Tuesday, June 13th Recap
ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming vs BiliBili Gaming (Net: +0.25 units)
LNG Esports vs Team WE (Net: +1.9 units)
Daily Net Total: +2.15 units
LPL Summer 2021
Week Six – Day Three
OMG -192 (-1.5 maps @ +166, +1.5 @ -625)
vs
UltraPrime +147 (+1.5 maps @ -217, -1.5 @ +402)
Map Moneyline: OMG -167 / UP +129
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -114 / under -114)
Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -118 / +4.5 @ -111
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 11.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over -143 / under +110)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +119 / -154 (map), +138 / -180 (series), +405 / -455 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: UltraPrime series moneyline, +1.5 and -1.5 maps
Starters:
OMG – New, AKi, Creme, Able, COLD
UP – Zs, H4cker, Xiaocaobao, Smlz, ShiauC
| Trends | |||||||||||
| OMG as Favorites | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | UP as Underdogs | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | ||||
| Matches as Favorites | 2 | 0 | -433 | Matches as Underdogs | 0 | 4 | +481 | ||||
| Against Map Spread | 2 | 0 | -8 | Against Map Spread | 1 | 3 | -39 | ||||
| Against Kill Spread | 3 | 1 | 6.5 | Against Kill Spread | 4 | 5 | +8 | ||||
| Kill Totals | 1 | 3 | 26.00 | Kill Totals | 8 | 1 | 25.25 | ||||
| Team Kill Totals | 2 | 2 | 15.50 | Team Kill Totals | 7 | 2 | 8.50 | ||||
| Game Time Totals | 3 | 1 | 30.5 | Game Time Totals | 5 | 4 | 29.75 | ||||
| Dragons over 4.5 | 1 | 3 | Dragons over 4.5 | 4 | 5 | ||||||
| Towers over 11.5 | 1 | 3 | Towers over 11.5 | 6 | 3 | ||||||
| League Rank | OMG | Tale of the Tape | UP | League Rank |
| 16 | -1407.6 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | 504.5 | 3 |
| 15 | -1373.7 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | 233.3 | 8 |
| 13 | -1137.5 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | -225.0 | 11 |
| -41.8 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | -3.0 | ||
| 14 | -45.7 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | -43.3 | 11 |
| 15 | -112.5 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | -87.7 | 14 |
| 14 | 1725.4 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1735.6 | 13 |
| -59.7 | Gold / min vs Avg | -49.5 | ||
| 14 | -112.5 | Gold Diff / min | -112.3 | 13 |
| 13 | -1.5 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | -1.5 | 14 |
| 14 | 1546.6 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1575.3 | 12 |
| 14 | -90.0 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | -51.1 | 13 |
| 17 | 1876.0 | GPM in wins | 1937.5 | 10 |
| 16 | 221.5 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 344.6 | 7 |
| 15 | 1588.5 | GPM in losses | 1634.7 | 9 |
| 16 | -416.1 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -340.8 | 13 |
| -102.4 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | -102.3 | ||
| 17 | -71.9 | Win-Adjusted GPM | -10.5 | 10 |
| 16 | -98.3 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | 24.8 | 7 |
| 13 | 43.7 | Dragon Control % | 49.5 | 8 |
| 16 | 36.6 | Herald Control % | 38.1 | 15 |
| 9 | 52.0 | Baron Control % | 41.4 | 13 |
| 4.0 | Quality Wins? | 4.0 | ||
| 40.0 | % of wins as Quality | 57.1 |
(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)
Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):
| Series Outcomes | ||
| Wins | Losses | Probability |
| 0 | 2 | 33.036% |
| 1 | 2 | 28.096% |
| 2 | 1 | 20.786% |
| 2 | 0 | 18.082% |
| (Series Win): | 38.868% | |
So the thing with OMG is that, while improved, they’re relying way too much on heroic performances from Creme to get it done. He’s been doing that from time to time but the more we get into the season and the more data we collect on this team the more it looks like we’re dealing with a team that’s going to come crashing down.
UltraPrime may not have the wins but they’ve been the better performing team on average. They have better kill agnostic economy, which is saying something by the way because this team gets a ton of money from kills and they’re very bloody. UP also have a better kill agnostic differential, perform significantly better in both wins and losses, and actually have the 3rd ranked gold differential at 10 minutes in the LPL vs OMG’s abysmal 16th. OMG are trying to play the scaling game utilizing melee assassins and bruisers and they’ve completely stolen a few games they shouldn’t have won this season.
If it’s not obvious I’m going to be on the underdogs here. This is an ugly matchup and frankly nothing would surprise me but apart from records there is absolutely no reason OMG should be a favorite in this match. UP are better almost entirely across the board. An alternative route to this one is to take the UP team total over. They’ve covered their team total as underdogs 7 out of 9 attempts with an average total of 8.5 kills as well as the game total overs in 8 out of 9. OMG are a fairly bloody winner allowing 9.89 deaths per win.
My Picks:
Map Spread: UltraPrime +1.5 maps @ -217 (2.17 units)
Moneyline: UltraPrime +147 (1 unit)
Map Spread: UltraPrime -1.5 maps @ +402 (0.5 units)
Suning Gaming -1111 (-1.5 maps @ -204)
vs
Rogue Warriors +598 (+1.5 maps @ +157, -1.5 @ +1500)
Map Moneyline: SN -588 / RW +394
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -104 / +9.5 @ -125
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 7.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over -112 / under -115)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -357 / +263 (map), -714 / +445 (series), -148 / +116 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: Rogue Warriors +1.5 maps (light)
Starters:
SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, ON
RW – Zdz, Xiaohao, Forge, Betty, QiuQiu
| Trends | |||||||||||
| SN as Favorites | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | RW as Underdogs | Win/Over | Loss/Under | Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) | ||||
| Matches as Favorites | 3 | 3 | -259 | Matches as Underdogs | 2 | 7 | +656 | ||||
| Against Map Spread | 3 | 3 | +103 | Against Map Spread | 3 | 6 | +106 | ||||
| Against Kill Spread | 7 | 8 | 6.3 | Against Kill Spread | 8 | 12 | +8 | ||||
| Kill Totals | 7 | 8 | 25.33 | Kill Totals | 10 | 10 | 25.50 | ||||
| Team Kill Totals | 7 | 8 | 14.83 | Team Kill Totals | 10 | 10 | 8.39 | ||||
| Game Time Totals | 10 | 5 | 30.5 | Game Time Totals | 8 | 12 | 29.56 | ||||
| Dragons over 4.5 | 8 | 7 | Dragons over 4.5 | 6 | 14 | ||||||
| Towers over 11.5 | 6 | 9 | Towers over 11.5 | 3 | 17 | ||||||
| League Rank | Suning | Tale of the Tape | Rogue Warriors | League Rank |
| 10 | 2.6 | Gold Diff @ 10 min | -835.0 | 15 |
| 3 | 1019.6 | Gold Diff @ 15 min | -1932.5 | 17 |
| 5 | 1050.0 | Gold Diff @ 20 min | -2025.0 | 15 |
| -0.8 | GPM first 20 min vs Avg | -102.5 | ||
| 10 | 27.2 | Gold Diff / min first 20 | -158.3 | 17 |
| 7 | 379.6 | Gold Diff / min Rest of Game | -196.9 | 17 |
| 10 | 1807.0 | Gold /min (GPM) | 1634.9 | 16 |
| 21.9 | Gold / min vs Avg | -150.3 | ||
| 8 | 46.4 | Gold Diff / min | -290.3 | 15 |
| 8 | 0.6 | Gold Percent Rating (GPR) | -4.1 | 15 |
| 8 | 1622.1 | Kill Agnostic GPM | 1499.0 | 16 |
| 9 | 16.2 | Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min | -175.8 | 15 |
| 13 | 1921.1 | GPM in wins | 1883.5 | 16 |
| 15 | 278.3 | Gold Diff per min in wins | 165.1 | 17 |
| 6 | 1658.6 | GPM in losses | 1552.0 | 17 |
| 4 | -255.1 | Gold Diff per min in losses | -442.1 | 17 |
| 56.5 | Adjusted Gold Diff / min | -280.3 | ||
| 13 | -26.8 | Win-Adjusted GPM | -64.4 | 16 |
| 15 | -41.6 | Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min | -154.8 | 17 |
| 9 | 48.6 | Dragon Control % | 30.4 | 16 |
| 9 | 50.0 | Herald Control % | 40.0 | 14 |
| 9 | 52.0 | Baron Control % | 26.1 | 16 |
| 8.0 | Quality Wins? | 1.0 | ||
| 61.5 | % of wins as Quality | 20.0 |
(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)
Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):
| Series Outcomes | ||
| Wins | Losses | Probability |
| 2 | 0 | 56.653% |
| 2 | 1 | 28.023% |
| 1 | 2 | 9.208% |
| 0 | 2 | 6.117% |
| (Series Win): | 84.675% | |
More lineup shuffling for RW and Suning going back to the bread and butter lineup.
I’m not getting cute here. It’s expensive and overpaying but I’m just going to pay for the favorites to sweep this. While Suning might not be utterly dominant in any way, Rogue Warriors absolutely suck and one of the strongest aspects of Suning as a team is that they’re very VERY stingy in losses. It’s actually kind of hard to get big leads on them which is what RW would need to win even a game here.
There’s value on the RW first herald at +155 (RW 45%, SN 43.48%) I’ll take a half unit stake on those.
My Picks:
Map Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ -204 (4.08 units)
Prop: Map 1 RW first herald @ +155 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 2 RW first herald @ +156 (0.5 units)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)
