Day Three Recap
JD Gaming vs FunPlux (Net: +2.163 units)
Kanavi went berserk on Nidalee in the blind pick game and other than that FPX controlled this series from beginning-to-end. Some of these games took longer to close than others but FPX were in control for almost the entire series. There weren’t as many individual standout performances as much as an overall team effort.
Gen.G vs TOP Esports (Net: -2.03 units)
Other than not taking Varus I absolutely loved Gen.G’s game plan for the blind pick game just straight up calling out that Knight would play Ekko and countering with Pantheon but Rascal and the bottom lane were killed in isolation of any jungle attention which simply can’t happen. Game two was a slightly better start for Gen.G but it honestly looked like Gen.G weren’t watching the map and TOP were there to punish in every single situation. From my experience playing longer tournaments, your processing speed tends to go down but TOP looked really sharp regardless. I understand the Mordekaiser counter to Yuumi in theory but Morde is a champion that needs resources so playing it in the support position I’ve never been a fan of. Gen.G once again have a decent opening in this game before their lack of awareness (perhaps fatigue) started kicking in and TOP capitalized on it.
Parlays: -0.25 units
Live: -0.25 units
Futures Eliminated: JDG +400 (-2.0 units)
Day Three All-Told: 12 – 7 (-2.117 units)
Mid-Season Cup Total: -2.96 units
I didn’t really think about it until I was re-watching the matches from this morning but both teams that played on that long Friday slate and had the short 12 hour layoff before having to return to the venue looked uncharacteristically bad in their knockout stage series. Yagao and JDG in general looked slow to everything and at times just completely unaware of what was happening around them. Gen.G was similar in that they’d make a good play and then be a few seconds behind the play that was happening to them (see all of the bottom lane stuff in game two for example). They also started games completely fine and then the mistakes started piling up after the first ten minutes. Whether or not that really played as big a factor as FPX and TOP showing better today is up for debate I just found it interesting and wanted to mention it.
Considering the egg that Gen.G laid in this series we actually made out decently as they landed first blood in two of the first games and we caught one of the unders despite the TOP victory. Unfortunately the futures setup that I was quite confident in got blown up this morning and we’re officially out on those leaving us naked for the final. While I knew all of these teams were capable of beating each other it still surprised me that we didn’t get any of our three selections into the finals. Pretty wild!
Let’s take a look at Sunday’s final matchup!
I won’t be listing all of the trends that I did in the day one and two posts primarily because this handful of games hasn’t really changed much about them and they aren’t as relevant as current performance and film study with such a small sample size in this scenario.
Day Four – Knockout Stage Finals
TOP Esports -147 (-1.5 maps @ +156, -2.5 @ +428) vs
FunPlus Phoenix +123 (+1.5 maps @ -204, +2.5 @ -667)
Kill Total: 25.5
Kill Spread: -1.5
Time Total: OTB (off the board)
I’m throwing out the regular season matchup between these two as the rosters were different than the ones in this tournament and it was a long time ago.
As boring as it sounds I think this is yet another near 50/50 matchup. Both teams dominated in different ways against opponents who were not playing well on the day so it’s tough to really take anything from the series they played this morning other than they both looked good. I had both of these teams in the same tier and while I personally prefer FPX as a team, you could make an argument either way for this series. Regardless, unless you have a strong take on TOP the only side you should be taking is the underdog given the coin flip nature of the series which is what I’ll be doing.
My composite combined kills per game (CKPG) has this total at 26.625 kills. My odds-weighted CKPG has this at 26.591kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case FPX, my projections show 27.75 kills. The time total-implied CKPM, which is CKPM multiplied by my projected time total, is 26.72 kills.
The numbers scream for an over but both of these teams are exceptional at snowballing a lead so we could end up seeing some lopsided games in this series. However, I also believe that we’ll see a much closer series here than we saw in both this morning based on the performances of the losers today. I also think there is a reasonable chance that the fatigue angle could kick in a bit for these teams and we see a slightly sloppier, slower series than we’re all imagining.
I’m going to be on the overs even considering the snowball angle and that the time total projections have this going a shade over 32 minutes. This should be a bit more of a slugfest.
Both of these teams were high first tower, low first blood teams during the season but their numbers align enough so that I don’t see any value in these markets.
The time total is off the board currently but my projections have this a shade over 32 minutes. I’ll be passing unless we see a 35 or something crazy only because I do think we’ll probably see a closer matchup. Chance for a quarter wager per game if we see a 34 minute line. Will update this post with any selections as always.
Moneyline: FunPlus Phoenix +123 (1 unit)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 kills @ -110 (0.55 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ -111 (0.555 units)
Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 25.5 @ -106 (0.53 units)
Enjoy the finals tomorrow and I’ll be updating this post with any additions later tonight.
See you then!