Welcome back! We have 3 more series on Thursday after a huge day on Wednesday, thanks in large part to a line that was wayyyy off, as far off as I can ever remember a line being in any sport. Let try to keep that momentum building! But first, to review Wednesday:
Record 5/26: 3-1 (+7.10 units)
Overall Record: 6-3 (+8.44 units)
I’d be remiss to start anywhere else but Kru. I think was the biggest single bet I’ve ever recommended (4 units split between ML and Map Spread), and my only regret is not recommending more. Kru absolutely deserved to be the favorites here, Vikings had come out and said they were better than Sharks, and just watching them play the were clearly the superior team. Feels good that we were able to get them at +265 (or better as somehow the odds went up to as high as +280 overnight). They of course thoroughly dominated, we didn’t even have to sweat.
Going CR over X10 was probably a mistake in hindsight. I should’ve just stayed away. I based a bit too much on how each team did against their 1st opponent, although in my defense there’s not a ton to go on. But given that there’s not much to go on, my play should’ve been to stay away in that spot.
Lastly, Sen absolutely smashed Vikings, our -1.5 maps spread got there easily. Brazil continues to look weak while NA continues to look super strong.
On to Thursday!
Version1 (-181, -1.5 maps @ +165) vs
NUTURN (+135, +1.5 maps @ -226) 11:00 am EST
O 2.5 maps (-101) / U 2.5 maps (-132)
While Version1 struggled a bit out of the gate with Crazy Raccoon, they pulled off what so far is likely the upset of the tournament by beating Liquid. This team is legit, it’s full of young guns who were making for themselves before moving over from CSGO, and have picked up right where they left off. NUTURN are probably the team I’m least sure about in the tournament. Yeah they crushed Sharks on maps 2 and 3, but they also got blown out on map 1. With how bad Sharks have looked in their other 4 maps, losing that hard is very concerning to me. While I do think the Asian teams are a lot better than many, myself included, anticipated, I think V1 just have a bit too much firepower.
I do think this line is just about spot on though, so I’m going to learn my lesson from Wednesday when I forced a Crazy Raccoon play in the first game of the day, and stay away here.
Fnatic (-475, -1.5 maps @ -105) vs
X10 (+315, +1.5 maps @ -125) 1:30 pm EST
O 2.5 maps (+125) / U 2.5 maps (-165)
X10 have definitely surprised people at this event. They played Vikings pretty close and beat Crazy Raccoon handily. However, Fnatic are a new class of opponent for them. Their attack at often times is “Patiphan, go”, but I find it extremely unlikely that that will work against Fnatic with any regularity. They are simply too good strategy wise and too good with their utility. -105 only implies a 51% chance that Fnatic sweep this series, I think it should be more like a 75% chance. I’m on Fnatic here pretty heavily.
Fnatic -1.5 maps @ -105 (2 units)
Liquid (-588, -1.5 maps @ -152) vs
Kru (+364, +1.5 maps @ 114) 4:00 pm EST
While Kru won us a ton of money on Wednesday, I won’t be chasing them Thursday. I really like them as a team, but unfortunately for them, they model their game after EU, and they keep facing EU teams. It’s like the JV team facing the Varsity team when they run the same playbook. The Varsity team is simply better at the plays, so they’re always going to win. -152 implies a 60% chance of a 2-0 win, I think it should be more like 65%. There’s a bit of value here on the Liquid sweep.
Liquid -1.5 maps @ -152 (1 unit)