Monday, March 15th Recap

 

LGD Gaming vs RareAtom (Net: -0.21 units)

(suggested model plays from my writeup for Monday, March 15th)

I rarely regret not making a play. The model was all over this suggesting a “VERY strong” position on LGD. I didn’t give enough credence to the concept of a let-down spot for RareAtom coming off of an emotional high from the previous week’s victories for a match they clearly didn’t do much preparation for. I indirectly played this narrative through the RareAtom team total under but probably should have just went with either LGD outright or both angles as this was a prime spot AND RareAtom were overpriced. But hey, hindsight is 20/20 right? Live and learn.

The games themselves went about how you’d expect these two teams to play. Other than a quick snowball in game two, these were long, grindy games including the longest game of the LPL season in game three. For those saying there’s no way RA were outscaled in that game, do yourselves a favor and play Karthus in a 50 minute game against a team fully leveled up and with magic resist and lockets and if you’re against ANY kind of zone control whatsoever you can’t get into a relevant spot without flash. It’s harder than it looks, take it from the million plus mastery points Karthus one-trick.

This was a let-down spot for RareAtom and a must win for LGD, in hindsight I feel stupid for not backing LGD here but I’m not holding this against RA. I will, however, upgrade LGD a tad to “maybe better than the rest of the bottom of the barrel” tier. Benthopelagic if you want your vocabulary word for the day.

Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (TT) (Net: -2.08 units)

I have no real comment on this series except that when Invictus smash someone, they do it in such dominant and demoralizing fashion. I’m not sure there’s been a team ever in the history of professional LOL that smashes just as hard as Invictus does when they do actually smash someone. They had a 7k gold lead at 13 minutes in one of these games… that’s disgusting.

ThunderTalk tried a scaling comp in game one, a different look for them, that clearly didn’t work and went back to something more “on-brand” and that didn’t work either. They were clearly outclassed here and Invictus doesn’t appear that they want to just drift out of the playoff picture. Easy schedule the rest of the way I’d guess they’re in.

Parlays: -0.31 units

We missed these cashing by LGD taking one extra tower in game one of that series. Was a good position. It happens.

 

LPL Net Total: -2.6 units

 

Daily Net Total: -2.6 units

 

Last Week (March 8th-14th): +1.305 units (+0.5% ROI)

 

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 9 – Day 2

 

LGD Gaming -179 (-1.5 maps @ +172, +1.5 @ -526)

vs

OMG +138 (+1.5 maps @ -227, -1.5 @ +360)

 

 

Map ML Price: LGD -154 / OMG +121

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -101 / under -125)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -118 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -128 / +2.5 @ -101

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -108 / under -122)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OMG series moneyline @ +138 (very light)

OMG +1.5 maps @ -227 (very light)

OMG map moneyline @ +121 (miniscule)

 

This opened roughly even money depending on where you looked with OMG actually slight favorites early this weekend and that made a whole lot of sense given what we had seen from these two. Do we really think this big of a move is warranted from LGD winning a series against a RareAtom team that was in a let-down spot? I mean maybe, they still have to beat the team and LGD looked excellent on the day. It was by far their best series of the year, no question, but this is an overreaction.

Going into this week I made this market right on the number, to the point where neither side was a value, a firm pass, but I’m obliged to take some OMG here. Unless you want to give a huge confidence bump to LGD keeping their long-shot playoff chances alive and OMG “being done” for the season, then I think you have to be on the dogs or pass here. With the vig distributed back in the model makes this series price -145 / +113. If you aren’t buying OMG then that’s fine but do yourself a favor and don’t eat the 7% extra just to back LGD at this inflated price.

LGD Tale of the Tape OMG
-915.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -1066.6
-1891.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -2082.8
-2590.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2322.3
-150.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -58.1
-109.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -146.2
476.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -231.6
1710.3 Gold /min 1677.9
-94.7 Gold / min vs Avg -127.2
-173.7 Gold Diff / min -231.6
-2.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.2
1571.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1542.6
-106.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -134.1
48.8 Dragon Control % 44.9
28.6 Herald Control % 48.4
37.8 Baron Control % 42.1
3.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
30.0 % of wins as Quality 25.0

(these factor in a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.145

Time-Implied: 25.367

Underdog Win: 25.556

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.416 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 44.18% (LGD 46.43% / OMG 41.94%)

Volatility Rating: LGD 0.31862 / OMG 0.31788 (League Avg: 0.3050)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 26.5 kills @ -128 (moderate-strong)

UNDER 25.5 kills @ -110 (moderate-light)

(alt) UNDER 24.5 @ -103 (light)

—-

Team Totals:

OMG team total UNDER 11.5 kills @ -104 (VERY strong)*

LGD team total UNDER 13.5 kills @ -108 (strong)*

 

As always the model does factor in the records and per win angles but weights heavily toward frequencies so it’s going to suggest unders here. This is more often than not an indication to just take the game total under. Projections suggest the 25.5 is about right but these teams aren’t even close to hitting that in their games, wins or losses, most of the time.

In games vs non-playoff teams OMG are averaging 25.1 combined kills per game, LGD 23.08. OMG had a few EXTREME outliers in their non-playoff sample (37 vs BLG, 41 vs EST) and their season long they also had a 46 vs RNG. If we cut those we get a 23.5 combined kill per game average for the season.

Both of these teams prefer to play it slow and steady and either abuse globals (OMG) or just play traditional two-core style (LGD). This could end up being a clown fiesta but I’ll take the under. These teams clearly haven’t mailed it in or anything like that.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.544 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.72 / 31.69

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 38.82% (LGD 35.71% / OMG 41.94%)

Volatility Rating: LGD 0.18952 / OMG 0.16941 (League Avg: 0.16251)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 32:00 @ -122 (moderate)

 

LGD OMG
Average Game Time 30.63 30.46
Avg Game Time (in wins) 34.96 34.36
Avg Game Time (in losses) 28.221 29.101

 

Again the model considers frequency so when you have two weaker teams that are particularly weak in the early game, they’re going to get steamrolled quickly by good opponents more often than not and that needs to be considered when looking at this. These two teams don’t exactly win quickly when they do get them. I’ll be passing on this.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LGD first dragon @ -122 (strong)**

OMG first dragon @ -111 (strong)**

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -256 (very light)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ +100 (miniscule)

 

Obviously these two teams are built similarly with mirrors “firsts” percentages and overall control rates. None of these prices are particularly good.

Regarding the unders on towers and dragons, again I’ll reiterate that these teams are frequently smashed and that’s baked in here so maybe the overs are actually worth a look here. That said, we’re not getting good enough prices on them so I’m just passing.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: OMG +138 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +360 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 25.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 25.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

 

 

 


Victory Five +638 (+1.5 maps @ +180, -1.5 @ +1012)

vs

TOP Esports -1250 (-1.5 maps @ -238, +1.5 @ -3333)

 

 

Map ML Price: V5 +391 / TOP -588

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +216 / under -294)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -119 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -116 / -10.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over +123 / under -161)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

V5 +1.5 maps @ +180 (strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +216 (moderate)

V5 map moneyline @ +391 (moderate)

V5 series moneyline @ +638 (light)

 

Both of these teams still have quite a bit to play for.

At 5-8, V5 more or less have to win out and pray for LNG, Suning, and Invictus to choke and give up one of the last spots, not to mention a little help from BiliBili along the way. The odds are slim, especially given their remaining schedule (FPX and IG after this) but you can expect V5 to show up here and try to rally.

Meanwhile, TOP have four matches remaining and could legitimately still finish with the #1 seed since they play RNG later this week. Regardless of whether or not they get all the way to #1, they’re going to want to fight for better playoff seeding. They’ll still be motivated here as well although you could make an argument that this is a bit of a look-ahead spot to the aforementioned showdown with RNG on Saturday.

When we get to these last two weeks it’s very often a question of motivation and or situation. The numbers on these favorites end up getting so large that you basically can’t play them and just have to make a decision on whether or not to play the underdog. I have concerns about V5 floundering a bit. It seems like they want to get away from the very thing that made them good, uptempo, execution based early game snowballing, and become more well rounded. I can respect this as an organization but they’re simply not very good at this yet and it’s definitely not what I want to see when backing an underdog against a team like TOP Esports that will just run you over via the laning phase if you let them.

The past three matches I’ve expected V5 to revert back to their bread-and-butter with their backs against the wall but they really just don’t seem that interested in doing that. So that’s my main concern with backing them to win this outright but as you’ll read later on here, I think the way to play this is via kill spreads rather than an outright position. Just like the previous match, just don’t back the favorite. You’re overpaying big time for them in this case by double digit percentages so just don’t do it and decide whether you want to back the dog or just pass on a side.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 30.132

Time-Implied: 25.072

Underdog Win: 27.948

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.19 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 50.12% (TOP 51.85% / V5 48.39%)

Volatility Rating:  TOP 0.32723 / V5 0.32397 (League Avg: 0.3050)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

—-

Team Totals:

V5 team total OVER 7.5 @ -123 (VERY strong)

TOP team total UNDER 17.5 @ -109 (light)

 

Kills per win 17.113 16.573
Kills per loss 11.375 13.539

(TOP on left, V5 on right, formatting not working right)

When I see favorite under and dog over suggested I first look at how much the “value” vs the odds is playing into this weighting and then I consider the kill spread, particularly if it’s large. V5 have a composite (blend season long and trending) average margin of defeat (AMOD) of 9.32 kills. TOP’s composite average margin of victory (AMOV) is 10.13 kills. TOP are 6-5 against the kill spread as favorites of 9.5 kills or more this season but I like to think Victory Five are a step above the teams they whooped in these games. The underdogs that covered? BiliBili twice at +9.5, eStar in game 2 +9.5, RW twice at +9.5 in week two. If V5 show up looking themselves 10.5 is a lot of kills to cover in short games. If the “new look” V5 shows up TOP might just run this over in short order even more. I’ll take the V5 kill spread.

It’s worth noting that I’m not going to play the full game total over just because these two teams are fairly volatile (both in the top 6) in combined kills per game volatility. They’re either complete blood baths or VERY low scoring. I’d rather play a kill spread in a spot like this.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.061 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.77 / 30.67

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 44.8% (TOP 44.44% / V5 45.16%)

Volatility Rating: TOP 0.16441 / V5 0.16403 (League Avg: 0.16251)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

TOP V5
Average Game Time 29.82 30.31
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.72 28.58
Avg Game Time (in losses) 30.598 31.393

 

30 minutes is a pretty short time total that I’d instinctively lean over on but these two teams win quickly and V5 especially tend to lose quickly.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

V5 first tower @ +163 (VERY strong)**

V5 first herald @ +123 (strong)**

TOP first tower @ -227 (moderate-strong)**

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -192 (light)

TOP first blood @ -164 (light)**

V5 first blood @ +126 (light)**

 

Regarding the firsts here, both of these teams are either similarly strong or TOP are significantly better but priced out of my acceptable range considering their opponent is pretty good. If I had to pick one here it’d be V5 first herald. The under 4.5 dragons vs the under time total you probably just want to take the under time total if you’re going to play that market. The difference between games that are under 4.5 dragons and over 30 minutes doesn’t cover the price here so just take the time total under if you’re going that route. I won’t be and will just pass on props here. Gun to my head I’d take V5 first herald.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Spread: Map 1 V5 +10.5 kills @ -116 (1.16 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 V5 +10.5 kills @ -116 (1.16 units)

(map 3 kill spread is dropped big time and juiced so I’ll just pass, I doubt it gets there anyway)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

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