We’re back to NA Valorant on Thursday, as NA Challengers kicks off. We have a 4 game slate that locks at 3pm EST. The games are:
100T (54% implied win probability) vs Version1
Envy (73%) vs Kansas City Pioneers
Xset (67%) vs Rise
Sentinels (90%) vs Gen.G
I’ve tabulated every team’s FP/r over the past 2 months. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account odds at all (check out my projections where I do account for odds), they’re just raw stats to compare a team within itself. A lot of these teams also have small sample sizes, as many didn’t play official matches between the last NA Challengers and the qualifiers for this one. Only Pioneers and Rise have played more than 20 maps in the past 2 maps, and much of that was against T2/3 competition. Anyways, with that in mind, here are the numbers:
Nothing that weird with the stats here, nitr0 is definitely underpriced, Hiko also looks to be a decent value. Ethan is probably a little bit better than his stats show, but he hasn’t really dominated like many expected after he came over from EG’s CSGO team.
Wippie is back but Zellsis is suspended for “poor conduct” while he was in Iceland (I believe it stems from an incident in pubs, he is in the player pool, don’t play him). Thief has been brought over from Luminosity during Zellsis’ suspension, and if anyone played Fanduel Valorant you’ll probably remember Thief from that. He was one of Luminosity’s best players, and looks to be playing duelists for Version1. Penny’s stats are likely a bit lower than they’ll end up, and Version1 does have a worse winning percentage than most teams on the slate considering they played in Iceland. effys may be a bit underpriced.
Everything looks about right for Envy in terms of pricing, Marved may be a tad underpriced.
I’ll be honest I don’t know much of anything about the Pioneers. from the stats it looks like they’re priced about right, Oderus may be a tad underpriced but that’s really it.
Xset are a team that I think small sample size is definitely biasing. BcJ’s stats will likely come up a bit and dephh and Ayrin may go down. I definitely wouldn’t not play BcJ or anything because of the stats. All 5 players have very strong FP/r numbers.
supamen looks a bit underpriced relative to his teammates here, as does neptune.
Sick’s FP/r numbers are slightly low lately. I was surprised by this as most of his stats come from their dominant run in Iceland. Tenz really was carrying apparently though, as he’s by far the top FP/r player here. SicK and ShahZaM are also definitely good plays though. I’m glad dapr and zombs are also priced up (for their stats) so they aren’t just easy value options. Don’t play Sinatraa he is no longer on the team.
I do think NaturE is a bit underpriced here relative to his teammates, but let’s be real no one is playing Gen.G on this slate. I do think the 90/10 is a tad extreme but I’m still not interested in Gen.G if the odds are 85/15 with how small the tournaments are.
I really like the pricing today, there aren’t many egregiously underpriced players, and most teams are in just about the right order.
I expected more “I know who this guy is” bias in EU than there was on Wednesday. I mentioned that because my inherent feel is that Version1 might get a bunch of ownership since people know then and they’re cheap. But it seems like Vegas rules still and V1 are slight underdogs. My plan is honestly to let other people make mistakes. That means I’ll have a bunch of Nitr0 and Hiko, likely some Xset value, and then whoever I can fit between Tenz/Sick/Victor/Crashies/zekken/shahzam.
At captain I actually kind of like going mid-range, as there aren’t a ton of super cheap value plays that I love on this slate. I particularly like Nitr0, marved, and ayrin in that group.
Good luck on Thursday!