Welcome back to what is now the 3rd ever slate of Valorant DFS. While I didn’t manage a repeat victory (or come anywhere close to it), we did have a bunch of TESD community members with solid days. Saturday we’ve got another 2 game slate that starts at 3:00 pm EST. The games are:
***Note*** I’ve checked all my usual sites and can’t find any odds as I’m writing this (2 am EST Friday night/Saturday morning, thanks Top Shots). I’ll add them if I can find them Saturday morning but as I’ve mentioned before these games are complete toss-ups, so I really wouldn’t read too much into the odds for building lineups. Anyways the games are:
Immortals vs Luminosity
Xset vs Sentinels
Again this is the same paragraph as the first two slates. I like having the K/D data and most common agents played in front of me while I’m making lineups. I’m going to list each player, and then their KD in the form of [Kills per round, Deaths per round]. This should at least give everyone a baseline for who the top players are on each team, as we work towards comprehensive projections like we have for CS:GO. I’ll also list the agent(s) each member plays most often. Generally speaking, if you see someone plays Jett that usually means they are the OPer (sniper), although because the OP is $5.0k to buy while the rifles are only $2.9k, a lot of the time even the OPers end up playing quite a few rounds on rifles every game, many more than in CS:GO. I’ll do my best to make a note of primary bomb carriers, and like I mentioned above, Sova players (and to a lesser extent Sage players) are likely to end up with a substantial amount of assists, so give them a slight boost when you’re making lineups.
One more note on the stats, I’m personally mostly using them to compare within a team. Some of these top tier teams have mostly played other top tier teams while the lesser known teams have beat up on worse competition. This might cause stats to be inflated or deflated a bit when comparing across teams.
If you played much CS:GO, particularly early on back in April and May of 2020 you’ll likely recognize a lot of these names. Many of the Valorant pros were at one time CS:GO pros, with a few coming from other games and of course some who are completely new to the pro scene. Anyways on to the teams:
jcStani – $9.8k – [.72, .71] – Omen
Genghsta – $8.4k – [.69, .61] – Sova (increased assists)
ShoT UP – $12.2k – [.93, .69] – Reyna, Phoenix
NaturE – $11.1k – [.78, .68] – Killjoy, Cypher
Kehmicals – $10.6k – [.81, .67] – Jett, Raze
Nature’s price continues to rise, as he’s had an excellent first two slates. On Friday he had a ton of clutches (no bonus points for them on Fanduel) and was overall playing really well. His Killjoy play defending the A site on Ascent was outstanding. All that praise aside, the fact that he’s now more expensive than Kehmicals means I’ll probably look to Kehmicals for my #2 play behind of course Shot Up. Genghsta remains underpriced at only $8.4k, especially with the increased assists he gets as Sova.
aproto – $8.9k – [.82, .71] – Cypher, Raze
stellar – $9.9k – [.66, .65] – Sage, Omen
thief – $11.6k – [.83, .74] – Reyna, Phoenix, Jett
moose – $8.3k – [.64, .62] – Sova, Omen
YaBoiDre – $9.6k – [.77, .72] – Raze, Omen
Thief and aproto have basically swapped prices. Now Thief is priced about right and aproto is way underpriced. The may react a bit to the solid games from Stellar and moose, but I won’t be going overboard. Stellar did have 7 bomb plants on Friday, which is something to keep an eye on, but his fragging potential isn’t great and he’s priced up fairly high. moose makes for an interesting salary saver. I prefer Genghsta for $100 more, but if I’m trying to just stack LG from this game you could certainly do worse than moose as a salary saver.
PureR – $11.7k – [.85, .73] – Jett
thwifo – $9.2k – [.70, .65] – Cypher, Breach, Sage
AYRIN – $8.6k – [.76, .72] – Raze, Killjoy
BcJ – $10.1k – [.78, .67] – Sova (increased assists)
Wedid – $9.7k – [.72, .69] – Omen, Viper
Pricing looks to be about right here. PureR has as high of upside as anyone on the slate, and BcJ is a strong stacking partner. Ayrin is definitely underpriced, as even though his KD may not be all that great, remember that Fanduel heavily rewards kills and multi (3+) kill rounds.
ShahZaM – $10.9k – [.81, .66] – Jett
SicK – $10.4k – [.81, .63] – Phoenix, Breach, Sova
sinatraa – $9.5k – [.79, .72] – Sova, Raze (increased assists)
zombs – $9.0k – [.63, .66] – Omen, Brimstone
dapr – $11.9k – [.73, .66] – Cypher, Killjoy
dapr is priced up like he’s the top fragger when in reality it’s ShaZaM and SicK who lead the team, and even sinatraa is ahead of dapr. Stacking those 3 (not dapr) is relatively cheap and an attractive play if you go the stacking route.
For as much as I do think different lineup constructions in terms of game stacking are viable, the lineup that won the $5.55 on Friday was a good old fashioned 3/2/1. In fact 9 of the top 10 finishers ran a 3/2/1 (the 10th lineup ran a 4/1/1). I’ll be focusing more on getting to 3/2/1, the team slot seemed to be most often part of the 3 stack, something to keep in mind while building. I will still run at least a couple game stacks though.
There’s Shot Up and then there’s everyone else on Saturday. He has been outstanding so far in this tournament, and will likely have the ownership to show it on Saturday. With how small all the fields are, I don’t think we need to fade him, I’ll be eating the chalk like everyone else. To pair with him I’ll Kehmicals when I can and Genghsta if I need cost savings. I’d love to be able to use Kehmicals and NaturE, but I don’t think the money will be there to do so.
On the other side of that matchup PureR has a ton of raw upside. I’ll use him both with and without Shot Up. BcJ is my 2nd favorite play from Xset and Ayrin is a nice salary saver.
Speaking of salary savers, Aproto is my favorite one on the slate. He is just far too cheap. I won’t go so far as to say I’ll definitely have him in every lineup, but I wouldn’t be shocked to end up with 80+% of him. Thief has been turning heads so far this tournament as well, I’ll definitely be pairing him with Aproto in a few lineups.
ShahZaM and Sick are both a bit too cheap compared to other top fraggers on Saturday. I likely have a good amount of both of them as one offs plus a few stacks.
That’s it for me, good luck on Saturday!