Friday brings us a 2 game slate of NA Valorant. Lock is at 5 pm EDT and the games are:
100T (60% implied win probability) vs Envy
Sentinels (82%) vs Xset
I’ve tabulated every team’s FP/r over the past 2 months. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account odds at all (check out my projections where I do account for odds), they’re just raw stats to compare a team within itself. A lot of these teams also have small sample sizes, as many didn’t play official matches between the last NA Challengers and the qualifiers for this one:
Pricing is still a little off on 100T. Ethan continues to be priced 2nd although he’s 4th in FP/r. nitr0 and Hiko are both underpriced and will definitely be popular. Asuna has reestablished himself as the top scorer here after an absolutely massive performance including setting the Valorant pro record for most kills on a map (48) in a 6 OT slugfest (each OT is only 2 rounds) on Thursday. Expect 100T to be popular.
Pricing looks about right here, FNS and mummAy should probably be switched but realistically you don’t really need to go to them on this slate unless you’re trying to get a little different, and if you play either of them they’re so cheap it probably doesn’t matter which one is more expensive.
It’s been a while since we’ve seen a big game out of SicK, and his numbers as a whole have really fallen. For a while he was Sen’s best player in terms of FP/r, at least back when Fanduel Valorant existed, although bomb plants/defuses likely factored into that. dapr has been playing well lately, so he/Tenz/ShahZaM make for an interesting 3 stack.
Xset are basically free, and Sentinels did look mortal against Gen.G. They’re definitely testing some strategies out, as frankly they don’t care that much about this tournament after winning the first major without dropping a single map. I think they’re more vulnerable than they otherwise would be because of the testing/slightly lackadaisical attitude. It’s worth playing an Xset lineup or two.
I think the 100T/Envy line is wrong. 100T are constantly overestimated by Vegas, I don’t think they’re a better team than Envy. It’s definitely a close matchup, but I think Envy should be 55/45 to win especially since they’ve added Marved. 100T have two weak spots in Steel’s fragging (he’s a very solid IGL but very poor fragger at this point in his career, just look at his FP/r), and Ethan. Ethan has really struggled since coming over from CSGO, which is surprising since I’d say he was NA’s best CSGO player at the time of switching. It’s likely harder for him to make the changes he needs to be great in Valorant since he was really strong in CSGO whereas some of the other players who weren’t quite as good as CSGO likely aren’t so stuck in their ways (just speculating here). I personally think Envy are the 2nd best team in NA (and 100T are 3rd). This means I’m going to probably run 6 or 7 of my 10 lineups as Envy stacks and only a couple as 100T.
I’m also planning on running all 3/3 lineups. These tournaments are so small that I really don’t think you need the slightly higher upside 3/2/1 brings. Hell 3/3 keeps winning 4 game slates. That mean most of my lineups will be Envy/Sen, with a couple 100T/Sen and 1 or two Envy/Xset.
That’s it for me, good luck on Friday!