Sunday, March 28th Recap

 

Royal Never Give Up vs LGD (Net: +2.45 units)

RareAtom vs EDward Gaming (Net: -5.23 units)

T1 vs Hanwha Life (Net: +1.86 units)

Liiv Sandbox vs DRX (Net: +0.81 units)

Rogue vs MAD Lions (Net: +5.793 units)

Dignitas vs 100 Thieves (Net: +1.51 units)

 

LPL Net Total: -2.78 units

LCK Net Total: +2.67 units

LEC Net Total: +5.793 units

LCS Net Total: +1.51 units

 

Daily Net Total: +7.193 units (+12.79% ROI)

 

 

Last Week (March 22nd-28th):  +5.3355 units(+2.4% ROI)

 


 

LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Spring Playoffs

Round 1 – Day 1

 

 

 

#3 Hanwha Life Esports -556 (-1.5 maps @ -222, -2.5 @ +164, +1.5 @ -1429)

vs

#6 Nongshim RedForce +368 (+1.5 maps @ +165, +2.5 @ -219, -1.5 @ +706, -2.5 @ +1104)

 

 

Map ML Price: HLE -278 / NS +207

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -196 / under +151), 4.5 maps (over +240 / under -323)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -108 / +8.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -109 / under -119)

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

HLE Tale of the Tape NS
-184.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min 75.2
83.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -433.0
-364.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 82.1
11.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -32.3
17.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -58.9
170.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -134.5
1826.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1727.6
42.0 Gold / min vs Avg -56.8
69.6 Gold Diff / min -83.9
1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.1
1633.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1572.7
45.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -54.6
1959.7 GPM in wins 1884.5
350.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 272.8
1633.8 GPM in losses 1609.9
-336.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -351.3
72.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -81.4
28.9 Win-Adjusted GPM -46.3
57.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -20.8
57.8 Dragon Control % 51.5
43.0 Herald Control % 47.6
54.1 Baron Control % 43.6
8.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
30.8 % of wins as Quality 8.3

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Nongshim +1.5 maps @ +165 (strong)

Nongshim series moneyline @ +368 (moderate)

Nongshim map moneyline @ +207 (moderate)

OVER 4.5 maps @ +240 (light)

OVER 3.5 maps @ -196 (very light)

 

Quantitative Analysis:

From the numbers perspective Nongshim are better than people would think but that doesn’t mean they’re a good statistical team by any stretch of the imagination. Quite the contrary actually:

Nongshim Ranks in adjusted metrics:

  • 9th in gold per minute in wins
  • 8th in gold differential per minute in wins
  • 9th in gold per minute in losses and gold differential per minute in losses
  • 7th in win-adjusted gold differential per minute
  • 9th in win-adjusted gold per minute
  • 9th in kill agnostic gold differential per minute
  • 8th in kill agnostic gold per minute
  • 5th in overall objective control percentage

Statistically they grade out as the #7 team in the LCK in my economy/objective model and they’re a distant 7th to Afreeca and Sandbox of all teams. For all intents and purposes Nongshim are a fraudulent playoff team. It was widely understood that the #6 seed in the LCK was going to be a good bit weaker than the rest of the playoff field (besides maybe DRX) so this doesn’t come as a surprise but more on that later on.

Hanwha Ranks in adjusted metrics:

  • 1st in gold per minute in wins (basically a three-way tie)
  • 1st in gold differential per minute in wins(basically a three-way tie)
  • 6th in gold per minute in losses
  • 7th in gold differential per minute in losses
  • 1st in win-adjusted gold differential per minute (basically a three-way tie)
  • 1st in win-adjusted gold per minute (basically a three-way tie)
  • 4th in kill agnostic gold differential per minute
  • 4th in kill agnostic gold per minute
  • 3rd in overall objective control percentage

Hanwha look more impressive on paper than I personally think they do on film. They take a lot of risks which I’ll touch more on below but they’ve made their hay completely obliterating the non-elite LCK teams and that’s where most of their impressive statistical profile comes from. They’re 4-11 against the other elite teams but 22-7 otherwise.

Against non-elite (T1, Gen.G, DAMWON) teams Hanwha are averagin about a +1053 gold differential at 20 minutes, an 1881 gold per minute (1671 kill agnostic), and a +2.93% gold percentage rating (GPR) which are similar numbers to the elite teams against the same competition. In many ways Hanwha are like a super gatekeeper much like Afreeca was in the LCK last season just completely obliterating the bad teams and struggling against the top of the table.

Conclusion: Huge edge Hanwha

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 28.137%
3 0 25.823%
3 2 20.439%
2 3 11.657%
1 3 9.153%
0 3 4.791%
(Series Win): 74.399%

(Hanwha projected series win %)

Qualitative Analysis:

I have some issues with the way Hanwha play the game but to their credit they seem to make it work on a fairly consistent basis which is something teams that play this more fast-and-loose style sometimes struggle with. They’re heavily reliant kills and action for the majority of their economy (Lord Chovy withstanding). This is a concern because if they’re ever in lower action games they look much more down to earth. Nongshim are one of the lower combined kills per minute teams if you look at a blend of season long and trending numbers. Their full season number of 0.769 CKPM is roughly average. I could see these game scripts playing against what Hanwha are good at but as I mentioned before, they’re great at making other teams play their game.

Those are the only ways I could tell a story where Nongshim win this series. I tried every which way to make a case against Hanwha and there’s just not a lot of ground to stand on. It’s not because they’re particularly excellent, it’s more that Nongshim are NOT A GOOD TEAM.

I try to blend the numbers and the film. I do a lot of the math for baselines and detail and context but at the end of the day there is still a heavy qualitative element to League of Legends handicapping.  In this specific match I simply cannot get over the Chovy vs Bay mismatch. There are a lot of great players that you can get creative and hide a deficiency against but I just could not come up with a plan where Nongshim can hide Bay in this matchup. For my money Chovy has been the best player in the world this season so far. He’s the best laner on the planet with the only real competition being Knight (statistically). Admittedly he’s blind picked far less than he has previously in his career but he’s still blind in 45% of his games and has a commanding lead in all differential statistics at 10 and 15 minutes. Dude is an animal. Bay is the opposite of that and has been, in my opinion the worst player in the LCK this season that’s played a full starting work load. Best player in the LCK (maybe world) vs the worst player in the LCK in a five game series… that’ll be an impact.

Nongshim are going to have to get really creative or Chovy is just going to take over this entire series and I have a hard time getting over that, especially when they don’t really have any major advantages elsewhere. Maybe you could make an argument for the big match experience of Peanut who has always been clutch in his career and almost solo carried LGD to their World Championship seat. I’d also accept Rich over Morgan but that hasn’t really been the case this season as much, especially considering Morgan has been more of a roleplayer.

To me the only way Nongshim win this series is if they can attack side lanes and find a way for Bay to play neutralizer. Put Rich on carries like Jayce and Aatrox and let him and Peanut try to take over games. Maybe bust out some weird stuff like the Deokdam pocket Heimerdinger. They need to be the ones introducing variance. I could see them stealing a game or two here because I don’t see Hanwha adjusting to things on the fly that well but I just have a tough time seeing Nongshim get the full three games despite the “value” on them here.

Conclusion:Nongshim MUST get creative to overcome the Chovy/Bay matchup or this is over before it starts. Huge edge Hanwha.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.344

Time-Implied: 23.521

Underdog Win: 23.024

“Gelati” Total Projection: 23.621 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 57.95% (HLE 65.91% / NS 50%)

Volatility Rating:  HLE 0.30231 / NS 0.32447 (League Avg: 0.3125)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) OVER 22.5 @ -133 (moderate-strong)

OVER 23.5 @ -114 (moderate)

(alt) OVER 24.5 @ +103 (moderate-light)

—-

Team Totals:

Nongshim team total OVER 8.5 @ -108 (strong)

 

HLE League Average NS
Combined Kills / game 23.554 23.62 22.659
Combined Kills / min 0.774 0.74 0.694
Kills per win 15.865 16.42 15.431
Kills per loss 7.594 7.81 9.063
Deaths per win 7.96 7.65 6.11
Deaths per loss 18.06 16.88 18.25
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.77 9.15 9.50
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.56 9.14 10.13

(these numbers use a composite blend of trending AND season long)

This is a fairly sharp number to me. Both of these teams, Hanwha in particular, have been remarkably consistent when it comes to combined game kill totals. Hanwha are also ridiculously consistent in where their game times fall (right around the 32 minute mark). I’d lean to the over here but this total is VERY likely to fall within this total IF you anticipate a “typical” game script here so this becomes a question of whether or not we actually think Nongshim enforce some bizarre, outside the box strategies in this series or not. If they do these could get wild. Personally that’s what I want them to do but I don’t think I trust them to do that.

The thing with Hanwha is that their season long numbers and their trending numbers are vastly different. They were a significantly bloodier team over the full season sample they were just quiet in their final matches. If we take their season long combined kills per minute of 0.81 we’d get closer to a 26 kill average game which is in line with their season long number.

I agree with the model here and like the kill total over quite a bit.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time:  32.061 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.42 / 32.31

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 47.67% (HLE 47.73% / NS 47.62%)

Volatility Rating: HLE 0.11159 / NS 0.15656 (League Avg: 0.15875)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

HLE NS
Average Game Time 31.89 32.23
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.36 30.98
Avg Game Time (in losses) 31.211 33.647

As I mentioned above, Hanwha are remarkably consistent in their game times landing in the 31-32 minute mark. I rarely play their time totals and I’m not about to start here. Lean over but pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 1.5 barons @ +164 (moderate)

NS first dragon @ -104 (moderate)**

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -200 (moderate)

NS first tower @ +159 (moderate)**

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

I’m not playing any of these. If I had to pick one it’d be the under 12.5 towers. Only about 29% of games between these two goes over that total which is a decent edge on the market price here but as I mentioned earlier I could see Nongshim pulling some cheesy stuff or trying to “rat” victories (as they say in DotA).

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Hanwha Life -556 (5.56 units)

Map Spread: Hanwha Life -1.5 maps @ -222 (1.11 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -127 (1.27 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 23.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 4 OVER 23.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 5 OVER 23.5 @ -108 (1.08 units)

 

 


Preview for rest of the week:

Just to be a little forward looking here I’ll do a quick writeup to tag on at the end before the full scale writeups in the coming days.

I’ve jumped on a handful of positions already in the rest of the leagues playoff matches.

Early Positions:

Invictus -112, IG -1.5 maps, IG first dragon, IG/RA under 12.5 towers

T1 -588, T1 -1.5 maps

MAD Lions all ways (+2.5, +1.5, moneyline, -1.5, -2.5)

 

I haven’t gotten down on it yet but I’m likely going to be on Schalke as well. I figure money is going to come in heavy on Fnatic as the week goes on but model and myself still think that team is a little fraudulent. MAD Lions the number is just way WAY out of whack at +364 on the moneyline. Not as good as public perception for sure.  Probaby going to be on Liquid as well but waiting to see where the number goes.


 

I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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