Review 2/20

Before we jump into Sunday’s slate, I wanted spend a minute looking at the slate Saturday. Specifically, I wanted to show how Envy was a case study in “winning to fast”.

Envy won their maps 13-1, and 13-7. The total was 26-8, a truly dominant performance. Their 5 players combined to score 369 fantasy points, which includes the 100 total points from the sweep bonuses.

Now let’s look at LG. They beat 100 Thieves in a thrilling 3 game series, with map scores of 6-13, 13-10, 13-7. The overall round score was only 32-30 in their favor. Their 5 players combined for 426 fantasy points. That’s a full 57 points more than Envy, who truly dominated their series.

Even crazier, 100T, the team that lost in 3 maps, with a round score of 30-32, combined for 399 fantasy points. That’s right, the losing team in a 3 game series outscored a team that was almost perfect in terms of how they actually played the game.

The players who scored the best for both LG and 100T were a bit unexpected so a game stack didn’t win everything, but one definitely could have. They were the only series that went 3 games out of the 4. Keep this in mind for Sunday’s 2 game slate. If one series goes 3 maps while the other is a sweep, there’s strong potential for a game stack to be the best play.

The Slate

Like I just mentioned, we have a 2 game slate on Sunday. Lock is again at 3:00 pm EST. The games are:

Immortals (63% implied win probability) vs Luminosity Gaming

Sentinels (63%) vs Envy

As I always say, take these numbers with a grain of salt, Vegas is guessing like the rest of us. I’m treating both of these matchups like a coin flip.

The Teams

I like having the K/D data and most common agents played in front of me while I’m making lineups. I’m going to list each player, and then their KDA in the form of [Kills per round, Deaths per round, Assists per round]. This should at least give everyone a baseline for who the top players are on each team. I’ll also list the agent(s) each member plays most often. Generally speaking, if you see someone plays Jett that usually means they are the OPer (sniper), although because the OP is $5.0k to buy while the rifles are only $2.9k, a lot of the time even the OPers end up playing quite a few rounds on rifles every game, many more than in CS:GO. Typically speaking, players who play duelists (Jett, Reyna, Phoenix, Raze, Yoru) are the players expected to be the top fraggers by their team. I’ll do my best to make a note of primary bomb carriers, and Sova players (and to a lesser extent Sage players) are likely to end up with a substantial amount of assists, so give them a slight boost when you’re making lineups. I have switched how I’m getting my stats, so they’ll now only be for the past 90 days. A lot of these players have changed teams and roles fairly frequently, so showing only fairly recent stats makes more sense than showing long term stats in my opinion.

If you played much CS:GO, particularly early on back in April and May of 2020 you’ll likely recognize a lot of these names. Many of the Valorant pros were at one time CS:GO pros, with a few coming from other games and of course some who are completely new to the pro scene. Anyways on to the teams:

Immortals

jcStani – $9.9k – [.73, .72, .26] – Omen, Sage

Genghsta – $8.4k – [.65, .59, .34] – Sova, Sage

ShoT UP – $12.2k – [.94, .69, .27] – Reyna, Phoenix, Breach

NaturE – $10.6k – [.70, .65, .22] – Killjoy, Cypher, Viper

Kehmicals – $10.9k – [.83, .68, .18] – Jett, Raze

Immortals showed a new look on Icebox Saturday, playing NaturE on Viper and jcStani on Sage. This opened the door for jcStani to frag a bit more while Nature was in a more supportive role. We also saw ShoT UP play Breach on Ascent, which may have capped his fragging potential a bit. One quick note, yesterday I mentioned the Reyna nerfs, as it turns out they’re playing on the previous patch so Reyna has not actually been nerfed yet. Maybe the switch to Breach is a preemptive one for when the nerfs go live in pro matches, or maybe Immortals just wanted to switch things up. Either way, it’s something to keep an eye on here with Shot Up specifically. Pricing here looks about right. Kehmicals and jcStani may be a bit too cheap. jcStani also plants the bomb very frequently (he had 14 plants in 22 rounds on Saturday), which is definitely significant given that plants are equal to kills.

Luminosity Gaming

aproto – $9.8k – [.80, .71, .22] – Cypher, Raze

stellar – $11.7k – [.69, .64, .30] – Sage, Omen, Killjoy

thief – $10.4k – [.83, .76, .22] –  Raze, Reyna, Jett, Phoenix

moose – $8.6k – [.68, .63, .30] – Sova

YaBoiDre – $9.5k – [.78, .73, .22] – Omen, Raze

Moose stole the show on Saturday for LG, putting up a huge performance. He was a decent CS pro, so it would make sense for him to continuously be improving at Valorant. I expect that game Saturday to boost his ownership quite a bit, especially given that as far as I know there are no optimizers for Valorant, so everyone is hand building. He’s definitely a bit cheap. That said, I do still like aproto and thief as my top plays here, as they’re also both underpriced. Stellar continues to be wildly overpriced, although I suppose it worked out on Saturday. He and Moose both get a decent amount of plants, but neither are anywhere close to the rate that jcStani gets for Immortals.

Sentinels

ShahZaM – $9.7k – [.81, .68, .16] – Jett, Sova

SicK – $8.9k – [.81, .67, .30] – Phoenix, Sova, Sage

sinatraa – $11.6k – [.78, .72, .37] – Raze, Sova, Reyna

zombs – $8.3k – [.59, .68, .28] – Omen

dapr – $10.1k – [.72, .66, .27] – Cypher, Sage

Sentinels are a strange team in that they rotate their top 3 fraggers between duelists and Sova…and then SicK also plays Sage sometimes. SicK has yet to have what I would even consider a good game on a Fanduel slate, but he’s still wildly underpriced here. He’s as close to a free square as you can get. ShaZaM is too, although he doesn’t get many of the peripheral stats (assists, bomb plants, etc). Sinatraa is accurately priced, but is still a strong play as all 3 of the players I just mentioned have similar fragging potential.

Envy

mummAy – $9.6k – [.76, .63, .17] – Omen, Jett

FNS – $9.0k – [.67, .64, .26] – Cypher, Killjoy

kaboose – $9.2k – [.75, .70, .23] – Raze, Omen, Reyna

crashies – $11.1k – [.81, .63, .30] – Sova, Skye

food – $11.9k – [.79, .66, .35] – Phoenix, Raze

Envy are a pretty balanced team. I mentioned yesterday how kaboose had been moved to duelist and mummAy to smokes and they of course proceeded to play mummAy on Jett and kaboose Omen for one of the two maps. I think both of those players are actually underpriced Sunday, with crashies and food being priced about right.

Strategy/Top Plays

Like I mentioned way back in the 2/20 review, I am a fan of game stacking on these 2 game slates. I’ll probably run half of my 12 lineups as gamestacks. In the rest of my lineups, I’m going to run more traditional stacks, probably 3/2/1’s. Don’t forget on Fanduel you’re required to use players from 3 teams, so a 3/3 is off the table.

I expect SicK’s ownership to be thru the roof, but unless I’m gamestacking the other game, it’s hard not to play him in this spot. I do think that his low price my keep people from playing him at MVP, as there definitely seems to be some bias towards playing the higher priced guys in the MVP spot since there is no salary multiplier. SicK definitely has the potential to put up the top score on the slate so don’t be scared off of playing him at MVP because of his too cheap price.

For what should hopefully be a slightly lower owned play I like jcStani a lot on this slate. He gets so many bomb plants, which is something not a ton of people (myself often included) are accounting for totally. His bomb plants on Saturday added an effective .34 kills per round to his fantasy output, allowing him to have a decent fantasy day on a day that his actual fragging was pretty bad. If he can have a decent fragging day with the bomb plants on top, he’s primed for a big performance.

Other than that, I’ll pretty be targeting the players with the highest kill rates that I can fit in my lineup. For my 3/2/1 stacks, I’ll be using the Team slot in either the 3 or the 2 stack, it’s unlikely I ever use it as the 1.

That’s it for me, good luck on Sunday!

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