Tuesday, July 27th Recap

 

TOP Esports vs Invictus Gaming (Net: +7.44 units)

Suning vs Victory Five (Net: +1.52 units, -0.48 + 2.0 live)

Rogue Warriors vs LNG Esports (Net: +/- 0 units)

 

LPL Net Total: +8.96 units

 

Daily Net Total: +8.96 units

 

Another nice day on a nice underdog as well as the live play on LNG map 3 under 4.5 dragons which ended up 28 cents better than the pre-series price.

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Eight – Day Three

 

 

 

 

JD Gaming -385 (-1.5 maps @ -111, +1.5 @ -1429)

vs

OMG +279 (+1.5 maps @ -115, -1.5 @ +695)

 

Map Moneyline: JDG -286 / OMG +214

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -123 / +6.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -101 / under -128)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -174 / +135 (map), -216 / +167 (series), +152 / -198 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: OMG +1.5 maps, series moneyline, and -1.5 maps (strong)

Starters:

JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao

OMG – New, AKi, Creme, Able, COLD

Trends
JDG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) OMG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 4 -949 Matches as Underdogs 3 6 +384
Against Map Spread 4 5 -34 Against Map Spread 4 5 -2
Against Kill Spread 8 13 6.7 Against Kill Spread 10 12 +7
Kill Totals 11 10 26.28 Kill Totals 12 10 25.39
Team Kill Totals 10 11 15.94 Team Kill Totals 12 10 9.17
Game Time Totals 10 11 30.2 Game Time Totals 10 12 30.22
Dragons over 4.5 12 9 Dragons over 4.5 6 16
Towers over 11.5 10 11 Towers over 11.5 6 16

 

 

League Rank JDG Tale of the Tape OMG League Rank
9 -2.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -644.0 16
10 -445.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -693.6 12
11 -662.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1237.5 12
33.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -36.3
5 0.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -64.4 14
9 312.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -106.4 15
5 1836.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1737.0 13
48.2 Gold / min vs Avg -50.9
10 41.6 Gold Diff / min -106.4 13
10 0.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.4 13
9 1620.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1552.9 14
9 23.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -73.4 13
6 1982.6 GPM in wins 1894.4 15
11 326.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 250.3 15
5 1658.3 GPM in losses 1589.5 15
8 -303.8 Gold Diff per min in losses -440.8 17
47.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -100.5
6 31.5 Win-Adjusted GPM -56.8 15
11 1.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -74.2 15
6 54.3 Dragon Control % 51.6 9
17 32.8 Herald Control % 45.9 12
6 56.1 Baron Control % 51.4 12
9.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
52.9 % of wins as Quality 40.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 36.566%
2 1 28.909%
1 2 18.898%
0 2 15.626%
(Series Win): 65.475%

 

I’m very bearish on OMG but if you’re going to play a side in this matchup it’s pretty tough to justify a position on JDG with how barbaric their macro is sometimes. This team just brute forces everything and if it works cool, if it doesn’t their individual players end up having to play their way out of a paper bag. This happens way too often but I digress… read any of my previous JDG writeups to hear about my frustrations with this team.

OMG aren’t good but JDG are tremendously overrated by the market and almost always are. It’s tough for most people to imagine this roster losing this match but their play has simply not been very good this season. They’re almost literally “the league average” in my model effectively at a +/- 0 rating. Admittedly this is significantly better than OMG but the point I’m trying to drive home here is that you SHOULD NOT TRUST THIS JDG TEAM.

The hilarious part about this match is that it’s currently a matchup between 10th and 11th place. A win here would actually move OMG into 10th place. You should expect OMG to throw the kitchen sink at this series making them a dangerous underdog.

To me this is OMG or bust. Just so people are aware, OMG are a pretty big gap down in quality from JDG but the math just doesn’t work out here. JDG are way too heavily favored and would need to be just about 10% better than they have performed in Summer to warrant this price.

I like the dogs outright and the OMG first herald at plus money. JDG have only a 38.71% first herald rate this season to OMG’s 48.39%. First drag and first blood aren’t bad looks for either as OMG have roughly the same % in these as JDG and you’re getting plus money.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -115 (1.15 units)

Moneyline: OMG +279 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +695 (0.1 units)

Prop: Map 1 OMG first herald @ +132 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 OMG first herald @ +132 (1 unit)

 


BiliBili Gaming +111 (+1.5 maps @ -294, -1.5 @ +268)

vs

Invictus Gaming -145 (-1.5 maps @ +221, +1.5 @ -370)

 

Map Moneyline: BLG -102 / IG -125

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -127 / under -103)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -110 / -0.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -112 / under -115)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +125 / -161 (map), +147 / -195 (series), -218 / +169 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Invictus moneyline and -1.5 maps (light)

Starters:

BLG – Biubiu, Weiwei, Zeka, Aiming, ppgod

IG – TheShy, XUN, Rookie, Wink, Lucas

Trends
IG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) BLG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 2 2 -707 Matches as Underdogs 2 5 +218
Against Map Spread 2 2 -167 Against Map Spread 5 2 -139
Against Kill Spread 2 8 8.8 Against Kill Spread 8 10 +7
Kill Totals 5 5 25.75 Kill Totals 9 9 25.50
Team Kill Totals 4 6 16.50 Team Kill Totals 9 9 9.79
Game Time Totals 6 4 29.8 Game Time Totals 11 7 31.00
Dragons over 4.5 4 6 Dragons over 4.5 7 11
Towers over 11.5 4 6 Towers over 11.5 10 8

 

League Rank Invictus Tale of the Tape BiliBili League Rank
6 126.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -454.7 14
6 438.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min -809.4 13
6 -425.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1200.0 10
10.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 1.4
8 1.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 17.8 9
2 444.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 399.9 6
8 1820.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1823.1 7
32.5 Gold / min vs Avg 35.2
11 20.3 Gold Diff / min 63.6 8
11 0.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.9 8
7 1624.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1630.6 4
11 21.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 50.6 6
3 1992.4 GPM in wins 1980.9 7
9 338.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 369.3 3
3 1661.6 GPM in losses 1620.2 11
3 -273.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -329.5 12
26.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 69.5
3 41.3 Win-Adjusted GPM 29.8 7
9 14.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 44.8 3
4 55.9 Dragon Control % 52.1 8
1 66.0 Herald Control % 48.4 9
5 59.4 Baron Control % 64.9 1
4.0 Quality Wins? 13.0
33.3 % of wins as Quality 72.2

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 34.331%
2 1 28.431%
1 2 20.092%
0 2 17.145%
(Series Win): 62.763%

The funny thing about this is that both of these teams are consistently undervalued by the market compared to the model price. When you get two underrated teams it can sometimes look odd that one is a reasonable favorite because you’re not used to seeing the favorites reasonable against either of them.

BiliBili have quietly put together a very good season and are peaking at the right time as we rev up to playoffs. Invictus had been struggling despite having performance metrics that far exceeded their results. This morning they completely smashed TOP in game one and managed to stabilize and win game two.

I do think Invictus is the better team and this is a surprisingly cheap price, even for a team that took money after a huge win this morning but I’m staying away from sides in this one. Invictus are in the weird position of having to play back-to-back days which doesn’t normally happen. It’s tough to tell if this would be the very typical Invictus let down spot or if they ride the momentum. BiliBili only have this morning to prepare so I wouldn’t put too much stock into it, just thought it was worth mentioning.

I have two prop plays that I like quite a bit in this series.

UNDER 4.5 dragons is showing a substantial edge on price. The time total is a slight edge on the under 31 which somewhat backs this up especially given current trends regarding slower dragon prioritization which helps. Averaging the two teams together, only 33.19% of games go over 4.5 dragons (32 and 34.375%) and the two average 4.23 dragons per game averaged together.

I also like Invictus first herald. At a 60% first herald rate to BLG’s 43.75%, the -108 price is a nice advantaged play.

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -125 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -125 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 Invictus first herald @ -108 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Invictus first herald @ -108 (1 unit)


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

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