So it’s a full day early but I’m getting ahead on my work for the week and wrote up Wednesday’s LPL matches already. Tuesday Recaps will be added to this post on Tuesday afternoon along with the LCK card for Wednesday.

In the coming weeks I plan to start a look ahead show via Twitch and/or Youtube and maybe even in podcast form for the coming matches in the LPL and LCK akin to a ‘look ahead’ lines show for a traditional sport. The idea is to make my own markets for these matches like I’ve been doing and see where we can get opening line value. More on that later this week.


Tuesday, February 23rd Recap

 

BiliBili Gaming vs EDward Gaming (Net: -4.46 units)

These two games were closer for the first 10-15 minutes than the final box score might show, especially game two despite the shorter game time. Game one was a great draft from EDG, picking up the Gangplank counter and a premium weakside bottom lane which allowed Jiejie to play around top side and get Flandre going in an already brutal matchup for Biubiu. By the way, the Biubiu Gnar play he’s getting roasted for he was trying to ult them back into tower range and got bear stunned as he went for it, made it look more stupid than it actually was, he was just trying to buy time for cross map.

EDG continue to roll. BiliBili didn’t look bad in this series to me, EDG just played a really great series and had an exceptionally difficult draft for BLG to play against in game one. Fair to criticize them for that but the play itself there wasn’t a lot they could do unless EDG botched something and they didn’t. Not downgrading BLG or upgrading EDG in any major way. Great seires from EDG though.

TOP Esports vs LNG Esports (Net: +2.0 units)

TOP are so damn good sometimes and just complete morons other times and I don’t think it’s always just “styling” on their opponents either. JackeyLove is an extremely cocky player and gets punished for it more often than I like. It makes for highlight reels but I don’t think it’s an excuse. This whole “oh but he plays on that knife’s edge it’s what makes him good!” holds any ground past a certain point. Yes, you have to risk it to get the biscuit sometimes but he just straight up makes dumb decisions sometimes. He’s insanely good, but he could be the best. I’m referencing the throw before third drake in the second game by the way. There’s scenario where LNG pick up that and flip it into a soul and suddenly a “LOL Jackey being Jackey but it’s ok they’re winning anyway” turns into “… wow Jackey actually lost them this game.” He’s on watch. This isn’t anything new he’s been doing this his entire career but it just stuck out to me this morning I guess.

Ale got whooped in game one and benched for M1kuya the Gnar as he will henceforth be called here. Going to monitor this situation. M1kuya is the better choice right now period and not just because of the Gnar pick either. Ale (Natural) has always been decent but way WAY overrated but he’s been particularly underwhelming in the three games he’s played so far. Small sample but worth keeping an eye on how this situation plays out.

 

LPL Net Total: -2.46 units

 

Daily Net Total: -2.46 units

 


 

LOL Pro League (China)

Week 6 – Day 3

 

 

TT Gaming +412 (+1.5 maps @ +117, -1.5 @ +910)

vs

RareAtom -556 (-1.5 maps @ -156, +1.5 @ -3333)

 

Map ML Price: TT +267 / RA -400

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +157 / under -213)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -119 / under -112)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -120 / -8.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -111 / under -120)

 

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

I will update this Tuesday afternoon. if there are changes to the starting rosters announced.

 

Suggested Model Plays:

TT Gaming +1.5 maps, moneyline, -1.5 maps (heavy, double digit edge on market)

 

If you tack the vig back on the model would make this number -170 / +142 for RareAtom. Before you go and sell everything you own to back TT let’s think this through because I don’t entirely agree with the model’s interpretation here. TT are essentially only doing one thing well relative to the league this season and that’s maintaining control over the herald. It’s not exactly the strongest indicator for success on it’s own. We need to look at what they’re doing with it. To this I went ahead and sorted out for only the games in which TT land the first herald. My findings are below:

TT when they get first herald:

Record: 3-7 (8 games on blue interestingly)

Gold Differentials at 10 / 15 / 20 minutes: -175.5 / -253.2 / +16.7

Gold Differential post-20 minutes: +223

First Tower also?: 8 out of 10 games

End of game GPR (gold percent reating): -1.456%

 

I ran this for when they do NOT get first herald and it’s ugly.

TT have APPEARED to have some strong openings to games but have not translated that early advantage into much. The film backs this up. A lot of times they invest in and pick up the herald (or dragon) and are able to successfully translate this into a first tower but they frequently end up trading another tower on the other side of the map or leave one of their lanes out to dry and get dove. They overinvest into these early game objectives and then completely stall out as if they don’t know what to do from there.

Now there’s a few layers to this that require a bit of speculation. If you think TT can make an adjustment and improve at snowballing their advantages or perhaps not give up as much in exchange for herald then there’s something to be optimistic about with this team. This is a totally reasonable consideration. Teams get more refined as the season goes on and improve at pushing their advantages. However, the other side of the coin is that other teams figure out that if you just disrupt TT at herald or just continue what other teams have been doing and countering on the other side of the map, then there’s actually a reasonable case to be made for TT being even worse in the second half if they aren’t spotted these leads.

TT’s opponent first herald % / herald control %:

RNG: 55.55% / 47.22% (lost 0-2)

LNG: 62.5% / 51.61% (lost 1-2)

WE: 50% / 55% (lost 0-2)

EDG: 43.75% / 43.75% (lost 0-2)

V5: 66.67% / 66.67% (won 2-0) (weird)

eStar: 45% / 48.7% (won 2-1)

LGD: 38.46% / 26.92% (lost 0-2)

 

I don’t think there’s too many wild conclusions to draw from their opponent herald data but I looked into it and here it is anyway.

TT are in a weird spot because I was optimistic about the talent on this team before the season but their mid and late game decision making and transitional game is still severely lacking. Unless they’ve made some strong adjustments during the break I’d actually expect them to regress slightly and underperform their rating expectation slightly the rest of the season.

What does this all mean for our handicap?

I haven’t gone into RareAtom as much mostly because there’s just no way I’m backing them in this spot but I’m bullish on their outcome too now that Leyan is back in the lineup. I think they’ll be a playoff team although I’m not entirely sure just how high their ceiling is with so many strong competitors at the top of the table.

What’s interesting here is that the one thing RareAtom are actually below average at is herald control. In fact, they’re BY FAR the worst in the league. That’s an angle… Sure they could make adjustments for this series but we’ll get to herald later.

I think TT are worse than the model interpretation and RareAtom are maybe slightly better but I can’t justify an adjustment that large to swing RareAtom to this number. It’s not as bullish as the model position but I’m going to make a play on the underdogs here because the value is just too good to pass up even if I adjust them downward. Also add the small bump to underdogs and teams that performed poorly before the break that we discussed yesterday. I’ll be attacking this match more in props.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.63

Time-Implied: 26.43

Underdog Win: 26.881

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.969 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 62.95% (RA 57.14% / TT 68.75%)

Volatility Rating: RA 0.25819 / TT 0.2486 (League Avg: 0.2985)

Suggested Model Plays:

OVER 23.5 kills @ -141 (strong, double digit edge)

OVER 24.5 kills @ -119 (moderate)

OVER 25.5 kills @ -108 (light)

 

Based on the kills per win and loss for these teams you’d get a 15.125 to 8.739 score on average in a RareAtom win and a 9.406 to 17.475 score in a TT win (weighting that for odds, see above).

I do like the over here quite a bit. I normally like “selling” numbers down to get even money when I’m able to but in this case I think paying up is justified. At 23.5, 64.3% of games have gone over for RareAtom and 81.25% for TT (average 72.77%). You’ve got a 10% drop off once you hit 24.5 (but the book only drops 4% and change). Both of these teams are also low on the volatility index. I’ll pay up for the over.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.115 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted:  32.84 / 33.38

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 66.52% (RA 64.286% / TT 68.75%)

Volatility Rating: RA 0.16767 / TT 0.15889 (League Avg: 0.18328)

Suggested Model Plays:

OVER 32:00 @ -111 (strong, double digit edge on market)

 

I’m a little less bullish on this one than the model is but I still think it’s a good play.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays:

TT first tower @ +137 (heavy, double digit edge)

TT first herald @ +111 (heavy, double digit edge)

TT first dragon @ +101 (moderate)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -169 (heavy, double digit edge)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -115 (moderate)

 

There’s a chance RareAtom make a correction to their play to start prioritizing herald more than they had earlier in the season but both the first herald and first tower markets look lucrative here. I typically don’t like paying vig twice when I can help it so we’re going to stick with the first herald as we talked about earlier.

I’m less bullish on the tower under with TT getting the strong objective starts that they frequently do. Of course, that also cashes if RareAtom just steamroll this series. I do like the over 4.5 draogns slain. RareAtom are averaging 5.07 total dragons per game and TT 4.75 per game.

There are a lot of angle you can attack this match from and many of them are correlated. If you index too heavily into one anticipated game script you can be completely blown out. Pick the positions where your edge is strongest.

I’ll be sticking to TT first herald, time total OVER, and kill total over.

(With the kill totals juiced upward for maps two and three, I opted out of them)

 

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: TT +1.5 maps @ +117 (1 unit)

Moneyline: TT +412 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: TT -1.5 maps @ +910 (0.25 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 32:00 @ -111 (1.11 units)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 32:00 @ -118 (1.18 units)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 32:00 @ -111 (1.11 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 kills @ -141 (1.41 units)

Prop: Map 1 TT first herald @ +111 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 TT first herald @ +110 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 TT first herald @ +111 (1 unit)

 


 

Team WE -455 (-1.5 maps @ -137, +1.5 @ -2500)

vs

eStar Pro +348 (+1.5 maps @ +103, -1.5 @ +802)

 

Map ML Price: WE -333 / EST +232

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +142 / under -192)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -119 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -110 / +7.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +162 / under -227)

 

 

I will update this Tuesday afternoon. if there are changes to the starting rosters announced.

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

 

Suggested Model Plays:

eStar +1.5 maps @ +103 (light)

 

I’m not entirely sure what the lineups are going to be for this one. I’ll be a little more optimistic if we see Insulator finally playing for eStar but even then it’ll be his first match and Shanks just handled Doinb on Monday so maybe not the easiest task.

eStar remain the ShiauC show. Even with Irma’s statistical performance has been solid but he’s made some egregious positioning errors and H4cker, while much improved from last season, hasn’t been particularly good either. If ShiauC can get his team ahead eStar have a punchers chance, otherwise this team is a complete mess. Luckily for them ShiauC is extremely good and can manage to pull it off once in awhile. If you want to see how supports can carry games just watch this team.

The model made this -432 / +329 showing a very small value on eStar. It’s worth considering the bump that I give teams that performed poorly before the break coming back so there’s a reasonable case to be made for eStar here but also factoring how WE looked against FPX on Monday I’m willing to just pass on a side in this contest.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 28.453

Time-Implied: 26.341

Underdog Win: 26.295

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.884 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 62.78% (WE 55.55% / EST 70%)

Volatility Rating: WE 0.16267 / EST 0.23119 (League Avg: 0.2985)

Suggested Model Plays:

OVER 23.5 kills @ -147 (strong, double digit edge on market)

OVER 24.5 kills @ -119 (moderate)

OVER 25.5 kills @ -102 (moderate)

 

I do like the kill totals over in this contest. eStar have been one of the bloodiest losers in the LPL primarily due to ShiauC forcing the action early and often (why is a different discussion).

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.227 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 29.99 / 30.04

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total:  44.72% (WE 44.44% / EST 45%)

Volatility Rating: WE 0.10148 / EST 0.18271 (League Avg: 0.18328)

Suggested Model Plays:

OVER 32:00 @ +162 (moderate)

 

eStar are getting absolutely blasted in losses with an average game time per loss of 29.941 minutes. As a matter of fact, eStar are just fast and loose in general. Team WE have been pretty fast in their wins as well with an average win time of 30.25 minutes. There’s some value on the over here at the price point but I’m just going to pass. I think Team WE probably speed run this match.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays:

eStar first blood @ +109 (strong, double digit edge on market)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -238 (moderate)

With the time total and under 12.5 towers juiced the way they are the better option from a numbers standpoint is the 12.5 towers under which happens much more often in victories, particularly for Team WE who are only going over that total in 17% of their games anyway. I’ll take the under towers.

The value isn’t quite as good just based on the numbers alone but if you’d rather pay the cheaper -154 for the under 4.5 dragons that’s another option if you’re going to attack the ‘WE Speed Run’ angle.

I do think first blood is a strong play. WE are scoring at an under 45% rate while eStar sit at 65% on the season thanks to ShiauC’s aggressive early play.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 kills @ -147 (1.47 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 kills @ -149 (1.49 units)

(pass on map 3, juiced too much and I don’t think it gets there anyway)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -238 (1.19 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -238 (1.19 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -238 (1.19 units)

Prop: Map 1 eStar first blood @ +109 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 eStar first blood @ +109 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 eStar first blood @ +109 (0.5 units)


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

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