Valorant is back in the FanDuel lobby with a 4 game slate on Thursday. Lock is at 3 pm EST and the games are:
TSM (59% implied win probability) vs Gen.G
Luminosity (81%) vs DHKB
100 Thieves (71%) vs NRG
T1 (51%) vs Faze
As always, take these numbers with a grain of salt. Vegas is guessing far more than they are in traditional sports and even more than they are in other more established esports like LoL or CS:GO.
I’m going to list each player, their KDA, and then today I’m adding fantasy points in the form of [Kills per round, Deaths per round, Assists per round, Fantasy points per round]. Fantasy points per round will include bomb plants/defuses as well as kill bonuses. This should give a much clearer picture of who the best plays are than just KDA. Bomb planting in particular has a significant impact on FP/r for a lot of these players.
I’ll also list the agent(s) each member plays most often. Generally speaking, if you see someone plays Jett that usually means they are the OPer (sniper), although because the OP is $5.0k to buy while the rifles are only $2.9k, a lot of the time even the OPers end up playing quite a few rounds on rifles every game, many more than in CS:GO. Typically speaking, players who play duelists (Jett, Reyna, Phoenix, Raze, Yoru) are the players expected to be the top fraggers by their team. I have switched how I’m getting my stats, so they’ll now only be for the past 60 days. A lot of these players have changed teams and roles fairly frequently, so showing only fairly recent stats makes more sense than showing long term stats in my opinion.
We have a few new teams on this slate, and one team that has made a major change. We’ll cover all of that below.
Subroza – $11.8k – [.80, .70, .27, 1.52] – Omen
drone – $10.4k – [.85, .62, .22, 1.78] – Phoenix, Raze
Wardell – $9.4k – [.95, .60, .20, 1.87] – Jett
hazed – $9.1k – [.77, .58, .22, 1.59] – Killjoy
reltuC – $8.6k – [.67, .53, .34, 1.60] – Sova, Skye
This is somehow the first time we’re seeing TSM on a Fanduel slate, as they were upset in qualifiers in each of the first two versions of the tournament. Make no mistake, this is a top tier team. You can see it just from their fantasy points, as all 5 players score very well. Pricing here is pretty off. Wardell and drone are the studs for this team, DFS-wise at least. Both of them are too cheap. Additional, haze and Cutler (reltuC) are also too cheap. Cutler gets a ton of his fantasy points from bomb plants, .28 fp/round (which includes rounds where he is on defense and obviously can’t plant the bomb). TSM are really underpriced as a whole which likely make them extremely popular as they are favorites in this matchup.
gMd – $9.7k – [.72, .67, .28, 1.20] – Omen
huynh – $10.9k – [.75, .66, .18, 1.28 ] – Jett
MkaeL – $11.7k – [.61, ..59, .41, 1.66] – Sova
Shawn – $12.0k – [.97, .68, .27, 1.83] – Raze, Reyna, Phoenix
koosta – $10.6k – [.69, .68, .28, 1.22] – Cypher, Killjoy
While TSM are underpriced on the other side of the matchup Gen.G are really priced up. Shawn and Mkael are the players you want to target here, despite MkaeL’s low kill numbers. He gets a TON of points assists and bomb plants, which more than makes up for his low kill counts. Bomb planting in general is much more consistent than I originally anticipated. Utility is super effective in Valorant, so most rounds play out something like: Attackers use more of their utility, take bomb site > Bomb plant > Defenders use their utility to try and retake. Bomb planters typically play it safe at the beginning of the round, so it fairly likely the intended planter actually gets the plant off. Anyways back to Gen.G. If the GPP’s had more than 200 entries I’d like them a lot for tournaments, as their ownership will likely be low opposite a mispriced TSM. However, there’s so few entries in these tournaments that I’m going to focus on building optimal lineups which means I’ll land mostly on the TSM side.
aproto – $9.9k – [.78, .72, .21, 1.31] – Cypher, Raze
stellar – $11.2k – [.68, .65, .30, 1.52] – Sage, Omen, Killjoy
thief – $10.7k – [.81, .76, .22, 1.41] – Reyna, Raze, Jett
moose – $9.5k – [.67, .64, .30, 1.28] – Sova
YaBoiDre – $12.1k – [.79, .74, .22, 1.29] – Omen, Raze
There isn’t really one standout for LG, so I typically try to look for who is underpriced. On Thursday that’s thief, aproto, and moose. Stellar is also likely in play, he’s another guy who gets a lot of planting points. LG are the biggest favorites on the slate so I don’t exactly expect them to be sneaky.
ScrewFace – $11.6k – [.86, .72, .17, 1.64] – Jett
Ange – $10.3k – [.74, .66, .30, 1.39] – Reyna, Raze
Andersin – $9.3k – [.85, .69, .27, 1.69] – Omen, Brimstone
Harmon – $9.0k – [.63, .60, .41, 1.65] – Sova, Omen
Dimsumboi – $8.5k – [.62, .64, .29, 1.25] – Killjoy, Cypher
DHKB came out of absolutely nowhere to qualify for this tournament. I had never heard of them prior to their upset run in the qualifiers. They did have relatively easy path, as Built by Gamers and Beastcoast were the best teams they had to beat, but they did beat them nonetheless. Andersin looks to be their best fantasy player. He leads the team in fp/r just from KDA and is 2nd in both kill bonus points per round and plant/defuse points per round. Harmon and ScrewFace are right behind him. ScrewFace is an explosive fragger on his Jett. He leads the entire slate in FP/R from kill bonuses, although keep in mind that this is mostly against lesser competition than he’ll be facing now. Harmon on the other hand is a spike planting machine, getting .43 fp/r from plants and defuses. All of this said, I won’t be playing DHKB in more than probably 1 of my lineups (since we only get to make a handful).
Asuna – $11.7k – [.88, .74, .34, 1.73] – Reyna, Phoenix, Raze, Sage
Ethan – $8.3k – [N/A] – Omen*
nitr0 – $10.2k – [.83, .64, .33, 1.78] – Jett*
Hiko – $8.8k – [.69, .54, .42, 1.53] – Sova
steel – $8.5k – [.68, .66, .27, 1.32] – Killjoy, Cypher
*Ethan has been playing a lot of Omen in pubs and it makes sense that nitr0 would go back to sniping since he was an AWP (at times) in CSGO. To be clear this is an assumption on my part but I’m fairly confident in it. It likely ups nitr0’s kill potential but probably decreases his plant potential, I’ll call it a wash overall for now.
With the roster change of benching Dicey and bringing in Ethan, 100T cement themselves as the favorites in NA. I do expect Ethan to be one of the top players in North America, look at what Nitr0, the only other pro to come directly from a T1 CS team, has been able to do in terms of his KDA. That said, it’s hard to say if that dominance will be instantaneous or if it’ll take a little while. For $8.3k, he doesn’t need to be that dominant to pay off his salary. nitr0 himself is an interesting play. Likely to be OP’ing, this could increase his kill potential. I do worry a bit about his bomb plant/defuse numbers taking a hit (he was previously getting .24 fp/r from planting + defusing), so overall I’m keeping him about the same in terms of my expectations. This of course means he’s underpriced. Hiko is also underpriced at only $8.8k. Between 100T and TSM, there’s a lot of underpriced players on this slate. This could actually help keep each individual’s ownership down as bit, as you only need 1 or 2 cheap plays in your lineup.
Daps – $9.6k – [.65, .60, .32, 1.30] – Killjoy, Cypher, Omen, Brimstone
s0m – $11.1k – [.82, .69, .23, 1.66] – Omen, Phoenix, Raze
eeiu – $11.5k – [.82, .63, .37, 1.68] – Sova, Breach, Skye
Shanks – $10.5k – [.80, .70, .21, 1.59] – Jett, Reyna, Yoru, Raze
ANDRIOD – $11.9k – [.91, .69, .22, 1.76] – Raze, Phoenix, Reyna
ANDROID has been a great acquisition for NRG, as they’ve unlocked his fragging capabilities by playing him on duelists. He, s0m, and eeiu are all priced up, but they all have really strong upside. s0m’s may be a bit lower than the numbers indicate as the addition of ANDROID relegated s0m mostly to Omen instead of duelists. Omen players in general have surprised me a bit with their kill upside though.
Spyder – $11.8k – [1.02, .57, .15, 1.99] – Jett, Omen
curry – $11.3k – [.82, .62, .25, 1.62] – Cypher, Viper
Skadoodle – $10.5k – [.73, .55, .48, 1.93] – Breach, Raze
DaZed – $9.6k – [.71, .53, .38, 1.61] – Sova, Sage
autimatic – $9.2k – [.71, .58, .28, 1.42] – Omen, Sage, Raze
Speaking of fragging capabilities, Spyder is the first player I’ve seen with a kills per round of >1. His fantasy points per round are just shy of 2.0, as he’s too busy killing everyone and only average .04 fp/r from plants and defuses. Given that his points mostly come from kills, he’s the type of play I like to use in stacks (particularly with the team position) as him doing well likely indicates the team is doing well. While Spyder is busy killing everyone, Skadoodle is busy planting the bomb all the time. He averages the 2nd most fp/r from plants + defuses on the entire slate at .48 fp/r. He’s no slouch in the killing department either, averaging a respectable .73. Plus his assists are almost as high as his deaths. Combine all this and you have a fantasy stud, one who might fly a bit under the radar since he doesn’t have the same flashy kill numbers that Spyder has. I like him a lot at only $10.5k. Curry is the same player from CS:GO, and has made the transition very well. From being a sentinel main, he gets a lot of frags. That said, he is expensive and barely outscores DaZed, who costs $1.7k less. I like both of them as 3rd members of a T1 stack.
babybay – $11.6k – [.86, .70, .25, 1.44] – Jett, Reyna
Corey – $10.1k – [.87, .67, .27, 1.58] – Reyna, Raze, Cypher
Marved – $8.4k – [.74, .72, .24, 1.33] Omen, Brimstone
Rawkus – $8.7k – [.62, .61, .36, 1.36] Sova, Skye
ZachaREEE – $8.2k – [.63, .62, .25, 1.25] Cypher, Killjoy
Faze are kind of like Gen.G in that they have a very even fantasy point spread. So I’ll again be looking for who is mispriced. Everyone except babybay kind of falls into that category. I like Corey a lot at $10.1k, as he’s the top fragger (just barely). On another slate, Marved, Rawkus, and ZachaREEE would be great value plays, but on this slate you don’t really need them with all the other value. I’ll likely have a little exposure to them in stacks, but not a ton. This game is a complete coinflip though, and with T1’s numbers overall looking superior (this could be due to competition levels) they’ll likely garner more ownership, so I really like Faze as a GPP play, if only the GPP’s were bigger.
I’ve already mentioned this a couple times, but with such small tournaments I’m going to be focused on building optimally and not worrying about the ownership too much. My favorite plays are, in order of when their game is not how much I like them:
These players will make up my core on Thursday. Good luck everyone!