NA Valorant is back with a 4 game slate that locks at 3 pm EDT Thursday. The games are:
Version1 (56% implied win probability) vs T1
TSM (50%) vs Gen.G
Luminosity (74%) vs Pioneers
Faze (66%) vs Rise
Don’t play Moose, who no longers plays for Luminosity, or Jmoh who is out due to illness for Pioneers. Jammyz is standing in for Jmoh but isn’t in the player pool.
I’ve tabulated every team’s FP/r over the past 2 months. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account odds at all (check out my projections where I do account for odds), they’re just raw stats to compare a team within itself. Basically, I wouldn’t use these stats to decide which team to play, but once you’ve selected the teams you want to play the stats are helpful for deciding who to play on that team.
V1 have some of the worst stats in the tournament as a team, but that’s because they have far and away the lowest recent win rate, having only played 4 matches (5-4 in maps) in the last 2 months. They are a prime example of not using these stats to compare across teams. Also, since Zellsis has been suspended I had to pull his 3 month stats, with include Iceland where V1 obviously faced very difficult competition. That’s why you’ll in the projections he’s still at the top of the team because he has an ever lower win rate than his teammates. Wippie has been playing well since his return, and is super cheap. He’s an interesting value play.
T1 have insane stats, but that’s because all they’ve done over the past 2 months is beat up on lower tier teams in the qualifiers outside of a loss to Envy (which is why they weren’t in Challengers 1). So again just looking within the team, Autimatic has the 2nd best FP/r but is priced lowest. He’s a strong value play if you think T1 are going to win. I expect T1 to be pretty popular though given how crazy their numbers are and the fact that they are almost in a coinflip of a game.
TSM got upset in the round of 32 during the qualifiers of Challengers 1 and then went out and took LeviathanAG from the team that had just beat them. Wardell is still for my money the best AWP in North America, but it remains to be seen if the recent roster changes can elevate TSM to reach the standards a lot of people expected from them after they dominated the very early days of competitive Valorant. Hazed is an interesting play as he’s 3rd in FP/r yet comes in at the bottom of the team’s pricing.
NaturE has come into this team and picked up right where he left off, as a strong if not super flashly FP/r player. He stands out here in terms of comparing is FP/r and price, I definitely like him in GPP’s. Shawn is still the star, and his $9k salary isn’t too expensive given how much value is out there on the slate.
LG is priced up, and deservedly so as they are easily the biggest favorites on the slate. Their team pricing is fairly out of line though as ban has the worst FP/r but is highest priced. I will put in the slight caveat that he is their Jett player, which usually means he’s supposed to be a top fragger, but that’s not what the stats show. Instead they show that YaBoiDre is a stud. Now he’s only $400 cheaper than ban, but again there are plenty of value plays to help fit his salary on this slate. TiGG and Aproto are both decent plays in the midrange.
I left jmoh’s stats in to show that he’s been their best player, but he is not playing as he deals with an ear infection that is impacting his hearing. Instead, Jammyz will be standing in, but isn’t in the player pool. Jammyz is evidently a professional substitute, as you may remember him from his time playing for V1 in Iceland since Wippie couldn’t get a visa. Jammyz played well in that tournament and him subbing here should already be accounted for in the odds. If I play any Pioneers (which is doubtful) Oderus would be my top target.
BabyBay gets most of the notoriety for Faze, with his insane aggression and flashy Jett plays (think arT in CSGO only he’s playing a character that has the ability to dash forward). However, it’s actually Corey who has the best recent stats. Faze as a whole are underpriced given their stats as favorites and are likely to be fairly chalky. Rawkus and ZachaREEE are both really solid value plays.
The reason Faze are underpriced is because Rise are priced like favorites. I honestly think the odds got switched around in DK’s system or something, because this pricing is flat out wrong. That said, Shanks and supamen are an interesting GPP stack because Rise as a team should have virtually 0 ownership given the pricing error.
With only a max of 10 lineups per person, I’m not going to get too crazy in trying to be contrarian. I’ll let other people make mistakes and/or differentiate in a couple of spots in my lineup(s) instead of the whole thing. That means I’m going to take advantage of the mispricing on Faze. I’ll be loaded up on Faze and will look to get different elsewhere.
I actually think V1 might be slightly contrarian given their weak stats and recent performance, but keep in mind Zellsis was suspended for Challengers 1 and he’s now back. I like the V1 side of that game quite a bit, especially since T1 will likely get a good amount of ownership because of how cheap they are.
If you want to get a little nuts, both Pioneers and Rise will likely have next to 0 ownership. Pioneers are tough to play because their best player is out and his sub isn’t in the player pool, so I prefer Rise between the two teams. If you take pricing out of the equation, Rise are definitely worth using in a lineup or two, and would likely have a bit of ownership. But with their crazy pricing they should have virtually 0 ownership. I like them in GPP’s especially with how cheap some of these teams that have 40+ percent win probabilities are.
That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!