Saturday marks the penultimate day of Master Reykjavik. We have two games, but the winner of the first plays in the second, so we obviously won’t have any lines for it ahead of time. Keep an eye on discord and twitter (@Tophdfs) for my picks in the second game. Before we jump into the first game, let’s recap Friday.
Record 5/28: 2-0 (+2.32 units)
Overall Record: 10-3 (+13.32 units)
Another day that went according to plan in the books. It’s pretty clear the NA and EU are a cut above everyone else at this point. The Vikings again just didn’t look like a team that belonged in the same server as Liquid, who rolled to an easy 2-0 victory. Not to be outdone, Sentinels made short work of NUTURN. NUTURN’s struggles on Haven are really coming back to bite them.
Let’s take a look at the EU showdown that will lead us off on Saturday.
Liquid (-126, -1.5 maps @ +231) vs
Fnatic (-105, +1.5 maps @ +330) 1:00 pm EST
O 2.5 maps (-109) / U 2.5 maps (-121)
A rarity for this event, we get teams that have actually played each other before. Since each team’s respective roster moves, Liquid and Fnatic have faced off twice, both times in Bo5 grand finals. They’ve split the series 1-1, with Liquid’s win coming most recently. Fnatic lead in total maps, 5-4.
Fnatic really struggle on a couple of maps, Ascent and Split, which hurts them in Bo5 scenarios. With this being Bo3, they’ll only have to play at most one of those maps. I also think they’re in slightly better form than Liquid is. Fnatic actually gave Sentinels a challenge, something no one else has done, while Liquid lost to a V1 team that Fnatic easily handled. The -105 implies a 51% chance Fnatic wins here, I think it’s roughly 55/45 in Fnatic’s favor, which means we have a little bit of value.
Fnatic ML @ -105 (1 unit)
Again, keep an eye on the discord and twitter for my pick in the 2nd game. I’ll tell you right now though, whichever EU teams wins, if the odds are -150 or better (higher?) to beat NUTURN 2-0 I’ll be on that bet.