Thursday we have a 2 game slate from NA challengers, with lock at 5pm EDT. The games are:
TSM (72% implied win probability) vs Rise
Faze (63%) vs Luminosity.
Moose is back in for Luminosity, and Ban is benched. Don’t play Ban.
I’ve tabulated every team’s FP/r over the past 2 months. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account odds at all (check out my projections where I do account for odds), they’re just raw stats to compare a team within itself. Basically, I wouldn’t use these stats to decide which team to play, but once you’ve selected the teams you want to play the stats are helpful for deciding who to play on that team.
Wardell is the superstar here, behind him it’s basically a toss-up. Note that for Leviathan some of his stats come from his old team. He’s held his own for TSM but I’d consider him about equal with the other 3 non-Wardell players.
Supamen is continually underpriced here. Granted, if you’re stacking Rise price doesn’t really matter, but don’t be afraid to leave some salary on the table to play supamen.
It’s corey and babybay up top for Faze and then the other 3 players are about the same. Again, don’t feel compelled to play Rawkus to use as much salary as you can, BabyJ and ZachaREEE are just as good of plays.
Moose’s numbers look startlingly bad, but that’s because he’s only played in yesterday’s 2-0 loss to Xset over the past 2 months. He should come in right around the rest of his team (besides YaBoiDre) once he gets a few wins in his recent stats. FWIW he had the 2nd best KD differential (-9) on the team against Xset. However, he is now playing sentinel, which could cut down on his assists and thus FP/r as he used to play mostly Sova.
Pricing is loose on this slate, it’s easy to fit favorite/favorite lineups. I’d expect most lineups to be favorite/favorite as both are pretty large favorites. That means I’m going to be on the underdogs. Both from an ownership perspective and an actual Valorant perspective I like both underdogs. I think it’s fair that TSM and Faze are favorites, but I think both are too big of favorites.
People will look at the 2-0 Faze over LG from July 31st and not dig any deeper. Sure Faze won 2-0, but both maps were OT, and ban bot fragged for LG. Now, they have moose back in the fold which in my opinion is an upgrade. I think this game should be more like 55/45 in Faze’s favor, and I’ll have a bunch of LG (by a bunch I mean probably like 5 or 6 out of 13 lineups). Make sure to get some exposure to Moose in LG lineups, and YaBoiDre should be locked into all of them. LG doesn’t win without him playing well.
I think TSM is more like 67/33 against Rise, which isn’t really a huge change from the current odds. I’ll probably only have 3-4 Rise lineups but I still think that will be over the field.
For general strategy, I’m running all 3/3 and will likely leave a ton of money on the table in a lot of my lineups. I’m not concerned about salary on this slate as very few players are priced up and guys like supamen are at the bottom of their team even though they’re the top fragger per FP/r. As for the 3/3, every tournament is small field, I don’t think it’s worth it to try to get cute with 3/2/1.
Good luck on Thursday!