Hi again, we have 3 more series’ on Wednesday. If you haven’t seen, Draftkings is also now offering Valorant! Check out my post on the slate here. Anyways, let’s take a quick look at how Tuesday went before moving on to Wednesday.
Record 5/25: 2-0 (+1.60 units)
Overall Record: 3-2 (+1.34 units)
I feel like I got a bit lucky with the Vikings -1.5 maps. They easily could’ve dropped either map to X10. My biggest takeaway after Days 1 and 2 is how weak SA as a whole is. All 3 teams have looked pretty bad, and Vikings are still running some pretty outdated team compositions. However, they were able to edge out X10 2-0.
Then came the V1 upset over Liquid. I didn’t bet this game, however, it was my signal for the next game. Given that V1 were able to beat Liquid, it gave me confidence that NA is actually better than EU, and that Sentinels should be able to handle Fnatic. As I mentioned in my post and discord, the V1 win meant I was going to bet Sen -1.5 maps. I did and sure enough, Sentinels got the sweep. The maps honestly weren’t even really as close as the final scores indicated, Sentinels were pretty well in control on both maps. They look to be the team to beat in Iceland. On to Wednesday, where we have 3 more series.
X10 Esports (+105, +1.5 maps @ -260) vs
Crazy Raccoon (-135, -1.5 maps @ +190) 11 am EST
O 2.5 maps (+105) / U 2.5 maps (-135)
Both of these teams got swept in their opening matches, but both played closer matches than most people expected. I do think V1 played a lot better against Liquid than they did against CR, but nonetheless, keeping that match close now looks a lot better for CR. Meanwhile, with how disappointing SA has been I don’t know how much to read into X10 pushing them to the edge. I liked what I saw out of Crazy Raccoon more, and I do think they’re the better team here. The -135 implies a 57% chance they win, I think it’s more like 60%, so I think there’s a bit of value to be had here.
Crazy Raccoon -135 (1 unit)
Sharks (-385, -1.5 maps @ -105) vs
KRU (+265, +1.5 maps @ -125) 1:30 pm EST
O 2.5 maps (+120) / U 2.5 maps (-155)
Um, what? This line is absolute insanity to me. Sharks took a map off of NUTURN so I guess that’s good? They then got absolutely steamrolled on maps 2 and 3 and Ascent (map 3) was the far and away the worst map I’ve seen a team play in this tournament. They were just running into sites, peeking the OP 1-by-1, and going in with no util. It was frankly pathetic. They had 2 kills after 5 rounds and I believe 5 kills after 9 rounds. That’s not the top fragger’s stats, that’s the entire team COMBINED.
Sure, Kru also got crushed by Fnatic. They definitely played a bit scared in rifle rounds and didn’t switch their strategies enough. It was a hard matchup for them stylistically though, as they seem to model their game after Fnatic. It was like JV Fnatic were facing Varsity Fnatic, that’s always going to be tough. Still, the 8-0 in pistol rounds and conversions is encouraging, and tells me this team has the gun skills to hang. Plus, Kru scrims against Brazilian teams all the time, and the word out of South America was that if Kru played in Brazil they’d have finished 2nd behind Vikings, aka ahead of Sharks. I think Kru should be moderate favorite here, at the very least a coinflip, but instead they’re massive underdogs. This might be the biggest position I’ve ever taken on a game, I think the line is just that far off.
Kru +265 (2 units)
Kru +1.5 maps @ -125 (2 units)
Sentinels (-275, -1.5 maps @ +120) vs
Vikings (+200, +1.5 maps @ -155) 4:00 pm EST
O 2.5 maps (+120) / U 2.5 maps (-155)
Vikings kept with the theme of South America looking weak, barely squeaking out both maps in a 2-0 win over X10. X10 was largely considered to be the worst team in the tournament coming in. Meanwhile, Sentinels swept Fnatic in their debut, and looked great. I think there’s a better than 50% chance Sen sweep here, and they have plus odds. That’s where I’ll land.
Sentinels -1.5 maps @ +120 (1 unit)