Master Berlin kicks off on Friday, and Valorant is back in the lobby! There’s a nice $2k to first tournament in the lobby with a 21 entry max for Friday’s 3 game slate. Lock is at 9:00 am EDT and the games are:

Acend (60% implied win probability) vs SuperMassive Blaze

G2 (88%) vs F4Q

100 Thieves (87%) vs Havan Liberty

The Stats

I’ve tabulated every team’s FP/r over the past 3 months. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account odds at all (check out my projections where I do account for odds), they’re just raw stats to compare a team within itself. Basically, I wouldn’t use these stats to decide which team to play, but once you’ve selected the teams you want to play the stats are helpful for deciding who to play on that team.

Acend

Player Price FP/R
cNed 10400 1.53
zeek 7800 1.23
starxo 7200 1.15
Kiles 6600 0.93
BONECOLD 6000 0.99

Everything looks about right in terms of pricing here, cNed is far and away the top player and he’s priced like it.

Blaze

Player Price FP/R
Russ 8800 1.30
Izzy 8400 1.32
Brave 7400 1.10
Turko 6200 1.05
pAura 4800 0.77

Again, pricing looks about right. Russ and Izzy are basically interchangeable up top. Brave is a bit too expensive compared to Turko, but both should definitely be a tier below the top fraggers.

G2

Player Price FP/R
nukkye 10000 1.31
Mixwell 9200 1.13
AvovA 8600 1.06
keloqz 8200 1.06
koldamenta 6800 0.74

nukkye is the star here, with Mixwell, AvovA, and keloqz all scoring basically the same behind him. G2 are priced way up, as they should be given their status as massive favorites.

F4Q

Player Price FP/R
Bunny 5800 1.23
zunba 5400 1.26
fiveK 5000 1.10
Esperanza 4400 1.23
Efina 4000 0.81

Esperanza looks to be significantly underpriced relative to the rest of F4Q, but they’re all so cheap it doesn’t really matter. Playing any of them (or stacking them) basically frees you up to play whoever else you want assuming you aren’t game stacking since G2 are the only team that’s really priced up.

100 Thieves

Player Price FP/R
Asuna 9600 1.21
Ethan 8000 1.00
nitr0 7600 1.12
Hiko 7000 0.98
steel 5600 0.89

Nitro looks a bit underpriced relative to his teammates here. Now, the whole team is severely underpriced besides Asuna if you look at their odds to win, but Nitro is particularly so.

Havan Liberty

Player Price FP/R
shion 6400 1.29
krain 5200 1.30
liazzi 4600 1.12
pleets 4200 1.00
Myssen 4000 0.92

Pricing looks about right within the team. Shion and krain are the studs.

My Opinions

It’s pretty obvious that 100T are going to be massive chalk, and they deserve it. Brazil as a region was massively disappointing at Iceland, and Havan Liberty are the runners up from the region. Don’t overthink it, load up on plenty of 100T. What you can do to get different is play Steel and Ethan. I’d imagine they’re the 2 lowest owned of 100T, and in a stomp anyone can score well. Also, if Steel continues to play a lot of Kay-O, he should end up with a ton of assists and thus a strong fantasy score. Having a guy who can get a lot of fantasy points without taking kills from his teammates is a huge help particularly in 3 stacks.

G2 are the other obvious play, but they’re at least priced appropriately. They are also playing a Korean team. Korea looked pretty strong in Iceland, so I actually give F4Q a better chance to win than HL. While I’ll definitely have some G2, I’m likely going to come in under the field, as I prefer to pair either Blaze or Acend with my 100T.

Speaking of Blaze and Acend, I’m not quite sure what Acend has done to deserve to be favorites here. When these teams met during challengers, Blaze got the 2-1 victory. This game should at least be a coinflip if not Blaze favored. That said, although my exposure will be tilted towards Blaze, I’ll still have plenty of Acend, as cNed is the highest FP/r player on the slate. He can frag out even in losses too so I don’t even necessarily need Acend to win for him to be a great one off.

That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!

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