Tuesday, March 2nd Recap

 

BiliBili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (Net: -0.85 units)

Other than a really impressive team fight win that gave BiliBili a puncher’s chance at a comeback in game two, this was a fairly thorough stomping by Invictus across the board. They won every lane in typical Invictus fashion and when that happens this team looks like one of the best in the world. It’s everything else that we have questions about.

Lucas and Puff continue to look like they could be the long-term solution in the bottom lane. Their first few series have been outstanding, even the loss to Suning.

Suning Gaming vs TT Gaming (Net: -2.79 units)

Game one was somehow closer than the box score looked with TT taking and winning a few skirmishes that they had absolutely no business winning but overall this series was a complete shellacking by Suning including a perfect game in game two. TT didn’t take a tower and only had two drakes to their name for the entire series. Rough showing by Xiaopeng who way overstepped his boundaries on multiple occasions which is why these games got so out of hand. TT gambled and lost.

LPL Net Total: -3.64 units

 

Daily Net Total: -3.64 units

Week of March 1st-7th: +6.16 units


 

LOL Pro League (China)

Week 7 – Day 3

 

eStar Pro +496 (+1.5 maps @ +139, -1.5 @ +811)

vs

RareAtom -714 (-1.5 maps @ -179, +1.5 @ -2000)

 

Map ML Price: EST +331 / RA -476

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +174 / -227)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -116 / -9.5 @ -112

 Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -123 / under -105)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

We’re FINALLY going to get to see Insulator, one of the best prospects the LDL has to offer and part of the reason I was somewhat optimistic about eStar going into the season. Along with Captain, they were the two standout mid lane prospects in the developmental league. Captain hasn’t gotten much of an opportunity after a rough first couple series but this will be Insulator’s debut.

RareAtom continue to climb up the standings in both the LPL and the economy/objective model where they currently sit in 4th just ahead of Team WE and just behind FunPlus and EDG. They have had a fairly soft schedule of late with OMG, TT, and LNG as their previous three opponents. They’ve also won 10 of their last 12 games dating back to before the holiday break where they swept Team WE 2-0. The model does weight recent performance to a degree so that’s likely why we’re seeing them rated so highly but they were floating between 6-7th for most of the season even before this stretch. RareAtom are sometimes a little sloppy but they’re a strong team with just short of an elite level economy. Don’t disrespect them.

I make this price very close to market so I’m going to be passing on a side here. If anything I’d take the eStar +1.5 maps on the Insulator bump. Typically new players get a bump as it’s just as much a new experience for the other side as it is the debutant. We’ve also seen RareAtom drop games to weaker teams. We’re most likely a RareAtom 2-0 but I wouldn’t pay the price for it.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.741

Time-Implied: 26.008

Underdog Win: 27.326

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.722 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  56.25% (RA 50% / EST 62.5%)

Volatility Rating: RA 0.28698 / EST 0.2241 (League Avg: 0.3016)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

eStar team total OVER 8.5 @ -119 (very strong)

RareAtom team total UNDER 16.5 @ -105 (strong)

(alt) OVER 24.5 kills @ -122 (moderate)

OVER 25.5 kills @ -115 (light)

 

Again, pretty close to on market when considering the per game averages, frequencies, and kills per win/loss between these two. Lean to the over 24.5 but this is a pretty sharp price. Pass.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.69 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.41 / 31.41

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 46.67% (RA 60% / EST 33.33%)

Volatility Rating: RA 0.15332 / EST 0.18323 (League Avg: 0.15452)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 31:00 @ -105 (light)

 

Only about 40% of RareAtom’s games have gone under the 31 minute mark and they’re only averaging 32.25 minutes per win. eStar, however, lose are a blistering pace which makes a lot of sense given the fast and loose, “can ShiauC get us rolling?” style they rely on. I’m not sure if Insulator being in makes a massive difference in how they play but I’d think there’s a chance he shows a bit more proactivity on the map compared to Irma who sometimes has some bricks-for-shoes syndrome. I’d lean under but projections and odds are right about right for this one. Pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

eStar first blood @ +118 (VERY strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -278 (strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +195 (light)

 

I’ll be playing both the eStar first blood and under towers. Notably, RareAtom aren’t a bad first blood team themselves so I’ll only be playing this for a half stake.

 

 

 

My Picks:

 

Prop: Map 1 eStar first blood @ +118 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 eStar first blood @ +118 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 eStar first blood @ +118 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -278 (2.78 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -263 (2.63 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -233 (2.33 units)

 

 


 

 

LGD Gaming +607 (+1.5 maps @ +169, -1.5 @ +1012)

vs

Team WE -909 (-1.5 maps @ -222, +1.5 @ -3333)

 

Map ML Price: LGD +373 / WE -556

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +205 / under -270)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -114 / -9.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -102 / under -128)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LGD +1.5 maps @ +169 (strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +205 (moderate)

LGD map moneyline @ +373 (moderate)

LGD series moneyline @ +607 (light)

 

The model does like a play on LGD here but I’m passing. This is a bad LGD team that’s getting a little credit because they’re coming off of back-to-back wins over fellow weak teams Rogue Warriors and TT. Prior to that, they had not won a game since the very first game of the season against Victory Five. WE are a fairly solid macro team. I don’t see them making any stupid mistakes to throw this one away. They also have superior players at every single position. If anything I’d lean toward the WE side of things here but I’m just going to pass.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.264

Time-Implied: 23.921

Underdog Win: 24.125

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.561 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  47.44% (WE 63.64% / LGD 31.25%)

Volatility Rating: WE 0.15508 / LGD 0.34744 (League Avg: 0.3016)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Team WE team total UNDER 17.5 @ -128 (light)

 

LGD are averaging 16.18 deaths per loss. WE 18.915 kills per win. WE have eclipsed this kill total in all but 5 of their 14 wins. I’m tempted to take the under here but they’re very often in that ballpark as it is and I could see them playing around with their food a little here now that they’ve got a slightly easier opponent compared to their recent schedule. Pass.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.091

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.12 / 30.39

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total:  48.58% (WE 40.91% / LGD 56.25%)

Volatility Rating: WE 0.11208 / LGD 0.13016 (League Avg: 0.15452)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

About 60% of WE’s games have gone under this total and they’ve been particularly fast in wins averaging 28.09 minutes. LGD are also losing rather quickly with an average of 30.405 minutes. LGD have gone over this total in 4 of their 11 game losses. I do like the under in this spot but not enough to bet it. Pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LGD first dragon @ +152 (VERY VERY strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +195 (VERY strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -101 (moderate)

 

These are two of the stranger teams when it comes to what they’re doing with the big objectives in the game times they’re doing. What’s interesting here is that the over 4.5 dragons and over 1.5 barons tends to indicate longer game times. LGD are skewing these numbers. 62.5% of LGD games have at least a second baron and 62.5% of their games also have at least a 5th dragon. Weirdly enough, they’re still averaging that 30.405 minutes per loss. It’s pretty tough to thread that needle, very odd. Team WE are also going to a second baron even in some of their faster wins almost 45% of the time. The long and short of it is that apparently these teams are at and taking (or giving up) the macro objectives VERY EARLY in the game which sets us on a faster pace which goes starkly against the overall trend right now which has been slower first dragon takes in favor of contesting at the herald.

All of this is interesting but I’m not sure I want to mess with it in this particular spot as this could very easily be a Team WE speed run, especially if the past few days are any indication. It feels just a little too cute. I’m going to take the LGD first dragon (they’re 68.75% vs WE’s 59.1%) at the huge plus number and if you want to mess with the other stuff go for it.

 

My Picks:

 

Prop: Map 1 LGD first dragon @ +152 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 LGD first dragon @ +152 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 LGD first dragon @ +152 (1 unit)

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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