Tuesday, June 22nd Recap

 

LNG Esports vs ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming (Net: +2.95 units)

TT almost pulled the upset win here and honestly they should have had game three but bungled it multiple times to create this rollercoaster ride before eventually losing it.

 

RareAtom vs TOP Esports (Net: +0.84 units)

Dramatic game three here as well. RA had cracked the base earlier in the game but couldn’t finish, TOP ended up bringing it back and looked like they were going to end the game with a 5000+ gold lead but decided to back off. RA decisively anticipated a TOP baron play, booked it into TOP’s bottom side jungle, made a pick on Xin Zhao and then Ryze ulted into the base and took the inhib and the exposed nexus for the win.

 

 

I’ve got a really busy week ahead of me with some travel and a wedding so I’ll be getting ahead as much as I can on my work for the week.

 

LPL Net Total: +3.79 units

 

Daily Net Total: +3.79 units

 


 

LPL Summer 2021

Week Three – Day Three

 

 

Victory Five +963 (+1.5 maps @ +231, -1.5 @ +2400)

vs

JD Gaming -5000 (-1.5 maps @ -333)

 

Map Moneyline: V5 +665 / JDG -1667

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -106 / under -127)

Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -116 / -10.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 18.5

Time Total: 29:00 (over +130 / under -179)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +343 / -560 (map), +667 / -1687 (series), +165 / -227 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: V5 map moneylines

Starters:

V5 – Invincible, Pzx, Uniboy, Kepler, ZYF

JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Lpc, LvMao

JDG Tale of the Tape Victory Five
660.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -3570.8
711.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1871.1
887.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -463.8
57.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -166.4
54.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -317.5
346.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -60.8
1814.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1512.2
37.2 Gold / min vs Avg -265.0
58.4 Gold Diff / min -463.8
0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -6.6
1591.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1441.6
27.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -252.9
1937.9 GPM in wins
277.0 Gold Diff per min in wins
1629.0 GPM in losses 1512.2
-269.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -463.8
66.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -455.9
56.5 Dragon Control % 26.1
31.6 Herald Control % 25.0
71.4 Baron Control % 0.0

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 65.855%
2 1 24.826%
1 2 5.766%
0 2 3.553%
(Series Win): 90.681%

UPDATE: Lpc is going to be filling in for LokeN for JDG. Ultimately I don’t think this changes the handicap on this game very much. Lpc is a strong performer in the LDL. If anything this could give a slight boost to our V5 position.

It has not been a great start for the new look Victory Five at all. I can’t say I’m surprised. Turns out, when you get rid of four of your entire lineup including four pretty decent players by LPL standards, you’re going to struggle.

Now, in the defense of Victory Five, they have faced three strong teams in LNG, WE, and RareAtom for their first three matches and they’ve been completely blown out of the water. JDG will offer a similar challenge in terms of overall ability but I think of these teams JDG surprisingly have the most questions, at least to me. They still don’t seem to have a firm grasp on what is good in this metagame although it was nice seeing Zoom pick up Gwen, I was getting a little concerned there.

JDG should smash this series but the number is just way too big this early on. Hold your nose and take the underdogs. In this case better value on the map moneylines. If you want to play the favorites I’d do so through the tower total under.

 

My Picks:

Map Moneyline: Map 1 V5 +665 (0.5 units)

Map Moneyline: Map 2 V5 +665 (0.5 units)

 

 


 

 

FunPlus Phoenix -167 (-1.5 maps @ +181, +1.5 @ -588)

vs

Team WE +125 (+1.5 maps @ -250, -1.5 @ +358)

 

 

Map Moneyline: FPX -159 / WE +120

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -114 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -119 / +4.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -118 / under -114)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  —

Model Suggested Play:

Starters:

FPX – Nuguri, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp

WE – Breathe, Beishang, Mole, Elk, Missing

FunPlus Tale of the Tape WE
480 Gold Diff @ 10 min 485.7
1810 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1642.9
2690 Gold Diff @ 20 min 3000
94.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 53.1
134.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 150.0
232.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 508.3
1919.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1891.9
142.7 Gold / min vs Avg 114.7
188.4 Gold Diff / min 283.4
2.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 4.1
1683.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1658.1
129.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 168.8
2000.7 GPM in wins 1923.1
379.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 378.6
1731.1 GPM in losses 1704.6
-258.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -288.0
196.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 291.3
53.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -24.0
54.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 52.8
72.1 Dragon Control % 62.5
50.0 Herald Control % 78.6
53.8 Baron Control % 85.7
5.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
71.4 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 32.134%
1 2 27.837%
2 1 21.269%
2 0 18.760%
(Series Win): 40.029%

FunPlus’ numbers, particularly their economy metrics look slightly better overall primarily due to the strength of competition they’ve faced so far with their only real challenge being a 1-2 loss to LNG through four matches. Their other opponents were TT, UltraPrime, and Rogue Warriors. If you look at the win-adjusted and kill-agnostic numbers you can still see that FunPlus are an extraordinarily consistent, world-class team in terms of their overall economy. They’re consistent as hell despite playing some really bizarre stuff with Doinb sometimes. Just speaks to the quality of the individual players on this squad.

WE have also only had one challenging series thus far, their opening match against Suning. The other matchups were TT and Victroy Five. Nitpicking you could say FPX have still had the stronger overall performance metrics but this early on you don’t want to rely too much on that.

The model likes WE more than I do because they have the highest grade in the league in overall objective control thanks to their 80+% baron control rate which is amplifying this small sample size.

The Spring numbers would have made this a -132 / +103 series with FPX as the favorites. I really have no idea where this number is coming from. Sure, you could make the case that FPX are a much stronger overall team and if you consider that one of Nuguri’s worst series in the past 18 months is included in this opening there’s a case that it’s even stronger for FPX but not by this much.

I think FPX are the better team personally but this number should be closer to even money.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Team WE +125 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ +358 (0.5 units)

 


 

LCK Summer

Week Three – Day One

 

Before diving into Wednesday’s LCK slate I wanted to share some bigger picture trend data for the LCK through two weeks.

 

LCK Kill Spread Winner? Kill Total Winner? Time Total Winner? FAV Team Total UND Team Total Dragons 4.5 Winner? Towers 11.5 Winner?
Over / Fav 24 21 24 22 27 26 20
Under / Dog 26 29 26 28 23 23 29
Average 5.40 23.80 32.15 13.90 9.30
Total Games
50

 

Without any Spring priors included, just looking at Summer data so far the model power rankings are as follows:

LCK Summer – First Two Weeks
Team Power # Rank
GEG 1.189541216 1
AF 0.9747548668 2
T1 0.4803080107 3
LSB 0.1336384639 4
DWG 0.0621877836 5
NS -0.06246451139 6
KT -0.1563727202 7
BRO -0.3091591702 8
HLE -0.8448087168 9
DRX -1.467625222 10

 

We don’t have that much data quite yet, in the grand scheme of things, and for the purposes of handicapping I’m still including some weight on Spring priors into my numbers but we’ll be shifting more weight toward the Summer data so far and keeping a close eye on where we think teams are due for regression, positive or negative.

Regarding derivatives such as kills, time totals, neutrals, etc. I’ll be starting to factor in some of what we’ve seen so far but I still prefer to wait on the data to really give us a more accurate picture. I’ll pick my spots where it’s obvious but I was able to grind out a big edge even toward the end of last season on kills and neutrals by attacking script/style along with the numbers so I don’t think those will be “so sharp by then” that we lose much value. Willing to wait.

 


Hanwha Life Esports -137 (-1.5 maps @ +219, +1.5 @ -455)

vs

Afreeca Freecs +103 (+1.5 maps @ -312, -1.5 @ +298)

 

Map Moneyline: HLE -132 / AF +100

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -127 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -120 / +1.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -115 / under -118)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  —

Model Suggested Play:

HLE Tale of the Tape AF
-161.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min 1265.3
-99.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min 385.9
-231.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 91.5
-26.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 30.1
-48.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 71.8
-421.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 196.3
1689.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1803.2
-69.1 Gold / min vs Avg 44.2
-150.5 Gold Diff / min 96.3
-2.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.4
1552.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1647.2
-79.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 66.8
1873.8 GPM in wins 1916.4
327.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 339.1
1637.3 GPM in losses 1633.3
-287.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -268.0
-147.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 98.9
-23.1 Win-Adjusted GPM 19.6
46.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 58.4
30.0 Dragon Control % 54.9
58.8 Herald Control % 65.0
30.0 Baron Control % 58.3
1.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 83.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

During Spring, the model would have made this series a 54-46% series in favor of Hanwha Life which may come as a surprise to some given Afreeca’s finish but both teams were outliers to some extent in terms of results vs performance. Hanwha have had a very difficult schedule to start the season with T1 and Gen.G followed by a surging Sandbox team. Their most recent match was finally a bit of a break in Fredit Brion but even they have looked much improved from their Spring iteration. Hanwha defeated Brion 2-1 but have not won a game otherwise.

It’s safe to say that Hanwha have always had consistency issues but they do this to themselves with their fast and loose approach to the game. It was a concern that we had with them last season and it remains so here in Summer but with the rest of the league improving they’re going to be punished more often than they were in Spring.

Afreeca have been “overperforming” a lot of people’s expectations but their actual performance metrics aren’t that much different than they were in the Spring, they’re just now picking up the wins instead of shooting themselves in the foot every game.

Afreeca are the play here. Hanwha weren’t actually that much better of a team than they were in the Spring split despite the finish in the standings. Better? Sure, but they weren’t leaps and bounds better than the bottom of the table like you’d think just looking at the end result. This is fairly close to a 50/50 and with the form of these teams trending in opposite directions I’ll back the upward trajectory of Afreeca. The map one tower total under is just a system play. Price is egregious relative to market for similar matchups and given the frequency charts for these teams it’s actually just a massive value regardless in this contest.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Afreeca +103 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +298 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -132 (1.32 units)

 


 

 

DAMWON Kia Gaming -1429 (-1.5 maps @ -238)

vs

Fredit Brion +640 (+1.5 maps @ +173, -1.5 @ +1600)

 

 

Map Moneyline: DWG -833 / BRO +461

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -118 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -125 / +7.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -143 / under +105)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  —

Model Suggested Play:

DWG Tale of the Tape BRO
-615.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min 2.6
-335.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -508.0
-918.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -722.9
-14.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -19.9
-19.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -21.3
57.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -187.3
1788.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1701.3
29.4 Gold / min vs Avg -57.7
57.3 Gold Diff / min -69.8
0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.1
1619.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1584.3
48.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -62.6
1894.8 GPM in wins 1920.1
250.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 311.8
1575.4 GPM in losses 1555.4
-330.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -324.2
59.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -67.2
-2.0 Win-Adjusted GPM 23.3
-29.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 31.1
59.5 Dragon Control % 61.7
37.5 Herald Control % 50.0
76.9 Baron Control % 41.7
4.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 0.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Just a quick note regarding the roster shuffling going on on DAMWON right now. I’m not entirely sure if this was a straight up benching, a health issue, time for a break/burnout, or what but the individual talent on this team is high enough that it doesn’t have as big an effect on things as you’d think as we saw against Afreeca. I would anticipate that we see Ghost back in the lineup but we’ll have to wait until right before game time to find out so keep your eyes peeled on social media, particularly for DFS purposes for those that play.

Just about any model is going to flag Brion as a play here and for good reason. They’ve looked much better this Summer and DAMWON have faltered at times. The thing is, to me at least, I don’t see DAMWON’s performance continuing at this level. They quite literally have not performed this poorly ever, even including their rookie lineup’s first year in the LCK. I will say, however, that ShowMaker feels like he’s hard carrying this team at the moment much like Chovy carried Hanwha last season and that, other than Khan, he hasn’t had a whole lot of help.

There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about what’s going on with DAMWON right now but Brion, though much improved, haven’t really impressed me big picture. Either hold your nose and back the dogs here or just pass. I’m staying away unless something drastic happens to this line in the next 24 hours.

 

My Picks:

no wagers

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply