Tuesday, June 15th Recap
Rogue Warriors vs UltraPrime (Net: +0.5 units)
UltraPrime played directly into the solo queue stylings of Rogue Warriors in game one and were promptly punished for it going a little too overboard. They completely controlled the next two games but took their time as they have Lulu+Kog’maw in game two and Senna+Tahm Kench in game two. No need to rush things.
The only games this Rogue Warriors team is going to win are the ones where their opponent beat themselves and I’m not even sure they’ll get that many of those either without some drastic improvement. UltraPrime have been a tough team to evaluate because they look really good at time and completely undisciplined others. Need to see more of this team but I think they could be decent.
LNG Esports vs JD Gaming (Net : -5.01 units)
A lot of people didn’t like the drafts for JDG in this series but I think, as cliché as it sounds, that this came more down to sloppy play in general. I’m a little short on time today to go into these specifically here but I might break things down in a film review session sometime this week if I get the time to. Essentially just lazy setup and overestimation of their own positions of power. I’m not knocking JDG down for this it just looked like a bad day from them in combination with an exceptional performance by Icon, maybe the best series of his career out of nowhere. Good series by LNG.
LPL Total: -4.51 units
Daily Net Total: -4.51 units
Bloodbath continues but it’s a long season. This patch is brutal.
A quick note, given that the data is now calcifying a bit, I’ll be back to posting more of that material later this week and next week including betting trends, objective, time, and kill projections, and market evaluations. It’ll get back to looking more like last seasons’ posts shortly.
LPL Summer 2021
Week Two – Day Three
Team WE -3333 (-1.5 maps @ -323)
Victory Five +973 (+1.5 maps @ +237, -1.5 @ +2300)
Map Moneyline: -1250 / +623
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -115 / under -112)
Kill Spread: -11.5 @ -109 / +11.5 @ -119
Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 5.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +139 / under -182)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -175 / +134 (map), -219 / +165 (series), +153 / -198 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)*
Model Suggested Play: V5 +1.5 maps **
WE – Breathe, Beishang, Mole, Elk, Missing
V5 – Invincible, Pzx, Uniboy, Kepler, ZYF
** The model isn’t accounting for the drastic changes to V5’s lineup this offseason, just operating off of priors.
With this taken into account it becomes a question about whether or not the NEW V5 lineup is worth taking a shot at in this spot. It’s really easy to overreact to a single series, especially when it’s against a better team. LNG might not be the most impressive team, their win vs JDG this morning withstanding, but they do completely smash the bottom tier teams so in a way we shouldn’t be at all surprised or really take that much from that result for Victory Five. That said, WE are a top nine (probably better) team and we know how that has gone in general in the LPL in 2021.
I’m not a huge fan of this V5 roster at all. I’m sticking mostly to my pre-season read on that. It was thrown together last minute, the younger talent is, Invincible aside, not exactly highly touted prospects. Uniboy was unimpressive last season. However, the game is extremely volatile right now and certain power picks can just take over games themselves (Gwen, Akali, etc.). It’s tough to really want to back.
Underdogs have covered the map spread in ten out of eighteen series so far and won outright in six of those (Invictus, LNG, WE, JDG, OMG, LNG). Not all of these were elite teams against other elite teams either. My gut tells me WE smash here and not to be scared off of the favorites that have completely dominated in the LPL all year long just because we’ve had a few weird situations this week.
Eating the chalk like a full on square.
Map Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ -323 (3.23 units)
BiliBili Gaming -169 (-1.5 maps @ +176, +1.5 maps @ -714)
LGD Gaming +137 (+1.5 maps @ -250, -1.5 @ +442)
Map Moneyline: BLG -182 / LGD +141
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -116 / +4.5 @ -111
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -114 / under -114)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -138 / +108 (map), -212 / +170 (series), +148 / -206 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: none
BLG – Biubiu, Weiwei, Zeka, Aiming, ppgod
LGD – Garvey, Shad0w, Xiye, Kramer, Mark
If you gave me this line last season I would have jumped all over BiliBili without hesitation but obviously there has been a lot of roster changes with both of these teams. In a lot of ways I think these two have been two of the trickiest handicaps to open the season. I’m optimistic about both rosters and thus far they’ve shown some good and some bad. A lot of unknowns here besides the players themselves which are known quantities.
Personally I like the BLG roster a bit more and I think by the end of the season, if they can perform at say the average expectation for these players and as a team, I think they should probably be your 10th playoff team over LNG but it’s tough to envision that after this morning for a lot of people. Either way, I think these two teams and LNG are the three “middle of the pack” representatives that the LPL sorely lacked last season. Hopefully another one joins them but it’s already better than last year.
There isn’t really enough of an edge either way for me in this one. If I had to back one of them it’d be LGD just because I think this is probably slightly closer to 50/50 than the model thinks and you’re getting a decent plus number but there’s not really enough conviction either way to back a side in this one for me. There are enough unknowns here in terms of how the teams are going to operate that I’m staying away from all the derivative markets as well.
LCK Summer 2021
Week Two – Day One
DRX +130 (+1.5 maps @ -250, -1.5 @ +335)
Nongshim RedForce -169 (-1.5 maps @ +189, +1.5 @ -500)
Map Moneyline: DRX +117 / NS -149
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -111 / -2.5 @ -116
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 12.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -114 / under -114)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +120 / -153 (map), +138 / -180 (series), -233 / +178 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: none
This is another interesting match because of certain unknowns albeit of a different complexion than the BLG/LGD series. DRX were our top regression candidates based on performance last season which, if you’ve been reading this blog, is no surprise whatsoever. Nongshim had an improving performance over the course of the season and even managed to sneak into playoffs despite their bevy of mid lane woes.
Gori has looked pretty good from what we’ve seen but even in this extremely small sample size he’s made more positive impacts than almost every game of Bay’s season (I hate to keep ripping on the guy but it was rough…). There are also questions regarding Solka and whether or not he’ll actually play this series or not. I couldn’t find a firm source on the reason for his benching although I’d assume it was personal or health related and that he starts this series again.
DRX are still playing in a similar way to what we saw last season, at least from what we’ve seen thus far (again small sample). If that’s the case, I don’t think late game scaling is really the wheelhouse you want to be in right now unless it’s around Gwen or Kogmaw. There’s just too many picks that can completely steamroll over games with a lead right now especially with all of the volatile melee solo lane matchups currently.
I like the favorites to win this matchup and generally prefer Nongshim’s prospects in the near and middle term over DRX but I’m also open to the possibility that we haven’t seen all of DRX’s advances yet and they could have more at their disposal than we’ve seen so far. This line is pretty close to where I’d make this so I’m just going to pass but lean toward the favorites.
KT Rolster +324 (+1.5 maps @ -106, -1.5 @ +811)
Gen.G -476 (-1.5 maps @ -119, +1.5 maps @ -2000)
Map Moneyline: +241 / -333
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -111 / under -116)
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -119 / -7.5 @ -109
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -120 / under -108)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +292 / -418 (map), +612 / -1179 (series), +151 / -195 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -195
Game one between DAMWON and KT Rolster on Sunday was some incredibly high level League of Legends. Both teams were unbelievably decisive with the teleports and map plays, both baited and set up situations masterfully and the individual play within these skirmishes was insane. Great punishes by both sides. Those that know me know that more than any league or team I love extremely high level LOL more than anything else and this game was sick.
If we see this kind of performance from KT Rolster, who seemed improved in their previous series as well, then I think we could be potentially turning over a new leaf. This is more along the lines of what I expected from them in Spring, a competitive, young, very talented roster but we didn’t see the young kids get a chance until the season was already done. Props to Harp who we haven’t seen a lot of recently, he was excellent in this series.
My concern here is that this metagame is just so good for Gen.G. I think this line is more or less right on the money. I think Gen.G are deserving favorites and agree with the model’s roughly 6% edge on the market price here but I’m willing to respect this surging KT Rolster lineup enough to just play the Gen.G moneyline here. We’ve seen this team lay eggs from time to time but trying to predict when that happens is guesswork. Should be a great series if we can see KT continue to perform at this level. Part of this wager is that I’m expecting a bit of a pull back. Keep in mind the market reaction to an upset win is almost always an overreaction as well.
Moneyline: Gen.G -476 (4.76 units)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)