VCT Reykjavik continues on Friday, with our day of 3 games. It’s been an awesome tournament so far, both in terms of how the bets have gone and the actual games, let’s hope it stays that way. Let’s take a look at Thursday’s results:
Record 5/27: 2-0 (+2.56 units)
Overall Record: 8-3 (+11.00 units)
I’m glad I actually took the lesson from Wednesday and stayed away from betting V1, as NUTURN continued to impress and actually pulled off the upset.
The EU teams, however, both took care of business. As expected, Fnatic looked fairly dominant against X10, controlling both maps. Liquid really struggled on Ascent against Kru, but ultimately got the sweep. I really do feel for Kru, as they got to play 3 games this tournament, and 2 of them were against Top 3 teams. They absolutely got a raw deal here, and will be a team to keep an eye on assuming they make it to the next international tournament.
On to Friday.
Fnatic (-217, -1.5 maps @ +133) vs
Version1 (+160, +1.5 maps @ -179) 11 am EST
O 2.5 maps (+112) / U 2.5 maps (-149)
This line has been moving rapidly in Fnatic’s favor. In the 2 hours or so since I wrote my DFS article, Fnatic has gone from 57% implied win probability to 65%. Granted, I’m getting this line from GG.bet and not Bovada or Pinnacle, which don’t have it up as of 10:30 pm EST. V1 already upset Liquid earlier in the tournament, proving that they can compete with the top European teams. The question is, can they do it again and beat Fnatic?
I’d put the answer at a solid, maybe. It seems that’s right about where Vegas is putting the answer too, as +160 implies a 38.5% chance to win. I have that as about right (as are the maps spread lines), so I’m going to stay away here. There’s just something about the opening game of the day this tournament. This is the 3rd straight time I’m least confident about the day’s opening match.
Liquid (-286, -1.5 maps @ +109) vs
Vikings (+204, +1.5 maps @ -145) 1:30 pm EST
O 2.5 maps (+123) / U 2.5 maps (-164)
I’ve been pretty vocal about how disappointed I’ve been in Brazil this tournament. That very much includes Vikings. They run outdated compositions, and aren’t good enough to overcome that through raw firepower. They struggled against an X10 team that just got trounced by Fnatic, and then got crushed by Sentinels. I think there’s about a 55-60% chance Liquid wins this 2-0, and the +109 only implies a ~48% chance. There’s some value here.
Liquid -1.5 maps @ +109 (1 unit)
Sentinels (-417, -1.5 maps @ -122) vs
NUTURN (+279, +1.5 maps @ -109) 4 pm EST
O 2.5 maps (+140) / U 2.5 maps (-189)
Sentinels have looked every bit the favorite that they came into the tournament as so far. They’ve dismantled 2 of the perceived top 3 (outside of themselves) teams coming into the tournament. NUTURN have been a pleasant surprise, but they also dropped a map to Sharks. Sure, they beat V1, but it took them 3 maps and overtimes in both wins to get that done. Sentinels are a whole different ballgame. Haven has also looked like a free win for whoever NUTURN plays, they got crushed on it against both Sharks and V1. If they leave it in the pool, I’d expect Sentinels to take it and also dominate them their. Not that it really matters, I don’t think there’s a single map NUTURN would beat Sen on. I have this at a roughly 65% chance for Sen to win 2-0 and the -122 only implies 55%, so there’s definitely value here.
Sentinels -1.5 maps @ -122 (1.5 units)