Tuesday, March 23rd Recap

 

OMG vs JD Gaming (Net: -3.03 units)

Suning vs BiliBili Gaming (Net: -4.06 units)

I’m just going to save some time and write on both of these at the same time because it was essentially the same story.

Can we get just one squirrely underdog team in the LPL bottom half? I’ll take one, anyone. Anyone at all. This league is starting to look more polarized than the LCK was during the Summer where the four top teams beat each other and no bottom six team ever beat those top four. I’ll make the cut at Invictus/LNG but quite literally every other team looks like they have absolutely no idea what they’re doing. I know the top half of the league is very deep but come on… Nobody has ANY IDEA WHATSOEVER about how to play without a lead, hell they barely have an idea of how to play with a lead presumably because they’re just getting obliterated in scrims non-stop.

OMG I’m not particularly surprised about but for BiliBili to end their season like this, going out with a total whimper, is just so sad and I think you’re probably going to see some changes there between seasons if for no other reason than they clearly look checked out regardless of the individual talent present on the roster. Although who knows maybe this team is just bad and Kim can’t save them. They look like they have no idea how to play to their win conditions in every game. The second game in this series they had a beautiful full-court press composition to enable Meteor, drafted three winning lanes, and somehow lost first blood, first dragon, and first herald… like how does that happen?

*grumbles*

LPL Net Total: -7.09 units

 

Daily Net Total: -7.09 units

 

Last Week (March 15th-21st):  -16.94 units (-11.17% ROI)

 

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 10 – Day 3

 

 

 

TOP Esports -3333 (-1.5 maps @ -370)

vs

ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming +1012 (+1.5 maps @ +264, -1.5 @ +2400)

 

 

Map ML Price: TOP -1429 / TT +689

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +290 / under -417)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -110 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -11.5 @ -103 / +11.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 18.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 29:00 (over +110 / under -143)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

  

TOP Tale of the Tape Dominus
2318.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -991.6
1550.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1645.5
144.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1738.9
126.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -5.8
182.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -75.8
550.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 194.6
1923.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1739.3
118.3 Gold / min vs Avg -65.8
219.7 Gold Diff / min -164.8
3.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.3
1678.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1579.6
128.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -92.8
2028.6 GPM in wins 1945.9
439.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 253.7
1702.6 GPM in losses 1649.5
-241.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -346.7
217.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -167.2
62.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -20.0
111.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -73.9
54.0 Dragon Control % 45.3
68.9 Herald Control % 56.9
64.3 Baron Control % 44.4
16.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
76.2 % of wins as Quality 10.0

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

Well then… that’s quite a number. I just lamented how poor underdogs have been in the LPL this season and even with this RIDICULOUS number my model actually shows no value (which is hilarious). That said, TT have been the only half frisky dog we’ve had mostly because they have a very strong early game before they inevitably stall out and lose. First props for them have been  an absolute gold mine this season but more on that in a bit.

Basically the only way you play this series is through kill spreads, unless you think TOP are going to mail it in or something and maybe you take a small piece of the TT sides. More on the kill spread options in the kills section below.

TOP are currently the #5 seed with two matches remaining. TOP and WE play later this week. WE are one win ahead of them but get EDG tomorrow. TOP could still get to a top four seed with a WE loss or even an EDG loss tomorrow and could actually get as high as #2 if WE were to sweep tomorrow and then TOP sweep them later this week. It’s interesting but the point is that I think they’ll be game for this matchup.

I’m not messing with this one from a sides perspective but see below.

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 77.854%
2 1 18.319%
1 2 2.443%
0 2 1.384%
(Series Win): 96.173%

 

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.429

Time-Implied: 28.701

Underdog Win: 30.575

“Gelati” Total Projection: 28.001 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 50% (TOP 51.61% / TT 48.39%)

Volatility Rating:  TOP 0.30734 / TT 0.33433 (League Avg: 0.2998)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) OVER 25.5 @ -125 (light)

(alt) OVER 27.5 @ +110 (light)

—-

Team Totals:

TT team total OVER 7.5 @ -104  (light)

TOP team total UNDER 18.5 @ -122 (light)

TOP League Average TT
Combined Kills / game 27.499 26.64 27.907
Combined Kills / min 0.902 0.88 0.981
Kills per win 17.775 18.26 18.594
Kills per loss 11.981 9.05 9.227
Deaths per win 6.33 8.25 11.20
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 12.00 9.54 6.30
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.10 9.61 9.39

 

 

These are two of the higher combined kills per minute teams in the LPL as well as combined kills per game and that’s despite the fact that their combined average game time is 30.482 minutes. However, TT are also the third most volatile team in the league for kill totals while TOP are near the average. TT’s games are largely dependent on their opponent. Against the bloody teams their games are absolute bonanzas. Against the lower kill squads like Suning and RareAtom they’re VERY low scoring.

This feels like it’s going to be one circus and one clean sweep so I’m not going to bother with the full game total here. My gut tells me there’s a stronger chance TOP just sweep TT under the carpet in two quite games more than other outcomes but I doubt we see this go over twice.

With that game total thought in consideration, I absolutely love the kill spread here. I know I know, I’ve been getting murdered on these the past two weeks and have been non-stop complaining about how underdogs can’t even cover the kill spreads in this league but 11.5 in a game that I’m projecting to go under is just a little too good for me to pass up so that will be how I’m playing this. The counter argument is that TT’s trending AMOD is 10.66 which is really high and they would have failed to cover this spread in 7 of their previous 9 losses. Since week 11, TOP have won by an average margin of 11.1 kills but only would have covered this total in 5 out of 14 contests. Most of their victories are in the 7-10 range.

 

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.482 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.27 / 30.32

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 62.9% (TOP 64.52% / TT 60.61 %)

Volatility Rating: TOP 0.15878 / TT 0.16308 (League Avg: 0.16205)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 29:00 @ +117 (VERY strong)

 

TOP TT
Average Game Time 29.95 31.01
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.09 33.21
Avg Game Time (in losses) 30.143 30.056

 

I really want to take this time total over but TOP have such ridiculous closing speed the second you make any mistakes and TT aren’t exactly slow losers or anything like that. We’re getting plus money on an over 29 which feels criminal. If we look at TOP’s average game time against non-playoff teams it’s 28.9 minutes but that includes 7 instances in which they covered this number out of 13 attempts (2x vs EST, 2x vs OMG 1x vs LGD, 2x vs V5). I’ll just pass this.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TT first herald @ +145 (VERY strong)**

TT first tower @ +220 (VERY strong)**

TT first dragon @ +144 (strong)**

OVER 1.5 barons @ +227 (strong)

TOP first tower @ -323 (moderate)**

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -323 (light)

TOP first blood @ -192 (light)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -172 (very light)

 

** denotes advantage in a position that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

 

Fun Fact: TOP have taken first tower in 19 of their past 20 games.

Lot of options here but as you can see in the Tale of the Tape above, TOP are an exceptional “firsts” team overall. If we look strictly at their past 20 games, 19/20 first towers, 14/20 first heralds, but just 8 first dragons. They’ve only taken all three in five games (still insane). I like the TT first dragon quite a bit here. TOP have been playing the tempo game recently, opting to snowball through herald/tower’s gold injection. I think the under

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Spread: Map 1 TT +10.5 kills @ +104 (1 unit)

Kill Spread: Map 2 TT +10.5 kills @ -101 (1.01 units)

Kill Spread: Map 3 TT +10.5 kills @ -112 (1.12 units)

Prop: Map 1 TT first dragon @ +144 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 TT first dragon @ +144 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 TT first dragon @ +136 (1 unit)

 


Team WE +133 (+1.5 maps @ -222, -1.5 @ +383)

vs

EDward Gaming -169 (-1.5 maps @ +169, +1.5 @ -588)

 

 

Map ML Price: WE +121 / EDG -154

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +103 / under -132)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -116 / -4.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -111 / under -116)

 

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

EDG Tale of the Tape WE
201.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min 792.8
333.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min 2202.7
172.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min 2602.8
19.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 43.5
57.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 72.2
458.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 557.7
1863.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1901.7
58.8 Gold / min vs Avg 97.3
163.6 Gold Diff / min 197.8
2.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.7
1663.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1673.9
92.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 132.6
1937.7 GPM in wins 2006.0
308.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 392.7
1639.6 GPM in losses 1672.3
-272.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -231.2
161.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 195.8
-27.2 Win-Adjusted GPM 41.0
-18.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 65.6
61.8 Dragon Control % 55.0
50.8 Herald Control % 60.3
56.8 Baron Control % 64.1
7.0 Quality Wins? 11.0
29.2 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

WE -1.5 maps @ +383 (VERY strong)

WE series moneyline @ +133 (VERY strong)

WE map moneyline @ +121 (strong)

 

Both teams here are battling for a top four and potentially a top two seed for playoffs, both of which are critically important given the overall depth at the top of the table in the LPL. This bracket is going to be an absolute nightmare to traverse and any byes you can accrue are extremely valuable. This should be an awesome series.

I guess my question is why isn’t this number closer to even money? I think people “trust” EDG more than WE but just about every measure I have points to WE being the better team. They’re slightly better in losses, wins, adjusted differentials, kill agnostic differentials, overall objective control, have more quality wins, and they’re one of the best early game teams on the planet. WE’s losses are to JDG, RareAtom, and RNG. EDG’s are to TOP, Invictus, and RNG. I don’t think either of those is particularly “much harder” than the other so what gives here? I’m not sure.

My economy/objective model makes WE a better team more or less across the board. My individual player model makes WE a stronger overall team by a non-negligible amount. Does this match what my eyes see? I think these two teams are about even with different preferences in terms of how they like to play.

AT WORST this is an even money matchup to me. If you dive a little deeper and look at the kinds of teams they’ve each lost too they’re more or less mirrored in that they lose to the kind of teams each other are (EDG to snowballing, WE to intelligent scalers). I think WE are slightly better but even if you think they’re even getting a plus money price on this just feels great to me.

 

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 32.032%
1 2 27.806%
2 1 21.324%
2 0 18.838%
(Series Win): 40.162%

(this is EDG’s win rate according to the model)

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.391

Time-Implied: 25.277

Underdog Win: 27.418

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.244

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 46.875% (EDG 37.5% / WE 56.25%)

Volatility Rating:  EDG 0.26599 / WE 0.20537 (League Avg: 0.2998)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 26.5 @ -139 (very light)

—-

Team Totals:

WE team total OVER 12.5 @ -109 (strong)

 

 

EDG League Average WE
Combined Kills / game 22.500 26.45 26.281
Combined Kills / min 0.712 0.88 0.907
Kills per win 16.802 18.29 19.074
Kills per loss 8.344 9.13 7.500
Deaths per win 7.67 8.20 8.59
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 8.63 9.57 9.90
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 6.63 9.61 10.00

 

 

Fast and furious vs slow and steady. Typically when we’ve seen these types of teams collide it’s just been about whoever wins the game. Given that I think this will be a competitive contest we’re likely to see at least one over and one under. I’m not going to try to guess which is which so I’ll just be passing.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.22 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.95 / 31.54

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 40.625% (EDG 53.125% / WE 28.215%)

Volatility Rating: EDG 0.14019 / WE 0.12985 (League Avg: 0.16205)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 32:00 @ -116 (moderate-strong)

 

 

EDG WE
Average Game Time 32.33 30.11
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.25 27.95
Avg Game Time (in losses) 32.590 34.163

 

Similar to the above. Likely split games one and one here. If you’re bullish one way or the other you could bet that way but I’ll pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

WE first tower @ +101 (strong)**

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -238 (strong)

EDG first dragon @ -127 (moderate)**

WE first herald @ -127 (moderate)**

WE first dragon @ -108 (moderate)**

 

** denotes advantage in a position that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

 

I love getting cheap prices on the under 12.5 towers even in series that I expect to be close. It’s not as correlated as you’d think to “competitive games.”

 

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Team WE +133 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ +383 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -233 (2.33 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -238 (2.38 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -213 (2.13 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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