Tuesday, June 29th Recap

 

LGD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (Net: -3.03 units)

UltraPrime vs EDward Gaming (Net: -3.25 units)

 

LPL Net Total: -6.28 units

 

Daily Net Total: -6.28 units


 

LPL Summer 2021

Week Four – Day Three

 

 

 

Team WE -179 (-1.5 maps @ +166, +1.5 @ -625)

vs

BiliBili Gaming +139 (+1.5 maps @ -217, -1.5 @ +402)

 

Map Moneyline: WE -167 / BLG +129

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -118 / +5.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -122 / under -105)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -130 / +101 (map), -138 / +108 (series), +218 / -293 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: BLG series moneyline and +1.5 maps

Starters:

WE – Breathe, Beishang, Shanks, Elk, Missing

BLG – Biubiu, Weiwei, Zeka, Aiming, ppgod

League Rank WE Tale of the Tape BiliBili League Rank
14.0 -405.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -151.2 11.0
15.0 -1122.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min -403.6 12.0
9.0 -1100.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -362.5 12.0
22.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -34.8
7.0 36.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 -24.2 14.0
9.0 298.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 354.1 8.0
9.0 1796.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1765.4 12.0
20.6 Gold / min vs Avg -10.1
5.0 75.5 Gold Diff / min 3.5 10.0
5.0 1.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.0 10.0
6.0 1608.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1607.8 8.0
6.0 46.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 16.4 9.0
11.0 1910.2 GPM in wins 1943.1 7.0
5.0 350.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 339.0 7.0
9.0 1636.3 GPM in losses 1613.0 12.0
11.0 -309.8 Gold Diff per min in losses -284.1 8.0
87.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 15.3
11.0 -27.7 Win-Adjusted GPM 5.2 7.0
5.0 37.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 25.7 7.0
11.0 46.3 Dragon Control % 44.8 13.0
5.0 54.2 Herald Control % 53.8 6.0
2.0 70.0 Baron Control % 62.5 5.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
42.9 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 28.459%
2 1 26.554%
1 2 23.222%
0 2 21.765%
(Series Win): 55.013%

While it’s a bit of a strange move that appears a bit panicky, I really don’t think there’s a huge difference between Shanks and Mole on more traditional control mages but we haven’t seen a lot of Shanks outside of that sphere. Whether or not he’s worked on that well enough to have it at a good level for the LPL is going to be interesting otherwise WE are unnecessarily limiting themselves in the draft. We’ll see though I don’t want to speculate too much because we haven’t seen Shanks in a bit.

WE are a good team but they’ve had some issues and look a bit disjointed at times, especially if the game doesn’t start their way (or series). I’ve got some questions about mental toughness that I’ve been starting to monitor. Nothing actionable or anything but it’s become a common enough thread in their season that I’m starting to wonder about the in-game leadership a bit is all.

Grading them with WE only slightly better, there isn’t a huge edge on this market price by the model (~3%) but I’m going to make play on BiliBili here. They’re beginning to round into roughly the form I expected from them at the beginning of the split and WE have enough questions right now that I’m having a hard time talking myself out of a BLG wager.

 

My Picks:               

Moneyline: BLG +143 (1 unit)

Map Spread: BLG -1.5 maps @ +402 (0.5 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ +103 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 UNDER 23.5 @ +111 (1 unit)

 


 

TOP Esports -123 (-1.5 maps @ +246 , +1.5 @ -370)

vs

Royal Never Give Up -103 (+1.5 maps @ -333, -1.5 @ +265)

 

Map Moneyline: TOP -110 / RNG -115

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -112 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -116 / +0.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -143 / under +110)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -200 / +155 (map), -271 / +204 (series), +130 / -165 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: TOP series moneyline and -1.5 maps

Starters:

TOP – Qingtian, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Zhuo

RNG – Xiaohu, Wei, Cryin, GALA, Ming

League Rank TOP Tale of the Tape Royal Never GU League Rank
15.0 -746.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -192.5 11.0
11.0 -134.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -85.0 10.0
11.0 168.7 Gold Diff @ 20 min -375.0 14.0
7.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 41.4
9.0 -7.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -27.5 3.0
6.0 388.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 130.0 11.0
4.0 1818.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1804.6 7.0
43.3 Gold / min vs Avg 29.9
4.0 128.3 Gold Diff / min -66.4 12.0
4.0 1.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.8 12.0
7.0 1608.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1600.8 9.0
1.0 88.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -10.7 10.0
5.0 1961.7 GPM in wins 1956.8 6.0
3.0 367.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 293.3 11.0
7.0 1638.5 GPM in losses 1703.1 2.0
1.0 -170.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -306.2 9.0
143.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -50.9
5.0 23.8 Win-Adjusted GPM 18.9 6.0
3.0 59.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -14.0 11.0
4.0 55.6 Dragon Control % 39.5 15.0
9.0 50.0 Herald Control % 50.0 9.0
6.0 61.5 Baron Control % 28.6 15.0
5.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
100.0 % of wins as Quality 75.0

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 40.641%
2 1 29.464%
1 2 16.754%
0 2 13.141%
(Series Win): 70.105%

This is a weird one to look at.

The thing to keep in mind with RNG is that their numbers, even blended with last splits and MSI, are surprisingly poor looking because they’ve started with a lot more losses than most people thought they would. Other than a shellacking of Rogue Warriors, RNG haven’t won a series yet this season and have only played two competitive games in that span (their two wins). It’s fair to question their current form but keep in mind that OMG and LNG are much improved from last season so those might not be quite as “embarrassing” a loss as people would think looking from the outside.

TOP have been shadows of their former selves as well. They played a close series to a 2-0 win against LGD but frankly they should have lost at least the second game and arguably the first. It took a colossal throw of a 6000+ gold lead in game two for TOP to turn this one around. They dropped a series to a very good RareAtom team that is in good form at the moment, their other loss was to JDG in week one.

This is a very challenging spot because I’m not entirely sure exactly who EITHER of these teams are based on what we’ve seen so far this season. Your handicap on this series boils down to just how much of a return to form you think you see from RNG but even then you could make the same sort of argument for TOP Esports in some ways. RNG are still doing a lot of the things that make them what they were in Spring and at MSI but there’s just something off about the big picture.

RNG are the better team in the underlying performance metrics that really matter like kill agnostic differential, win-adjusted economy, and overall objective control but even then not by much in some. It feels almost like a must-bet on RNG here given the overall season we’ve had but I actually can’t bring myself to do it because I actually think TOP should continue to improve as well. This could go either way. If I had to bet this it’d be RNG but I’m passing.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

LCK Summer 2021

Week Four – Day One

 

LCK Power Ratings through three weeks

After Week 3
Team Power # Rank
GEG 1.210761649 1
AF 0.7955864656 2
T1 0.4514276293 3
BRO 0.4343133435 4
DWG 0.2831806674 5
LSB 0.1438508826 6
KT -0.01098547312 7
NS -0.3619512859 8
HLE -1.36218744 9
DRX -1.583996438 10

 


 

T1 -250 (-1.5 maps @ +126, +1.5 @ -1000)

vs

KT Rolster +205 (+1.5 maps @ -161, -1.5 @ +548)

 

Map Moneyline: T1 -217 / KT +168

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -122 / under -106)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -118 / +5.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 8.5

Time Total: OTB

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -162 / +127 (map), -188 / +157 (series), +166 / -215 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: KT Rolster series moneyline and +1.5 maps

 

League Rank T1 Tale of the Tape KT League Rank
5.0 261.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min 483.8 2.0
2.0 679.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -55.8 7.0
5.0 515.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -614.8 7.0
31.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 9.9
2.0 28.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 20.9 5.0
2.0 240.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -14.7 6.0
2.0 1825.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1774.2 5.0
62.2 Gold / min vs Avg 10.6
2.0 99.9 Gold Diff / min 18.1 6.0
2.0 1.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.2 6.0
3.0 1652.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1590.1 8.0
5.0 60.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -0.9 4.0
4.0 1922.9 GPM in wins 1957.8 1.0
4.0 326.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 355.9 2.0
1.0 1712.6 GPM in losses 1590.7 7.0
1.0 -164.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -319.8 8.0
102.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 20.4
4.0 17.2 Win-Adjusted GPM 52.0 1.0
4.0 36.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 65.6 2.0
6.0 49.3 Dragon Control % 48.5 7.0
6.0 44.0 Herald Control % 48.4 5.0
3.0 63.6 Baron Control % 52.9 5.0
4.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
57.1 % of wins as Quality 87.5

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 34.671%
2 1 28.512%
1 2 19.910%
0 2 16.907%
(Series Win): 63.183%

 

“The Telecom War” has lost a bit of its luster in recent years but these two teams have had some real classics over the years and generally play each other pretty close. That hasn’t been the case over the past two seasons but I think this new look KT Rolster we’ve seen in Summer is maybe the best iteration of these team we’ve seen in that time frame. T1 have had a few bizarre series this season that are eating into their season long totals but have, for the most part, looked like the second best team in the LCK.

The question here is how much better you think T1 actually is. At first glance this number looks fairly close to what I’d imagine is a fair price but despite the model liking KT Rolster here, I think a look at the adjusted metrics shows you just how much stronger a team T1 are from an economic standpoint. KT Rolster’s objective control is really what’s boosting their outlook.

KT Rolster were able to take games off of DWG (2-0), Gen.G (1-2), and Afreeca (1-2) so far this season which makes me think they’re live to be competitive in this series but they’re also a reasonable candidate for a tiny amount of regression which makes this tricky.

The real prize here is the kill total over. More than 82% of games for both combined this season have gone over 21.5 and more than 72% have gone over 22.5. The implied prices are 51.5% and 54.9%. My kill total projection for this series is 24.848 kills as well.

My Picks:

Map Spread: KT +1.5 maps @ -161 (1.61 units)

Moneyline: KT +205 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: KT -1.5 maps @ +548 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 @ -122 (1.83 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 22.5 @ -130 (1.95 units)

 

 

 


 

Gen.G -500 (-1.5 maps @ -141, +1.5 @ -3333)

vs

Fredit Brion +374 (+1.5 maps @ +110, -1.5 @ +1002)

 

Map Moneyline: GEG -385 / BRO +273

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -115 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -119 / +7.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 6.5

Time Total: OTB

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -179 / +138 (map), -217 / +178 (series), +148 / -193 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Brion +1.5 maps and series moneyline

League Rank GEG Tale of the Tape BRO League Rank
3.0 401.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min 288.5 4.0
1.0 1525.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min 578.5 3.0
1.0 1851.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min 285.6 4.0
36.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -21.7
1.0 55.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 6.6 7.0
1.0 534.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 51.8 7.0
1.0 1864.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1751.4 7.0
101.1 Gold / min vs Avg -12.2
1.0 191.6 Gold Diff / min 31.9 5.0
1.0 2.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.4 5.0
1.0 1661.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1614.3 4.0
1.0 102.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 8.2 6.0
2.0 1933.1 GPM in wins 1924.7 3.0
6.0 310.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 337.0 3.0
2.0 1659.5 GPM in losses 1553.3 10.0
2.0 -165.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -316.7 6.0
193.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 34.3
2.0 27.3 Win-Adjusted GPM 19.0 3.0
6.0 20.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 46.7 3.0
2.0 60.8 Dragon Control % 69.0 1.0
7.0 43.8 Herald Control % 43.3 8.0
2.0 65.2 Baron Control % 47.1 7.0
7.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
58.3 % of wins as Quality 25.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 37.238%
2 1 29.029%
1 2 18.541%
0 2 15.192%
(Series Win): 66.267%

Brion continue to improve and in a similar way to KT Rolster look like a completely different team so far in Summer. Their early game scripts and execution have been outstanding. While they’ve had some questionable decisions in transition at times, the fact that they’re able to jump out to leads as frequently as they do with the individual talent on this team somewhat lacking shows just how well the coaching staff has done. Speaking of that, this is Edgar’s former team. Maybe he’ll have some insight on how to beat them.

Gen.G have been the best team in the LCK by the numbers and it hasn’t been particularly close this season. This isn’t a DAMWON 2020 level domination but for all intents and purposes they’ve been the clear top team. They lead almost across the board in the economy metrics both raw and adjusted and have the second highest overall objective control score in the league as well.

With all of this in mind, I think this is just a bit too heavy handed on the favorites especially for how well Brion have been playing of late. This is sort of a classic let down spot, first match of the week, Gen.G flying high, Brion climbing the standings, etc. The counter point to this is that Brion lost to Afreeca (1-2), T1 (0-2) and Hanwha (1-2) before they beat both DAMWON and Nongshim in their most recent two. You could also point to a pretty dramatic individual player advantage across the board.

That’s not really enough to sway me. Gen.G are a very good team but they’re far from immaculate and this is the kind of number that demands a perfect favorite. Give me the dogs.

My Picks:

Map Spread: Brion +1.5 maps @ +110 (1.5 units)

Moneyline: Brion +375 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: Brion -1.5 maps @ +1002 (0.25 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

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