Friday we have another 2 game slate from NA challengers, with lock at 5pm EDT. I don’t know why Draftkings doesn’t combine EU and NA for these slates to give us 4+ games, they really should. If you agree, I tweeted this advice at them so the more people who support that the more likely they actually do it. Toss the tweet a like if you agree. Anyway, the games are:
Sentinels (70% implied win probability) vs 100T
Envy (60%) vs Xset
Don’t play Mummay or Sinatraaa
I’ve tabulated every team’s FP/r over the past 2 months. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account odds at all (check out my projections where I do account for odds), they’re just raw stats to compare a team within itself. Basically, I wouldn’t use these stats to decide which team to play, but once you’ve selected the teams you want to play the stats are helpful for deciding who to play on that team.
Tenz is still the clear top player here, but it’s worth noting SicK has (just barely) reclaimed his number 2 spot on the team. SicK’s fairly agent dependent for his stats, basically you don’t want him to play Sage, where he understandably plays much more conservatively than when he’s on a duelist or initiator. So far he’s played 5 different agents on 5 different maps, only playing Sage on Icebox. Sen did ban Icebox the last time they played 100T, so that could be good news for playing SicK today.
Asuna and Nitr0 are still the studs here, but they’re not who I want to focus on. The player to focus on here is Steel. So far this tournament Steel has played Kay/O on Haven (twice) and Ascent (and Cypher on Breeze). I would imagine he’ll play Kay/O on split and bind as well, Icebox could go either way since it’s a bit more open of a map and Kay/O thrives in tight spaces. Regardless, when Steel plays Kay/O he’s an absolute assist machine. He averages .76 assists per round. That of course means he averages .76 FP/r just from assists. His overall FP/r on Kay/O has been 1.46. Now, it’s definitely a small sample size (3 maps) but the assists have been there every map he’s played it, I don’t think it’s a fluke. Steel is suddenly a very viable fantasy play despite what his overall stats may say. Also, I wanted to briefly mention Ethan, who has also rapidly improved his stats this tournament. Are we finally starting to see his CSGO skill translate? All 5 players from 100T are viable in this spot.
Yay’s numbers have come down a bit since starting with Envy, but he’s still a very strong fantasy play. He and Crashies have separated themselves as the top 2 here. Victor really struggles in terms of FP/r when he plays Skye, but Envy seem committed to having him play her. While he’s technically below Marved in FP/r I still slightly prefer Victor as I do think he has more upside on the change he gets all his maps on a duelist.
Outside of Zekken your guess is as good as mine. Everyone scores basically the same. The .07 FP/r gap between last and 2nd comes out to a 5 FP difference, aka 2.5 kills worth, over 72 rounds (which is what a 3 map series where each map goes 24 rounds would come out to). That’s obviously well within a normal amount of variance.
Pricing is again very loose, which means underdogs are again likely to go underowned. Both underdogs are solid plays, especially 100T. Keep in mind that the Sen/100T matchup is virtually meaningless. Both teams are qualified for Berlin already, and the loser still gets a lower bracket opportunity. While I of course expect full effort from both teams, we could see some experimental lineups, especially from Sen. Sen already admitted to experimenting during the last tournament (where they fell to the lower bracket before ultimately winning) and I think they’re much more likely than 100T to experiment. 100T are a strong GPP play.
In the Envy/Xset game, I’d expect everyone other than Zekken to be very low owned on the Xset side. I again like them in GPPs. Unfortunately we only get to make 7 lineups, so I’ll probably only have a couple with Xset, as I do like 100T slightly better.
In terms of lineups construction, I’m likely to stick with 3/3. I’d consider Zekken one-off, but I don’t really like Asuna one off. Asuna’s success typically drives 100T’s success, so I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where he does well but 100T doesn’t. Tenz or Yay one-off if you’re stacking the underdog is definitely not a bad play, and is an interesting way to hedge an underdog stack in SE. If 100T win in 3 maps, maybe they have the top 2 scorers and then Tenz is 3rd. That’s a perfectly reasonable outcome.
Good luck on Friday!