Welcome! We have a pretty good DFS slate as DK has given us a $2k to first tournament on the 4 game VCT Game Changers Slate. For those who are unfamiliar, “Game Changers” is the all female division of Valorant. These are the best women’s teams in the world, many of which frequently compete against male teams. The games are:
Shopify Rebellion (52% implied win probabilty) vs Dignitas
CLG Red (65%) vs Just Breathe
Cloud9 White (90%) vs Nothing2Lose
TSM Female (67%) vs GX3
I’ve tabulated every team’s FP/r over the past 2 months. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account odds at all (check out my projections where I do account for odds), they’re just raw stats to compare a team within itself. Here are the numbers:
Diana is the player who is sitting out for SR. I repeat DO NOT PLAY DIANA. She’s confirmed on twitter that she isn’t playing, you can ignore what VLR.gg has listed. VLR has Lorri listed as not playing, but she is, she should have almost no ownership. Han is also super mispriced, she’s the team’s best player with Diana out and is only $5k. I do think missing Diana hurts SR a lot though, they did play Dig once without her already, losing 2-1. I think Dig should be slight favorites here instead of slight underdogs. Han is a great play either way though.
Dig are one of the few teams without egregious pricing errors. Sure, Showliana should be slightly above rain and theia instead of below them, but overall nothing too bad. They are fairly cheap as a team, and would be a prime stack target if there weren’t so many blatantly mispriced players.
Speaking of mispriced players, Clawdia is far too cheap. She’s standing in for CLG, on loan from EG. Not EG women’s, just EG. She’s been playing duelist for them, and along with bENITA has looked dominant. However, you can get Clawdia for $3.2k cheaper. She’s one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Pricing on JB is almost completely upside down. Karra is effectively a free square. She’s their best player but comes in all the way at the bottom of the slate at only $4k. I wouldn’t hesitate to run her and Clawdia in the same lineup either, both are that mispriced.
C9 White are expensive, and will likely be the chalk. However, hopefully the field in general won’t know that their pricing is a bit off. kat isn’t “cheap” in the grand scheme of the slate, but she averages the most FP/r on C9W, yet is priced 4th on the team. In fact, She, meL and alexis are the top scorers yet are the bottom 3 on the team in terms of price. Do keep in mind that “winning too hard” is definitely a thing in Valorant, so if C9W win 13-2, 13-2, as the odds imply they might, they might not put up the best DFS scores.
I don’t know who Katriggered pissed off at DK but they’ve priced her up so far she’s entirely unplayable. Arianarchist is cheap and scores really well, but as such massive underdogs I’m not planning on touching N2L, even in GPPs. There are too many other mispriced players for it to be worth it.
TSM are priced almost right, athxna and Zoe should swap places. athxna is a strong play and I like TSM as a GPP pivot off C9W as a whole. They’re more expensive but smaller favorites, so they shouldn’t see a ton of ownership.
GX3 are priced like they have no shot, but Vegas gives them a 33% win probabilty. I’m definitely going to take a few shots in GPPs. They’re all cheap, but once again the tied-for-top-fragger, Maddie, is at the very bottom of the pricing. The whole team is honestly too cheap, Jan is also a really solid play in addition to Maddie, and it’s not like akaL4CE is expensive at only $6.2k.
There are several blatantly mispriced players on this slate, who should score well in terms of point per dollar whether their teams win or lose (as long as they don’t get crushed). That list for me is:
Those players will make up my core and then I’m going to stack around them. I’ll pretty much avoid playing opponents with the possible exception of Karra and Clawdia, who are both super mispriced.
For my stacks, I’m going to use some C9W, but I like TSM Female as a pivot off of them. TSM Female are overpriced, and should see low ownership as a result. I also like pairing bENITA and Clawdia together quite a bit, and rise is a decent 3rd in that stack. I also may use Karra as the 3rd piece to a “3 stack” from that game instead of rise as Karra is half the price.
Don’t be afraid to leave money (like thousands) on the table this slate because of pricing. Often times we see people pay up, especially for captain, simply because they have the money. Don’t be afraid to run captain Karra while leaving $3k on the table. She has top score of the slate upside, which is what I’m looking for in my captain. Speaking of, here are my favorite captains on the slate:
Those are the players I have projected for the most raw points, and they’ll make up almost all of my captain slots.