Playoffs – Finals

TOP eSports +113 (+1.5 @ +1.5 @ -222, +2.5 @ -588)
vs
JD Gaming -150 (-1.5 @ +144, -2.5 @ +307)

 


Lineups:
TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, QiuQiu
JDG: Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao

 

Trends:
JDG are 10-3 as favorites, 8-5 ATS
JDG are 5-0, 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs (including playoffs)
Zoom has not lost a game since returning. JDG are a perfect 15-0 in games with him in the lineup.

TOP are 4-1 as underdogs, 4-1 ATS
TOP have won 2-0 in three of their past four appearances as underdogs
(vs FPX, eStar, JDG)

TOP won the first meeting between these teams back on March 25th 2-0.

I did a roundtable discussion style post on this final with Josh Roberts and John George over at The Action Network that I’d encourage you to check out.

It’s really strange to me that QiuQiu is getting the start. He’s been a better player than Yuyanjia overall but to potentially disrupt the chemistry that JackeyLove has built with him during this streak is risky. I don’t necessarily think this is automatically a bad thing it’s just odd. My guess is that it has something to do with champion pool going up against Loken/LvMao.

So obviously I have futures on JDG for this matchup. I stand to make a whopping 20.875 units on a JDG victory in this spot. I hedge my T1 positions last week and punted it all away on props for the series. I do think that was a bit unlucky but I’ll be staying away from the sides in this match but what I’m going to do is take the under kill totals in the first three maps because I think regardless of the winner that we’ll get under 26.5. The numbers project this total higher than that (27-28 range) but it’s pretty skewed by recent series, particularly the final few weeks of the regular season. I’m also going to be on the JDG first blood props because they’ve been one of the better first blood squads in the league and we’re getting an advantagous number relative to the implied odds+low correlation.

I’m doing a partial hedge that leans heavily toward JDG basically to cover my prop wagers + 1.375 unit futures investment.

Hedge vs JDG futures + props for this match

MONEYLINE HEDGE: TOP +133 (5.4 units)

Since I feel rather strongly that JDG win this I’m doing a partial hedge that leans heavily toward JDG basically to cover my prop wagers + 1.375 unit futures investment. It’s a better alternative to a complete blowout. While it’s possible we hit these unders and JDG first blood even in a TOP win, the likelihood is that if TOP win this series these probably wont. With this position we’ll end up with the following:
Worst Case scenario: IF TOP win and we miss every single wager we NET: 0
Medium Worst Case scenario: IF TOP win and we hit some of these wagers NET: whatever we win on wagers
Medium Case Scenario: IF JDG win and we miss all of these wagers NET: +15.09 units
Best Case Scenario: If JDG win and we hit all of these wagers NET: +19.975 units


Map 1:
Prop: JDG first blood @ -127 (0.635  units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -130 (1.3 units)

Map 2:
Prop: JDG first blood @ -127 (0.635  units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -130 (1.3 units)

Map 3:
Prop: JDG first blood @ -127 (0.635 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)

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