We have another 2 game Valorant slate on Monday, as the tournament was pushed back because of the weather across the south. Lock is at 3pm EST again, and the games are:
Envy (51% implied win probability) vs Immortals
Sentinels (81%) vs Xset
As I always caution, take these odds with a grain of salt. Granted, Envy/Immortals is already a coin flip, but I think there’s value on Xset. Sentinels are very good, but Xset are no slouches themselves, and this should be a closely contested series.
I’m going to list each player, their KDA, and then today I’m adding fantasy points in the form of [Kills per round, Deaths per round, Assists per round, Fantasy points per round]. Note that points from bomb plants/defuses per round, as well as the kill bonuses are only from the slates that have been on Fanduel, so there’s a small sample size. That said, this should give a much clearer picture of who the best plays are than just KDA. Bomb planting in particular has a significant impact on FP/r for a lot of these players.
I’ll also list the agent(s) each member plays most often. Generally speaking, if you see someone plays Jett that usually means they are the OPer (sniper), although because the OP is $5.0k to buy while the rifles are only $2.9k, a lot of the time even the OPers end up playing quite a few rounds on rifles every game, many more than in CS:GO. Typically speaking, players who play duelists (Jett, Reyna, Phoenix, Raze, Yoru) are the players expected to be the top fraggers by their team. I have switched how I’m getting my stats, so they’ll now only be for the past 60 days. A lot of these players have changed teams and roles fairly frequently, so showing only fairly recent stats makes more sense than showing long term stats in my opinion.
If you played much CS:GO, particularly early on back in April and May of 2020 you’ll likely recognize a lot of these names. Many of the Valorant pros were at one time CS:GO pros, with a few coming from other games and of course some who are completely new to the pro scene. Anyways on to the teams:
mummAy – $9.8k – [.77, .62, .19, 1.53] – Omen, Jett
FNS – $9.2k – [.64, .65, .26, 1.09] – Cypher, Killjoy
kaboose – $9.5k – [.75, .70, .24, 1.28] – Raze, Omen, Reyna
crashies – $11.2k – [.86, .63, .30, 1.72] – Sova, Skye
food – $11.7k – [.82, .65, .35, 1.88] – Phoenix, Raze
Adding in the fp/r definitely paints a clearer picture of who the best plays are. Food really separates himself from the pack, as does crashies to an extent. Beyond that, mummAy clearly solidifies himself above Kaboose even though their kill stats look similar.
jcStani – $9.7k – [.72, .72, .26, 1.46] – Omen, Sage
Genghsta – $9.0k – [.68, .59, .34, 1.46] – Sova
ShoT UP – $12.3k – [.93, .69, .28, 1.84] – Reyna, Breach, Phoenix
NaturE – $10.6k – [.67, .63, .22, 1.34] – Killjoy, Cypher, Viper
Kehmicals – $10.9k – [.83, .68, .20, 1.45] – Jett, Raze
Again, the fp/r addition has painted a pretty different picture of this team from the kill stats. Sure, Kehmicals gets quite a few kills, but his other stats are lacking, allowing both jcStani and Genghsta to actually average every so slightly more fp/r even though their kill stats are much lower. They are definitely my favorite stacking partners to go with ShoT UP. It is worth noting that ShoT UP is playing Breach more and more, which does slightly limit his kill potential. He only averages .08 fp/r from planting or defusing the bomb (compared to .37 for jcStani and .21 for Genghsta), so kills are of the utmost importance for him.
ShahZaM – $9.9k – [.81, .68, .16, 1.38] – Jett
SicK – $8.6k – [.83, .67, .30, 1.64] – Phoenix, Sova, Sage
sinatraa – $12.0k – [.77, .73, .38, 1.49] – Sova, Raze, Reyna
zombs – $8.3k – [.58, .67, .28, 1.01] – Omen
dapr – $10.1k – [.71, .66, .26, 1.25] – Cypher, Sage
SicK continues to look great in all of the stats, it just hasn’t translates to fantasy performance yet. I’m going to keep slamming him into my lineups, as sooner or later he’s bound to have a huge game. ShahZam also looks underpriced. Sentinels are the one team where not much really changed from the addition of fantasy points per round.
PureR – $10.4k – [.79, .72, .20, 1.36] – Jett
thwifo – $8.9k – [.68, .67, .30, 1.17] – Cypher
AYRIN – $8.4k – [.74, .71, .24, 1.15] – Raze, Killjoy
BcJ – $11.6k – [.80, .63, .37, 1.60] – Sova, Omen
Wedid – $9.6k – [.69, .71, .28, 1.29] – Omen, Viper
BcJ really pulls ahead of Purer when you add in the fp/r. I do want to note that Xset has the least rounds played as part of Fanduel slates, so there may be a bit more noise in their Plant/Defuse and kill bonus stats. That said, those stats show that Wedid actually gets the most fp/r from bomb plants/defuses and kill bonuses on the team. He leads the team in plant/defuse points and is right behind Purer in kill bonus points. He makes for a much better play than just his KDA stats indicate. AYRIN on the other hand makes for a significantly worse play than his KDA stats indicate. On first glance he appears underpriced, but when you see his FP/R that doesn’t seem to be the case.
I didn’t do a lineup review, but if you take a look at the $5.55 from Sunday, the winning lineup was a game stack. That was with both games going to 3 maps. Granted the IMT/LG game featured a triple OT map. If one series goes 3 maps and the other is a sweep I would honestly be surprised at this point if the winning lineup isn’t a gamestack. It’s easy to see why, as even the worst players average over 1.00 fp/r. The 20 point “bonus” for a sweep pales in comparison to what the top players average on a map. I’ll again be using around half of my 12 lineups for gamestacks.
On my non-gamestack lineups, I’ll be running some variation of a 3/2/1 (remember, Fanduel doesn’t allow 3/3). SicK is again basically a free square, he’ll be in all of my non-IMT/Envy gamestack lineups. Other underpriced players I like are mummAy, jcStani, Genghsta, ShahZam, Wedid, and Purer.
For the high end guys, you can pretty much just look at the fp/r above. Food, Crashies, Shot Up, Sick, and BcJ are my favorite targets. It’s worth noting that Food actually averages the most FP/R on the slate but I don’t expect him to have the same ownership as a Shot UP who is a more flashy player.
That’s it for me, good luck on Monday!