We’re back Saturday with another 2 game slate. Lock is at 3 Est again and the games are:
Luminosity (57% implied win probability) vs Faze
100 Thieves (66%) vs Gen.G
I’m going to list each player, their KDA, and then today I’m adding fantasy points in the form of [Kills per round, Deaths per round, Assists per round, Fantasy points per round]. Fantasy points per round will include bomb plants/defuses as well as kill bonuses. This should give a much clearer picture of who the best plays are than just KDA. Bomb planting in particular has a significant impact on FP/r for a lot of these players.
I’ll also list the agent(s) each member plays most often. Generally speaking, if you see someone plays Jett that usually means they are the OPer (sniper), although because the OP is $5.0k to buy while the rifles are only $2.9k, a lot of the time even the OPers end up playing quite a few rounds on rifles every game, many more than in CS:GO. Typically speaking, players who play duelists (Jett, Reyna, Phoenix, Raze, Yoru) are the players expected to be the top fraggers by their team. I have switched how I’m getting my stats, so they’ll now only be for the past 60 days. A lot of these players have changed teams and roles fairly frequently, so showing only fairly recent stats makes more sense than showing long term stats in my opinion.
aproto – $9.5k – [.78, .71, .21, 1.34] – Cypher, Killjoy, Raze
stellar – $12.3k – [.68, .65, .30, 1.53] – Sage, Omen, Phoenix
thief – $10.1k – [.82, .75, .22, 1.43] – Reyna, Raze, Jett, Phoenix
moose – $9.7k – [.68, .63, .31, 1.36] – Sova
YaBoiDre – $11.2k – [.79, .73, .22, 1.32] – Omen, Raze
Pricing again isn’t too bad for LG. Stellar is a bit overpriced, especially given that he gets so many of his points from bomb plants which limits his upside to an extent, and thief is a tad underpriced. Moose and aproto are both decent values. LG are small favorites here so I do expect them to be popular.
babybay – $10.9k – [.86, .70, .23, 1.51] – Jett
Corey – $9.8k – [.86, .68, .25, 1.55] – Raze, Reyna, Phoenix
Marved – $9.0k – [.74, .72, .24, 1.30] Omen, Brimstone, Sage
Rawkus – $11.5k – [.61, .61, .36, 1.33] Sova, Skye
ZachaREEE – $9.6k – [.63, .62, .29, 1.29] Breach, Killjoy, Omen
For some reason Rawkus remains drastically overpriced. Corey and babybay are the players to target here. It’s also worth noting that ZachaREEE has be moving to some better agents for DFS scoring. He’s moved from Cypher to a lot of Breach. On Breach in particular he is an assist machine because of the utility (flashes and concusses counting for assists). I like him a lot as the 3rd member of Faze stacks.
Asuna – $12.0k – [.85, .76, .32, 1.62] – Raze
Ethan – $8.9k – [.64, .74, .23, 1.04] – Omen
nitr0 – $10.6k – [.76, .66, .34, 1.65] – Sage, Breach
Hiko – $9.9k – [.68, .58, .39, 1.48] – Sova
steel – $9.2k – [.70, .70, .26, 1.26] – Killjoy, Cypher
As it turns out, nitr0 did not switch to playing Jett and OPing. Instead he’s been playing Sage and Breach, and only OPing occasionally. Most of the time 100T is running 5 rifles. Ethan has also struggled a bit in his transition so far. This is not surprising, as he just started playing this game professionally and was immediately thrown into the highest levels of competition in North America. I do expect him to rapidly improve, but not quick enough for it to matter for Saturday’s slate. Hiko and nitr0 are my favorite targets here, as both are a bit underpriced. Asuna has massive upside, but aside from a few insane moments hasn’t been performing all that great this tournament.
gMd – $8.3k – [.71, .66, .28, 1.27] – Omen
huynh – $9.6k – [.75, .66, .17, 1.27 ] – Jett
MkaeL – $10.4k – [.61, ..59, .41, 1.66] – Sova, Skye
Shawn – $11.7k – [.96, .69, .27, 1.78] – Reyna, Raze, Phoenix
koosta – $8.4k – [.68, .67, .27, 1.21] – Cypher, Killjoy
Gen.G are the most accurately priced team on this slate. Their best DFS players are priced up but they are overall a bit cheaper since they are the largest underdog on the slate. I think they are very much live and a Shawn + Mkael and/or gMd stack is a great GPP play, as I do think 100T are a tad overrated by Vegas and the masses right now with Ethan still learning the game.
Much like on Friday I’m going to devote 1 lineup to each game for a gamestack. Even though a gamestack didn’t win on Friday there was definitely potential for it to have, but with only 200ish entries no one had the right combination of players (it wasn’t even that bottom fraggers did better it was that the underdog side of the stack won so that was what you needed 3 from and no one had that).
My other 4 lineups I’m going to focus a little bit more on underdogs today. I think Gen.G in particular should be basically a coinflip so I’m planning on pairing them with both sides of the LG/Faze game, and then devoting 1 lineup to a 100T + Faze stack. I’m not going to run any LG + 1ooT stacks because I think that’s what most people are going to run because it’s not hard to fit. So with that in mind, my favorite plays are:
Good luck on Saturday!