Welcome! It’s the first day of NA Last Chance Qualifier for Champions (Worlds). We have a 2 game slate on DK that locks at 3:00 pm EDT. The games are:

100 Thieves (76% implied win probability) vs Gen.G

Xset (77%) vs Luminosity

Note that Steel has been benched by 100T in favor of boi. Boi unfortunately isn’t in the player pool, but don’t play steel. Mkael has been benched by Gen.G in favor of Temperature. Temperature unfortunately isn’t in the player pool, but don’t play Mkael. Ban was benched a while ago by Luminosity, don’t play him.

The Stats

As usual, I’ve tabulated the 3 month stats for all players. Keep in mind that these numbers do not take into account odds at all (check out my projections where I do account for odds), they’re just raw stats to compare a team within itself. Basically, I wouldn’t use these stats to decide which team to play, but once you’ve selected the teams you want to play the stats are helpful for deciding who to play on that team.

100 Thieves

Player Price FP/R 3 Month
Asuna 9400 1.05
Ethan 8600 1.06
nitr0 7600 1.06
Hiko 7200 0.83

It remains to be seen how 100T will chance what they’re doing with boi now in. Nitro is taking over as IGL, which could hurt his fragging. The old version was very balanced, and all 4 players in the pool are worth playing given that they’re big favorites. IF Nitro doesn’t see a drop off in fragging as IGL he looks a bit underpriced.

Gen.G

Player Price FP/R 3 Month
Shawn 7400 0.98
gMd 6000 1.06
koosta 5200 1.00
NaturE 4800 1.22

Nature is severely underpriced here, he’s arguably Gen.G’s best player. I’d also expect Shawn to bounce back and get his numbers up, regardless of what they show currently. Gen.G hasn’t played much in the last 3 months so I wouldn’t put too too much stock in these numbers.

 

Xset

Player Price FP/R 3 Month
zekken 9600 1.53
BcJ 9000 1.10
PureR 8200 0.84
AYRIN 7000 0.79
dephh 6600 1.27

Xset is the superstar here, but it’s dephh who comes in severely underpriced. He’s their 2nd best player in terms of FP/r, yet he’s priced as the bot fragger.

Luminosity

Player Price FP/R 3 Month
YaBoiDre 6200 1.30
dazzLe 5800 1.05
aproto 5400 0.88
TiGG 5000 1.12
moose 4600 0.53

YaBoiDre is the star here. TiGG is a tiny bit underpriced relative to his teammates but they’re all so cheap it doesn’t really matter. Moose has barely played lately, he’s better than the .53 FP/r indicates.

My Opinions

I’m a little surprised by how steep both these lines are. I figured they’d be 65-70%, but upper 70’s feels like a bit much. With tournaments so small though, we can only play a few lineups. It’s hard to get exposure to both underdogs like I would if I had 50+ entries, so I’m going to chose one. The team of choice for me will be Gen.G. Both teams have made roster changes, including changing the IGL for 100T, and that introduces variability and unknown. I also think the roster change(s if you count Nature, who recently joined the team as well) make Gen.G better. In terms of raw firepower I actually think this series is close. Gen.G are my favorite GPP play of the slate.

I’m going to make sure I get Zekken in all my Xset lineups, but other than that I’m going to spread out my exposure within the team. Dephh will likely have high ownership so playing Xset without him is a very interesting option, at least in a 100T + Xset lineup.

At captain, I’ll be using the studs. Zekken, Shawn, Nature, Asuna. That’s pretty much my captain pool on this slate.

Good luck, let’s get those contests filled!

Leave a Reply