Tuesday, August 3rd Recap

 

OMG vs TOP Esports (Net: +6.18 units)

Royal Never Give Up vs Team WE (Net: +1.36 units)

 

LPL Net Total: +7.54 units

 

Daily Net Total: +7.54 units

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Nine – Day Three

 

 

Suning Gaming -769 (-1.5 maps @ -189)

vs

ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming +470 (+1.5 maps @ +147, -1.5 @ +1000)

 

Map Moneyline: SN -455 / TT +315

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -115 / +8.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -127 / under -103)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -381 / +272 (map), -784 / +476 (series), -156 / +123 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  TT +1.5 maps (light)

Starters:

SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, ON

TT – Xiao7, Xiaopeng, Ye, SamD, Pudding

Trends
SN as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) TT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 5 -555 Matches as Underdogs 1 11 +614
Against Map Spread 3 7 +43 Against Map Spread 3 9 +110
Against Kill Spread 11 16 6.6 Against Kill Spread 11 15 +9
Kill Totals 9 18 24.90 Kill Totals 11 15 25.75
Team Kill Totals 9 18 15.10 Team Kill Totals 12 14 8.58
Game Time Totals 15 12 30.5 Game Time Totals 14 12 29.75
Dragons over 4.5 12 15 Dragons over 4.5 12 14
Towers over 11.5 11 16 Towers over 11.5 14 12

 

 

League Rank Suning Tale of the Tape TT League Rank
3 471.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -243.3 11
1 1461.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min -835.3 12
4 2087.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -337.5 16
6.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -73.8
10 51.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -131.6 15
8 377.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -171.7 17
7 1818.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1656.4 16
28.3 Gold / min vs Avg -133.2
7 82.8 Gold Diff / min -262.7 16
7 1.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.6 16
5 1635.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1520.0 16
8 43.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -155.0 16
8 1952.8 GPM in wins 1862.4 17
8 337.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 216.8 16
6 1653.1 GPM in losses 1600.2 13
1 -228.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -393.5 15
87.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -258.1
8 3.9 Win-Adjusted GPM -86.5 17
8 17.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -103.3 16
8 50.8 Dragon Control % 41.9 15
10 50.6 Herald Control % 46.3 12
12 50.0 Baron Control % 30.3 16
14.0 Quality Wins? #N/A
63.6 % of wins as Quality #N/A

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 58.017%
2 1 27.652%
1 2 8.652%
0 2 5.679%
(Series Win): 85.669%

 

With all of the playoff teams locked it’s difficult to tell who is going to really care about seeding or not amongst the qualified teams. The reason I bring this up is because if Suning give it their all in this matchup I want to pile on the neutral objective unders but just looking at it straight up I think the best play on the board is TT first herald at +144. TT have picked up first herald in more than 60% of their games this season and that number is steadily increased over the course of the season as well. It’s also agnostic to the quality of team they’re playing. Suning have just a 45% first herald rate and we’re getting a fat plus number on it so that’s going to be the play.

I am going to play that under dragon total too even though it’s right about at market price. The reason I’m breaking the tie in favor of it is because of that trend toward far fewer dragons that was discussed in yesterday’s post.

 

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 TT first herald @ +144 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 TT first herald @ +144 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -152 (1.52 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -147 (1.47 unit)

 


 

Victory Five +1237 (+1.5 maps @ +332, -1.5 @ +3200)

vs

FunPlus Phoenix -5000 (-1.5 maps @ -476)

 

Map Moneyline: V5 +696 / FPX -1429

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -110 / -10.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 28:00 (over -105 / under -123)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -2690 / +941 (map), -6714 / +2396 (series), -914 / +539 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  FPX -1.5 maps (moderate)

Starters:

V5 – Aliez, Pzx, Uniboy, Kepler, ZYF

FPX – Nuguri, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp

Trends
FPX as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) V5 as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 10 3 -951 Matches as Underdogs 0 13 +724
Against Map Spread 7 6 -25 Against Map Spread 3 10 +139
Against Kill Spread 16 16 7.2 Against Kill Spread 12 17 +9
Kill Totals 19 13 26.42 Kill Totals 9 20 25.50
Team Kill Totals 16 16 16.35 Team Kill Totals 10 19 8.04
Game Time Totals 13 19 30.1 Game Time Totals 14 15 29.54
Dragons over 4.5 10 22 Dragons over 4.5 12 17
Towers over 11.5 14 18 Towers over 11.5 12 17

 

League Rank FunPlus Tale of the Tape Victory Five League Rank
1 2253.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -2347.9 17
6 714.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1262.5 14
1 322.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -304.1 17
98.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -119.9
1 101.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -206.3 17
3 445.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 0.7 14
1 1923.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1585.1 17
134.1 Gold / min vs Avg -204.5
2 176.2 Gold Diff / min -351.1 17
2 2.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -5.0 17
1 1682.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1481.4 17
1 117.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -221.0 17
1 2012.3 GPM in wins 1898.1 14
3 372.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 291.4 14
1 1711.2 GPM in losses 1551.6 17
6 -295.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -420.0 16
180.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -346.5
1 63.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -50.7 14
3 52.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -28.7 14
1 66.9 Dragon Control % 29.3 17
7 54.4 Herald Control % 33.9 15
4 62.9 Baron Control % 16.2 17
13.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
54.2 % of wins as Quality 66.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 87.245%
2 1 11.508%
1 2 0.813%
0 2 0.435%
(Series Win): 98.753%

 

Well this ought to be fun….

Just a reminder but if FPX could still get the #1 seed over EDG who have to play LNG later this week. Always difficult to tell who and if teams care that much about moving up for side selection or not, I tend to think not but just wanted to clarify the situation.

It’s expensive but by the number there is actually a fairly strong advantage on the market price for FPX to sweep this series. You have a few different options here. You can just avoid this altogether or look to derivatives. If you want a piece of the dogs perhaps citing that FPX have already locked up a top two seed and are going to clown around here then I’d look to V5 first blood which is already advantages (58% vs 38% and you’re getting plus money on the 58%). Alternatively if you think these games get a little clowny you could look to kill total overs. The model flagged a very light edge on those anyway so I could actually see making that play as well despite V5 being overwhelmingly an under team.

Me? I’m going to lay the big chalk play the neutral unders and the FPX sweep. Even when FPX play with their food they usually end up stomping even harder, that’s where we see some of these speed run games come from. I’d expect they want to keep up the momentum going into playoffs.

My Picks:

Map Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ -476 (4.76 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -250 (2.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -263 (2.63 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

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