of pricing here, cNed is far and away the top player and he’s priced like it.
Again, pricing looks about right. Russ and Izzy are basically interchangeable up top. Brave is a bit too expensive compared to Turko, but both should definitely be a tier below the top fraggers.
nukkye is the star here, with Mixwell, AvovA, and keloqz all scoring basically the same behind him. G2 are priced way up, as they should be given their status as massive favorites.
Esperanza looks to be significantly underpriced relative to the rest of F4Q, but they’re all so cheap it doesn’t really matter. Playing any of them (or stacking them) basically frees you up to play whoever else you want assuming you aren’t game stacking since G2 are the only team that’s really priced up.
Nitro looks a bit underpriced relative to his teammates here. Now, the whole team is severely underpriced besides Asuna if you look at their odds to win, but Nitro is particularly so.
Pricing looks about right within the team. Shion and krain are the studs.
It’s pretty obvious that 100T are going to be massive chalk, and they deserve it. Brazil as a region was massively disappointing at Iceland, and Havan Liberty are the runners up from the region. Don’t overthink it, load up on plenty of 100T. What you can do to get different is play Steel and Ethan. I’d imagine they’re the 2 lowest owned of 100T, and in a stomp anyone can score well. Also, if Steel continues to play a lot of Kay-O, he should end up with a ton of assists and thus a strong fantasy score. Having a guy who can get a lot of fantasy points without taking kills from his teammates is a huge help particularly in 3 stacks.
G2 are the other obvious play, but they’re at least priced appropriately. They are also playing a Korean team. Korea looked pretty strong in Iceland, so I actually give F4Q a better chance to win than HL. While I’ll definitely have some G2, I’m likely going to come in under the field, as I prefer to pair either Blaze or Acend with my 100T.
Speaking of Blaze and Acend, I’m not quite sure what Acend has done to deserve to be favorites here. When these teams met during challengers, Blaze got the 2-1 victory. This game should at least be a coinflip if not Blaze favored. That said, although my exposure will be tilted towards Blaze, I’ll still have plenty of Acend, as cNed is the highest FP/r player on the slate. He can frag out even in losses too so I don’t even necessarily need Acend to win for him to be a great one off.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!