Tuesday, March 9th Recap
FunPlus Phoenix vs LGD Gaming (Net: -0.65 units)
There is really not a lot to say about this series. Two under 22 minute wins for FPX and that wasn’t even with some whacky snowball pick for Doinb or any kind of cheese. LGD just brutalized by better players.
TOP Esports vs BiliBili Gaming (Net: -0.2 units)
This one was a little more interesting. BiliBili put up fights in both of these games. In fact, I’d argue they probably should have won game two with the lead that they had but TOP did a good job taking even trades from a deficit and eventually capitalized on a huge mistake, which looked like a miscommunication of some kind, by Meteor on an errant engage.
Not the sharpest series from TOP but I thought BiliBili played pretty well and all it took was a few errors for TOP to flip both of these games into wins.
LPL Net Total: -0.85 units
Daily Net Total: -0.85 units
Current Week (March 8th-14th): +2.04 units (ROI: +3.93%)
LOL Pro League (China)
Week 8 – Day 3
RareAtom -625 (-1.5 maps @ -167, +1.5 @ -2000)
vs
Victory Five +408 (+1.5 maps @ +128, -1.5 @ +829)
Map ML Price: RA -333 / V5 +247
Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +168 / under -217)
Kill Total: 26.5 (over +100 / under -130)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -118 / +7.5 @ -111
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -110 / under -119)
(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
V5 +1.5 maps @ +128 (VERY strong)
V5 series moneyline @ +408 (VERY strong)
V5 map moneyline @ +247 (strong)
OVER 2.5 maps @ -217 (strong)
y4 is back in the lineup for Victory Five. To me this doesn’t have a huge effect on the handicap for this game unless you think they’ve got something specific planned but it feels more like a change for the sake of change type of substitution since they’ve been struggling of late.
Victory Five continue to try different looks than their bread and butter, uptempo style that they’re so good at, and instead opting for more traditional two-core lineups. I’m not sure if scrims just aren’t going well or they can’t get on the same page or what but as long as V5 aren’t “doing their thing” I like them a lot less than I would in most circumstances. We saw them get out to a good start against Suning in game two and still look completely lost with superior scaling when it looked like they had stabilized. What separated this team from the pack was their willingness to dial up the pace of a game and draft accordingly. I understand why they’re doing this from an organizational standpoint, eventually you have to develop and show that you have more tools in the toolbox, but it’s not good for us as bettors looking to back them right now.
RareAtom have been quietly putting together a very solid season and a huge win against FunPlus this weekend brought them into the forefront of a lot of people’s minds that had not been paying attention to them. They’ve mostly been a more scaling, dragon-centric team but they’ve shown a number of different looks this season and their entire roster has played a TON of champions and had success on most of them. The catch with RareAtom is that they had mostly put up these good performances against the weaker teams in the league so there were questions about whether or not they were ready to take the next step and hang with the top dogs.
V5 have been sliding, dropping their last six games but I can’t help but think that they’ve identified that, with their backs against the wall, they’ve got to get back to what they were good at. This is a must-win match for V5. At 5-7 with TOP, FPX, and Invictus as their final three matches, it’d be pretty tough to expect them to win all three to get them to that coveted nine win total that it looks like teams will likely need to clinch a playoff berth. RareAtom, on the other hand, could do that here and I’d expect that they’re going to want better seeding with such a strong playoff bracket so I think you’ll be getting a good effort from them here.
RareAtom should take care of business here but this line is an overreaction and there is a lot of upside in Victory Five compared to playing the favorites here. Victory Five are a better team than their record and that we’ve seen recently AND you’re asking me to buy high on RareAtom? Forget about it. I’m not sure it makes a huge impact but there’s a chance V5 are invigorated by y4 returning to the lineup or, more importantly, if they just go back to their fast-paced, uptempo style that they’re so good at. I don’t see a lot of reason to back the favorites here so this is an underdog or pass situation. RareAtom look great most of the time but this is a team that has dropped games to TT and OMG so again, the upside is with the dog. I’ll be making a play on Victory Five here and that should mean something coming from someone that’s been a strong backer of RareAtom/Vici.
Other Markets:
Kill Total Model Projections:
Odds-Weighted: 29.49
Time-Implied: 26.554
Underdog Win: 27.844
“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.694 kills
Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 46.69% (RA 52% / V5 41.38%)
Volatility Rating: RA 0.31148 / V5 0.29971 (League Avg: 0.3004)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
RA team total UNDER 16.5 @ -127 (strong)
V5 team total OVER 8.5 @ -123 (strong)
If you exclude the hilariously bloody game three against FPX, RareAtom are giving up just 8.2 deaths per win and averaging 16.0 kills per win. V5 are averaging 8.58 kills per loss but it’s a highly volatile number that’s almost entirely on the margins and not near that average. I’ll be passing on these but I’d lean toward the V5 team total over, I’d rather play kill spreads or the outright if I was attacking this angle. Pass from me.
Time Total Projection:
Combined AVG Game Time: 31.723 minutes
Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.85 / 31.75
Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 43.52% (RA 56% / V5 31.03%)
Volatility Rating: RA 0.15215 / V5 0.15981 (League Avg: 0.16094)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
UNDER 32:00 @ -119 (light)
| RA | V5 | ||
| Average Game Time | 33.41 | 30.04 | |
| Avg Game Time (in wins) | 33.04 | 28.58 | |
| Avg Game Time (in losses) | 34.065 | 31.061 |
This market is interesting. V5 have been trying to play slower but if you think they’re going to go back to their more uptempo look in this series then they tend to win fast AND lose fast so it’s not a bad idea to look at the under. I think they might but with this juiced to the under I’m just going to pass.
Other Derivatives:
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
V5 first tower @ +148 (VERY strong)
V5 first herald @ -123 (light)
UNDER 12.5 towers @ -263 (light)
V5 first blood @ +115 (very light)
OVER 1.5 barons @ +152 (very light)
I like V5 first herald and first tower quite a bit here. By the price, first tower is the stronger play, by the differentials first herald is the stronger play. I don’t normally like paying juice twice on correlated plays unless I think it’s overhwelming so I’m just going to stick with the first herald in this case. If you want to take on some more risk for a better payout I think the first tower is a great play as well.
RareAtom have gone over 12 towers in a win in just one instance this entire season (game three vs FPX) and just twice total the entire season. It makes sense, their laning phase has been incredibly strong this season (just look at their individual player grades). Victory Five have been really battling in their losses though going well over that threshold on multiple occasions. This looked like a slam dunk to me but I Victory Five are very good at cross map trading and frequently jump out to leads when they’re “doing their thing.” I’ll pass on that this time around.
My Picks:
Map Spread: Victory Five +1.5 maps @ +128 (1 unit)
Moneyline: Victory Five +416 (0.5 units)
Map Spread: Victory Five -1.5 maps @ +829 (0.25 units)
Prop: Map 1 Victory Five first herald @ -123 (1.23 units)
Prop: Map 2 Victory Five first herald @ -137(1.37 units)
Prop: Map 3 Victory Five first herald @ -123 (1.23 units)
Suning -3333 (-1.5 maps @ -370)
vs
Rogue Warriors +1012 (+1.5 maps @ +271, -1.5 @ +1900)
Map ML Price: SN -1111 / RW +588
Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +298 / under -417)
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -128 / under -102)
Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -122 / +10.5 @ -108
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 6.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over +114 / under -149)
(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
RW +1.5 maps @ +271 (strong)
OVER 2.5 maps @ +298 (moderate)
RW map moneyline @ +588 (moderate)
RW series moneyline @ +1012 (light)
Again, as I discussed yesterday, when you get favorites of this magnitude you’re usually making the case against taking a shot on the underdog. Suning haven’t exactly been the cleanest team over the last year or so, they end up in these really sloppy games very often… but they’ve been playing arguably the best LOL we’ve seen them playing since the World Championships in 2020 and more importantly for this specific handicap, they’ve been absolutely destroying weaker teams. Well, Rogue Warriors are arguably the weakest team in the league.
Other than their above average herald control rate, Rogue Warriors are in the bottom two in just about every measurable. They also don’t seem to have a good read on the metagame based on their drafts and there’s a good chance they don’t really care about the rest of this season the way they’ve been playing. This could end up being a good thing for them in a “nothing to lose” situation, after all, we did see this team upset TOP week one (although TOP sorta beat themselves). Full stop, this team straight up sucks and I think they’re probably the worst team in the league even though the model thinks that title belongs to eStar or LGD. At least those teams look like they’ve got a grasp on things and just don’t have the horses to compete. Rogue Warriors are just yolo’ing at this point.
I don’t really want any part of a side in this contest. Rogue Warriors are losing by an average margin of 10.7 kills and Suning are winning by an average margin of 10.92 kills this season so that market seems out too even though I typically like double digit kill spread dogs.
Other Markets:
Kill Total Model Projections:
Odds-Weighted: 24.671
Time-Implied: 23.759
Underdog Win: 24.256
“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.256 kills
Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 58.53% (SN 47.83% / RW 69.23%)
Volatility Rating: SN 0.32666 / RW 0.35332 (League Avg: 0.3004)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
Suning team total UNDER 16.5 kills @ -116 (very strong)
Rogue Warriors team total OVER 6.5 kills @ +100 (light)
OVER 22.5 kills @ -128 (light)
(alt) OVER 23.5 kills @ +100 (miniscule)
You’re relying a lot on Rogue Warriors to put up a fight if you like this over. Suning have been playing surprisingly clean LOL in their past few matches, opting for the smart play over the stylish one more often than not which could work against you here. If this was a typical matchup between these two I’d slam this over but not with the way they’ve both been playing in recent weeks. Pass.
Time Total Projection:
Combined AVG Game Time: 31.613 minutes
Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.77 / 31.24
Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 61.46% (SN 65.22% / RW 57.69%)
Volatility Rating: SN 0.18376 / RW 0.15096 (League Avg: 0.16094)
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
OVER 30:00 @ +114 (strong)
I know teams have been speed running a lot in the LPL but at +114 on the over it’s tempting. I’ll pass this.
Other Derivatives:
Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):
Rogue Warriors first herald @ +132 (VERY strong)
UNDER 12.5 towers @ -312 (strong)
OVER 4.5 dragons @ +123 (light)
OVER 1.5 barons @ +200 (very light)
Rogue Warriors first tower @ +198 (very light)
I like the first herald and under 12.5 towers in this match just like the model does.
My Picks:
Prop: Map 1 RW first herald @ +132 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 RW first herald @ +132 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 3 RW first herald @ +132 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -312 (3.12 units)
Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -312 (3.12 units)
Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -294 (2.94 units)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)
