Tuesday, July 20th Recap

 

LGD Gaming vs Team WE (Net: +1.73 units)

JD Gaming vs BiliBili Gaming (Net: +4.23 units)

 

LPL Net Total: +5.96 units

 

Daily Net Total: +5.96 units

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Seven – Day Three

 

 

LNG Esports +182 (+1.5 maps @ -179, -1.5 @ +479)

vs

Suning Gaming -238 (-1.5 maps @ +139, +1.5 @ -769)

 

Map Moneyline: LNG +156 / SN -200

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -109 / -4.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -152 / under +116)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -103 / -122 (map), +101 / -128 (series), -314 / +231 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: LNG series moneyline

Starters:

LNG – Ale, Tarzan, Icon, LP, Kedaya

SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, ON

Trends
SN as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) LNG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 3 4 -381 Matches as Underdogs 4 0 +199
Against Map Spread 3 4 +59 Against Map Spread 4 0 -189
Against Kill Spread 7 11 6.8 Against Kill Spread 10 1 +6
Kill Totals 8 10 25.36 Kill Totals 7 4 24.75
Team Kill Totals 8 10 15.07 Team Kill Totals 9 2 9.75
Game Time Totals 11 7 30.4 Game Time Totals 8 3 30.75
Dragons over 4.5 9 9 Dragons over 4.5 6 5
Towers over 11.5 8 10 Towers over 11.5 5 6

 

 

League Rank Suning Tale of the Tape LNG League Rank
9 -0.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min 130.2 6
4 1099.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -54.4 9
5 1212.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -512.5 7
0.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 4.8
11 32.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 28.8 9
6 406.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 479.6 2
9 1818.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1823.1 8
29.4 Gold / min vs Avg 33.9
10 57.3 Gold Diff / min 114.9 4
10 0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.6 4
8 1621.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1609.1 11
10 18.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 41.6 8
12 1931.0 GPM in wins 1953.5 9
14 283.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 359.4 6
3 1668.7 GPM in losses 1609.8 13
2 -243.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -285.3 6
60.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 118.0
12 -19.4 Win-Adjusted GPM 3.1 9
14 -40.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 36.4 6
7 52.7 Dragon Control % 44.4 14
8 51.8 Herald Control % 50.0 9
10 51.6 Baron Control % 54.1 7
9.0 Quality Wins? 12.0
56.3 % of wins as Quality 66.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 27.168%
2 1 26.015%
1 2 23.895%
0 2 22.922%
(Series Win): 53.183%

When you look at these teams side-by-side this is a very clear and obvious LNG wager. While LNG have come back down to earth quite a bit in recent weeks with losses to WE, UltraPrime, and RareAtom, as well as a game loss to OMG, their overall performance level hasn’t really changed much in regards to measurables. You could say a very similar thing about Suning who have had some impressive wins against JDG, TOP Esports, and RNG but losses to LGD and Rogue Warriors.

These have been two of the strangers teams over the past few weeks. Suning should absolutely be better, no question but they’ve been playing up and down to their competition. LNG are just inconsistent by nature so any given series they can look great or terrible.

I think you take the shot on LNG here mostly because the price is way out of line with overall performance levels for both teams even factoring recent matches. Both teams have issues that are exploitable, both teams haven’t really made a strong case to be favored by this much over the other.

I’ll be playing the dogs as well as the tower total OVER in this contest. these two teams are around 32% and 31%, respectively, in percentage of games over 12.5 towers vs the book price of 28.41%. This is smaller than I typically play but we’ve also seen a trend in recent weeks across the globe of slightly more towers going down per game and significantly higher percentage of games going over this total than it has all year. Adjustment hasn’t been made. This is an edge even just looking at season long totals much less that new trending data.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: LNG +182 (1 unit)

Map Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ +479 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 12.5 towers @ +252 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 12.5 towers @ +244 (1 unit)

 


 

OMG +399 (+1.5 maps @ +128, -1.5 @ +1010)

vs

FunPlus Phoenix -625 (-1.5 maps @ -167)

 

Map Moneyline: OMG +286 / FPX -400

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -104 / under -125)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -114 / -8.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -110 / under -119)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +325 / -468 (map), +610 / -1177 (series), +149 / -197 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: FunPlus series moneyline and -1.5 maps (light)

Starters:

OMG – New, AKi, Creme, Able, COLD

FPX – Nuguri, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp

Trends
FPX as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) OMG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 3 -1136 Matches as Underdogs 3 5 +382
Against Map Spread 5 5 -49 Against Map Spread 4 4 -18
Against Kill Spread 11 14 7.6 Against Kill Spread 10 10 +7
Kill Totals 16 9 26.40 Kill Totals 11 9 25.25
Team Kill Totals 14 11 16.40 Team Kill Totals 11 9 9.25
Game Time Totals 12 13 29.9 Game Time Totals 10 10 30.25
Dragons over 4.5 10 15 Dragons over 4.5 6 14
Towers over 11.5 12 13 Towers over 11.5 6 14

 

 

League Rank FunPlus Tale of the Tape OMG League Rank
2 798.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -1081.5 16
5 553.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1118.5 15
4 140.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1737.5 16
76.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -39.7
2 67.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -56.9 14
7 370.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -94.5 14
2 1903.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1740.4 13
114.7 Gold / min vs Avg -48.7
2 141.2 Gold Diff / min -94.5 13
2 2.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.3 13
1 1673.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1554.0 14
2 102.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -73.5 14
1 1995.7 GPM in wins 1894.5 16
8 348.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 231.0 15
1 1720.4 GPM in losses 1586.4 15
4 -273.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -420.1 17
144.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -91.4
1 45.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -55.9 16
8 25.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -92.0 15
1 65.8 Dragon Control % 48.1 11
7 53.7 Herald Control % 41.2 14
5 58.6 Baron Control % 50.0 11
9.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 38.5

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 63.085%
2 1 25.958%
1 2 6.724%
0 2 4.233%
(Series Win): 89.043%

It was fun while it lasted with Creme putting on hero performance after hero performance but I think this ride is probably over now. OMG were never really a good team even when they were winning, just spunky underdogs with some insane individual carry games. They benefitted a lot from the league, particularly the good teams, taking some time to figure out this wild new metagame we’ve had in Summer. Now that most teams are up to speed and used to this, OMG suddenly look way less impressive. Props to them for having the good read but they aren’t good.

I’m going heavier than the model and backing FPX in this one. However there are a handful of other plays that were flagged as large edges on the book price in this contest:

  • Kill Total OVERS: I project 27.956 kills per game in this one. Combined, the two teams average 58.33% chance of going over the 26.5 total (vs book price of 50.98%), and 65.812% going over the 25.5 kill total (book price 55.95%). There’s a chance FPX blow this out but I’ll take the bigger percentage edge on the alt over 25.5
  • OMG first blood: I’m skipping this one but 61.5% vs FPX’s 33.3% and you’re getting plus money. I think there’s a very strong chance FPX just dominate wire-to-wire but good to have the info for you.
  • FPX first tower: 74.07% vs 26.92% and book implied price of 68.05%. I like this one quite a bit also.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ -167 (1.67 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ -127 (1 unit)

(map 1 only on the kill total, price off for map 2, follows trend of lower scoring game ones on average but going against that)

Prop: Map 1 FPX first tower @ -213 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 FPX first tower @ -213 (1 unit)

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

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