Now that NA has finished, DK has turned their attention to EU, which hasn’t finished yet. We have a 2 game slate on Monday, with lock at 11 am EDT. The games are:
Acend (68% implied win probability) vs Gambit
G2 (62%) vs Supermassive Blaze
I’ve tabulated every team’s FP/r over the past 2 months. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account odds at all (check out my projections where I do account for odds), they’re just raw stats to compare a team within itself. Basically, I wouldn’t use these stats to decide which team to play, but once you’ve selected the teams you want to play the stats are helpful for deciding who to play on that team.
A lot of people think cNed is the best player in the world. The stats seem to back that up, as his 1.62 FP/r is insane. Behind him, Zeek and starxo score basically the same.
Gambit are a much more balanced team, with sheydos, d3ffo, and Chronicle all scoring basically the same and nAts not too far behind. Chronicle is the Jett player and Chronicle also sometimes plays duelist, with sheydos mostly plays sage and nAts switches between Viper and Cypher for the most part.
nukkye is the star here, with Mixwell, AvovA, and keloqz all scoring basically the same behind him. Pricing doesn’t really matter much on the slate so the discount you get on keloqz shouldn’t make that much of a difference in terms of how good of a play he is.
Blaze are carried by two players in terms of FP/r, Russ and Izzy. There’s a fairly steep drop down to Brave in 3rd and he is a decent amount above 4th and way above 5th. Pricing looks right although again, it doesn’t really matter much on this slate because pricing is loose overall.
If you remember way back when Valorant debuted on DK, during the first ever inter-region LAN in Iceland, I talked a lot about how Vegas was just guessing. Well the same is somewhat true for this slate, because the “EU” region is actually EU + Turkey + CIS (Russia and former Soviet countries basically). Acend are from EU, Gambit are from CIS, G2 are from EU, and Blaze are from Turkey. Each has recently dominated their respective region (with G2 only losing to Acend). EU is generally considered the best of the 3, hence those teams being favorites, but at the end of the day we don’t really know as there is little crossover history between the regions.
Now, the average DFS player likely knows very little about these teams, honestly I don’t know much about Blaze or Gambit either, I’ve seen maybe 20 rounds of gameplay from the teams combined. What most people will do is see the lines being decently large in favor of Acend and G2 and lock them in. It’s pretty easy to do with the loose pricing on this slate. I’ll probably have a couple lineups like this just to cover my bases, but I’m going to have a lot of exposure to each underdog, including some double dog lineups. The favorites are likely to come in highly overowned.
I’m going to stick to 3/3 builds with maybe an exception for a few cNed one-off’s, he’s that good.
Good luck on Monday!