Tuesday, June 8th Recap
OMG vs RareAtom (Net: no action)
EDward Gaming vs BiliBili Gaming (Net: +1.14 units)
Daily Net Total: +1.14 units
LPL Summer 2021
Week One – Day Three
I’ll be getting back into the more detailed data driven posts over the course of the next week once I get a feel for how much of it is going to apply in cases with a lot of roster changes which includes this one.
I’m also steering clear of totals and props because I want to see how the new patch and metagame develop a bit as well as which roster changes are positive and negative.
FunPlus Phoenix -5000 (-1.5 maps @ -400)
Ultra Prime (eStar) +1162 (+1.5 maps @ +287, -1.5 @ +2400)
Map Moneyline: FPX -1250 / UP +638
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -119 / under -110)
Kill Spread: -11.5 @ -105 / +11.5 @ -123
Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 6.5
Time Total: 29:00 (over +151 / under -200)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -429 / +299 (map), -966 / +552 (series), -176 / +138 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Suggested Play: UltraPrime +1.5 maps @ +287
FPX – Nuguri, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp
UP – Zs, H4cker, Xiaocaobao, Smlz, ShiauC
Well, we saw what FPX did to Rogue Warriors the other day and while I’m a little bit more optimistic about UltraPrime than my colleagues, they’re still a bottom of the table team in the LPL against an absolute juggernaut. You can’t really pay for FPX here and all of the derivative markets are on the pricey side as well so this is a classic case of either hold your nose and take the underdog to cover or just pass. FPX aren’t a particularly good against the kill spread team so if you wanted to attack this series from that angle I’d understand but I’m just steering clear of this one entirely. As I mentioned in my day one writeup, unfortunately the LPL is just going to be a lot of this during the Summer season but day one, with a new mid laner in Xiaocaobao and a veteran ADC in Smlz I could see it. FPX just look like they’re un full “FU” mode already and I’m not stepping in front of that train.
If I had to make a pick then UltraPrime first blood isn’t a bad look. They had a 66.6% rate in Spring and FPX had just under 50%.. I’ll be passing on this altogether though.
Victory Five +254 (+1.5 maps @ -111, -1.5 @ +687)
LNG Esports -345 (-1.5 maps @ -114, +1.5 @ -1429)
Map Moneyline: V5 +195 / LNG -256
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -116 / under -112)
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -105 / -7.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +122 / under -159)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +116 / -146 (map), +132 / -167 (series), -245 / +187 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)
Suggested Play: Victory Five +1.5 maps @ -111 (strongest), V5 series ML +254
V5 – Invincible, pzx, Uniboy, Kepler, ZYF
LNG – Ale, Tarzan, Icon, Light, Iwandy
I wasn’t a fan of V5’s offseason moves but the general vibe is that they just wanted to blow this up and start fresh. A little weird to me considering I liked a few of the pieces they had but sometimes you just need to burn it down to start anew. A few of these players we’ve seen at times before in the LPL but most of them have spent their careers in the LDL for various amounts of time. My concern is how late this roster came together. Invincible is the strongest of these prospects based on his LDL performance but we shall see how this all pans out.
LNG were a classic “gatekeeper” team taking care of business against all of the teams lower than themselves albeit not convincingly at times, but simply couldn’t compete with the top nine teams at all (one series win). I personally don’t think this team is that good and thought M1kuya was actually one of the stronger performers despite his inconsistencies. He hard carried a handful of games for them last split so it’s a little weird to be seeing Ale here. The bottom lane is rock solid and Tarzan might not be quite the ridiculous level that he used to be but this meta could be amazing for me. I’m not as big a fan of Icon as most people are and think he’s tremendously overrated BUT this metagame is excellent and he should be well-positioned to succeed, at least early on. If he doesn’t perform well on these patches then I’d think about moving on from him if I were LNG.
LNG should handle this but it’s day one for both of these teams in a high volatility metagame on a patch that appears to have drastically different interpretations by the few teams we’ve seen play on it so far across the world. There’s also the lack of experience on both sides, for the rookies and the veterans to “feel out” these new players. I’m going to take a position on the underdogs here I think they can steal one at least. Abstaining is perfectly fine here as well but I think LNG sides are an extremely poor value and I’d stay away from backing them.
Map Spread: V5 +1.5 maps @ -111 (1.11 units)
Moneyline: V5 +254 (0.5 units)
Map Spread: V5 -1.5 maps @ +687 (0.1 units)
LCK Summer 2021
Week One – Day One
Just like with the LCS and LPL, I’ll be getting back into the more detailed data driven posts over the course of the next weeks once I get a feel for how much of it is going to apply in cases with a lot of roster changes which includes this one. For the most part I’m also steering clear of totals and props because I want to see how the new patch and metagame develop a bit as well as which roster changes are positive and negative.
Fredit BRION +169 (+1.5 maps @ -192, -1.5 @ +454)
Liiv Sandbox -222 (-1.5 maps @ +147, +1.5 @ -714)
Map Moneyline: BRO +143 / LSB -185
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -109 / under -119)
Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -110 / -4.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -102 / under -127)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +138 / -178 (map), +172 / -226 (series), -193 / +148 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)
Suggested Play: none (all negative value)
My initial instinct was to absolutely hammer Sandbox and I mentioned that on last week’s episode of The Gold Card Podcast but there’s just a lot of uncertainty in this situation. It’s day one, the patch is highly volatile, and there’s no telling how the LCK overall is going to absorb and adapt to this style if they even do. I still feel pretty strongly about my LSB position but I’m going to keep it modest here instead of charging head first into a brick wall. It’s interesting to note that the kill totals are very similar to those that we’ve seen in the LPL markets so far. Perhaps an under is the play but I’ll let the data play out on that, if I miss the boat then so be it.
Moneyline: Liiv Sandbox -222 (2.22 units)
Map Spread: Liiv Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +147 (0.5 units)
T1 -217 (-1.5 maps @ +150, +1.5 @ -714)
Hanwha Life Esports +168 (+1.5 maps @ -192, -1.5 @ +445)
Map Moneyline: T1 -189 / HLE +145
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -108 / under -120)
Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -119 / +4.5 @ -109
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +115 / under -149)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -131 / +102 (map), -140 / +111 (series), +216 / -287 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Suggested Play: Hanwha series moneyline @ +168 (strongest), map and +1.5 maps slightly less
UPDATE: Monitoring this situation. There’s a chance this match isn’t played tomorrow.
A message from T1 pic.twitter.com/RvTGF1hR72
— T1 LoL (@T1LoL) June 8, 2021
This should be a sweet opening day matchup between two teams that people have various questions about going into the Summer season. I’m generally bullish on T1 and slightly more bearish than the market (and model) seem to be on Hanwha Life for reasons discussed in my preview article but I think this is close enough to market that I’m just going to pass. If I absolutely had to take a position it’d be on T1 moneyline but it feels a dumb paying the premium for it on day one of the split with so many variables in play here as mentioned in the last match regarding the patch, metagame, etc.
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)