Draftkings has finally put Valorant back in the lobby, choosing to bring us a slate from EU challengers instead of NA. It really seems like they’re keen on having esports start in the North American morning. Lock is at 8am EDT and the games are:
Liquid (52% implied win probability) vs Fnatic
Guild Esports (57%) vs Team BDS
G2 (59%) vs FPX
Acend (78%) vs Rix.GG Thunder
I’ve tabulated every team’s FP/r over the past 2 months. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account odds at all (check out my projections where I do account for odds), they’re just raw stats to compare a team within itself. Here are the numbers:
Liquid are very cheap outside of ScreaM even though they’re technically favorites. He is priced over $10k while Jamppi is only $6k, very bizarre. Also, soulcas is only $200 than L1nk and Kryptix but he does (slightly for L1nk) outscore them as of late.
Fnatic’s pricing makes more sense than Liquid, but Boaster and Mistic are still priced at extreme discounts. Magnum technically outscores doma of late, so that’s worth considering when you build lineups. People who watched/played DFS during Masters (Iceland LAN) definitely will think of doma as the number 2, but the numbers lately say otherwise.
Outside of Fnatic and Liquid I haven’t seen much of any of these remaining 6 teams so I’m simply looking at what the numbers tell me. Guild (and FPX) both have very small sample sizes, so I wouldn’t put too much stock in these FP/R numbers. Pricing looks basically right although Sayf has outscored Yacine recently. Again, this is a 5 map sample size, so Yacine could easily pop off and show why he’s the more expensive player. Yacine is a duelist player, so he’s definitely expected to frag for Guild.
BDS pricing is way out of whack based on their numbers. Granted, the whole team is fairly close, but rodeN and logaN are the top FP/r players but are priced 3rd and 5th respectively.
G2 made some recent roster changes, so these numbers are definitely likely to flux a bit. Mixwell and nukkye are supposed to be the stars, although right now Mixwell is the clear top fragger. Kolamenta is definitely the bottom fragger but he’s also half the price of his next closest teammate. He’s definitely not that bad, although G2 is pretty overpriced as a whole given they’re only 59% favorites.
FPX is another small sample size team, but Shao has been far and away their top FP/R player. He makes for an interesting one-off or stacking partner with Zyppan and/or one of the cheap guys.
Acend have not lost a map in the last 2 months. Sure, some of that is the early rounds of the open qualifier where they are clearly superior to their competition, but they also beat BDS 2-0. Going as far back as April they have a win over Fnatic, so this team is clearly legit. cNed is far and away the top FP/R player on the slate, and everyone except BONECOLD scores fairly well. Kiles is a great value play at only $6.6k especially since Acend are the biggest favorites on the slate.
Pricing looks basically right here, the top 2 players are priced at the top. Should be almost 0 ownership on any of these guys since they are the biggest underdogs on the slate.
These esports with no optimizer available are really interesting in terms of ownership. Since there are no commercial optimizers available as far as I’m aware, everyone is hand building. This introduces a lot of bias that lineup builders (pretty much) eliminate. Recency bias is huge although it obviously won’t matter for this slate. What does matter though, is name recognition bias. What I mean by that is people tend to click on the guys they know better when they build lineups. I’m assuming almost everyone who is playing Valorant DFS Wednesday has not watched a ton of EU Valorant. I haven’t watched all the much myself to be completely transparent. The two teams DFS players have seen are Liquid and Fnatic, since both were at the major and have been on a bunch of slates. Of course, they’re playing each other so that may cut down on ownership a bit, but I’d expect the cumulative ownership from that game to be much higher than it should be given that it’s a coinflip. Especially on Liquid since they’re so cheap outside of ScreaM. The numbers also say cNed is a much better play than either ScreaM or Derke, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see ScreaM come in with more ownership than cNed.
My main strategy for this slate will be building without a ton of either Liquid or Fnatic. I’ll definitely feature them in some lineups, but I won’t be super heavy on the game as a whole.
The other place I think there’s an edge on Wednesday is FPX and BDS. Both teams have a 40+ percent chance to win per their Vegas odds, yet I would be surprised to see either team have much ownership at all. There are enough mispricings that you don’t really need to use either team, and FPX are honestly a bit overpriced at the top. That makes them both super strong GPP plays.
At captain, I’m looking for raw points. My captain pool will basically consist of the top 2-3 guys from each team. There’s enough value that I don’t think we need to go value captain, unless like in the case of BDS the “value” guys are also the top scorers.
That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!