Sunday, May 16th Recap
PSG Talon vs Royal Never Give Up (Net: +1.5 units)
Talon pulled a Cloud 9 in this one. A few really small mistakes cost them the lead that they managed to pick up in this one. RNG get props for actually finding the few windows that Talon did leave open and completely blowing them out for their errors.
I’ve seen some people saying RNG are taking their foot off the gas a little and I wanted to take a bit here to mention that I think this is one of the most overused “excuses” or narratives that there is in both traditional and esports. Sometimes it happens, sure. Most of the time it doesn’t. A team wasn’t “sandbagging” or “experimenting” just because they lose to an underdog. You see this justification or explanation after the fact type of situation come up all the time and frankly I’m just tired of hearing about it. These are professionals. Many of them are young sure but they’re still professionals and every time we say “they’ve got nothing to play for,” and that includes myself by the way, you should take a second and consider that these people have short careers and many are under constant pressure for their positions.
Great game by both teams, super entertaining. Best game of the day.
MAD Lions vs DAMWON Kia Gaming (Net: +2.0 units)
Other than one botched team fight this was DAMWON wire-to-wire. Aatrox blind was an interesting picks but made some sense with the Lee Sin + Rumble lower range combo meaning that he’d always have targets to be on in fights. Canyon and ShowMaker took over both games today.
Cloud 9 vs Royal Never Give Up (Net: +4.43 units)
Just an excellent game from Cloud 9 through and through. They challenged RNG early just like PSG did, grabbed the lead, and never let go of it. Honestly coming into this tournament I was worried about the outer lanes for Cloud 9 and they’ve been absolutely phenomenal. We backed this primarily because I thought the number was soft but this was a “never in doubt” for Cloud 9. Great showing.
Pentanet.GG vs MAD Lions (Net: +2.0 units)
MAD with an absolute beatdown. Nothing much to say here.
DAMWON Kia Gaming vs PSG Talon (Net: no action)
Doggo and Kaiwing have been excellent this tournament but Ghost and BeryL punished a poor level one trade decision and absolutely took them to task for it forcing an early back, denying a wave+ and then following it up with a hard freeze to deny Doggo more or less anything to open this game. ShowMaker went nuts again just dominating Maple’s Sylas. This game just goes to show how, against these top level teams, a single mistake can just cost you so much. It’s the biggest difference between the good teams and the great teams. Good teams punish most of the time and to some extent and maybe limit errors, great teams make very few errors and when the other team makes them, punish with surgical precision.
DAMWON look to be heating up a bit but honestly Khan and BeryL have had an absolutely awful tournament and even in their decisive wins are making some questionable decisions. BeryL almost single handedly won this early game for DAMWON at level one but then tried to throw it back with some really greedy pathing a few times. I just can’t imagine what DAMWON would look like if those two were in form.
Pentanet.GG vs Cloud 9 (Net: -2.38 units)
Of course… is this not the most on-brand North American thing to do? I mentioned in the Discord this morning after Cloud 9 defeated RNG “Everybody ready for C9 to lose to Pentanet later?” joking… but then it happened. Honestly this was just a great draft by Pentanet and some sloppy execution by Cloud 9 and with the superior scaling composition this was a pretty easy string for Pentanet to play out. Don’t worry, they TRIED to lose this game a few times but their comp was just too insulated and the lead too large.
It’s hard not to meme when it seems to happen every time but just laugh it off, don’t think about it too much, and move on. Cloud 9 are still really good, this is just tragic timing for a bad game. They aren’t quite dead yet but they’re going to need a miracle tomorrow and that starts with winning both of their games.
Daily Net Total: +7.55 units
Another solid day that could have been double digits if not for the Cloud 9 Meme Delivery Service.
Rumble Stage – Day Five
Royal Never Give Up -125 vs DAMWON Kia Gaming +104
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -119 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -116 / -2.5 @ -112 (weird I know but that’s listed multiple books)
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 13.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -105 / under -123)
Kill spread looks a little weird because of moneyline movement from the tournament opener and slow adjustment.
I was on DAMWON the first time and I’ll be on them again here for similar reasons. It has nothing to do with “recent form” or anything like that. In fact, I think DAMWON have looked poor relative to their typical performance level in this tournament and as I mentioned, BeryL and Khan specifically have had some really boneheaded decisions. And they’re still on top…I still think DAMWON are the better team and they’re being priced as dogs here. I also like the kill total under.
Moneyline: DAMWON +104 (2 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -109 (2.18 units)
Pentanet.GG +284 vs PSG Talon -400
Kill Total: 28.5 (over -114 / under -114)
Kill Spread: +12.5 @ -120 / -12.5 @ -109
Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 20.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +212 / under -294)
One hundred plus point line move because Pentanet shocked Cloud 9? I’ll fade that overreaction. This is essentially a win-and-in for PSG Talon. They also looked excellent the past two days. The case for Pentanet is that their time at this tournament has given them valuable time to scrim against better teams and they’re improving here and there but it was mostly just a great draft and some poor execution by Cloud 9 early that allowed them to snowball this game.
Don’t get baited. Talon roll.
Kill Total: UNDER 28.5 @ -114 (2.28 units)
Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -476 (4.76 units)
Royal Never Give Up -312 vs MAD Lions +246
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -122 / under -106)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -111 / +8.5 @ -116
Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 8.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over -104 / under -125)
I backed RNG as -233 favorites the last time out because that was a significantly discounted price from the ~ -450 price based on pre-tournament odds. This time it’s somewhere in the middle and more where I expected it to be the last time out. The MAD Lions are live enough as dogs that I like the kill spread/moneyline split here. This is a surprisingly low time total for a MAD Lions game. They tend to be slightly on the longer side, usually from a lead that they get a little overzealous with at some point. Could certainly happen here. I’d expect this to be a close, hard fought game given that this is a win-and-in for the MAD Lions just as it is for PSG in the prior match with both sitting at 4-4.
You’ve got a handful of options here. The time total over and over 4.5 dragons very low vig, great prices, I’ll opt for the time (slightly higher edge). You could also look at neutral overs like over 12.5 towers at +200ish price. Just keep in mind that 11 and 12 are the key tower numbers and even close games can easily go under 12.5 towers. If you think this game devolves into split pushing shenanigans I could see it getting there though. I’ll be opting for the time over, kills under, and MAD Lions sides.
Time Total: OVER 30:00 @ -104 (2.08 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 27.5 @ -106 (1.06 units)
Kill Spread: MAD Lions +8.5 kills @ -116 (1.16 units)
Moneyline: MAD Lions +246 (0.5 units)
PSG Talon -132 vs Cloud 9 +103
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -105)
Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -112 / +3.5 @ -116
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 11.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over +138 / under -182)
There’s a chance that this game could end up meaning a lot less than it looks. If PSG AND MAD Lions win their opening games tomorrow then Cloud 9 are eliminated. That said, as I mentioned earlier, “meaningless” in regards to the outcome of the tournament or results doesn’t mean it’s meaningless to these players. Especially coming off of a poor performance to close out the day against Pentanet, Cloud 9 are going to be out to prove a point here.
With that in mind, the first meeting between these two had Cloud 9 as -172 favorites, again off of pre-tournament disrespect for PSG by the market. I still rate these two teams as relatively equal, maybe slight edge to Talon overall. I backed Talon as +136 dogs in that spot citing that I would have backed Cloud 9 at the same number if they were flipped. Well it’s not quite flipped just compressed and we’re not getting a great number here so this is a pass on a side from me.
When I was preparing for the first meeting between these two it was exceptionally difficult for me to figure out how these games would play out given that this is a sort of strange matchup stylistically and both teams are willing to be aggressive with counterpicks and proactive game plans in the draft. I’m just staying away from this one completely. If I had to take a position it’d be the under 25.5 kills.
DAMWON Kia Gaming -3333 vs Pentanet.GG +992
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -110 / under -118)
Kill Spread: -13.5 @ -109 / +13.5 @ -120
Team Kill Totals: 19.5 / 6.5
Time Total: OTB
If DAMWON win their opening game against RNG they’ll have locked up first place and this could turn into a bit of a circus. However, the Korean teams and Kkoma-coached teams in particular, are not the types to “have fun” in a situation like this so I wouldn’t count on it. They might try to show a pick to earn some draft equity later but I’d expect them to just want to get home ASAP and take care of business without any issues here.
Prop: UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -357 (3.57 units)
MAD Lions -139 vs Cloud 9 +115
Kill Total: 28.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -115 / +3.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 12.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -111 / under -116)
MAD Lions blew open a ridiculous lead off of a ridiculously close 3v3 skirmish that easily could have gone the other direction. We use the term coin flip pretty liberally in the LOL vernacular but this was one of those situations where the entire game hinged on the result of that situation based on how much was invested in it. Whoever lost it was likely going to be run over and look bad. It just so happened to be Cloud 9 in this instance.
I’d expect a much closer bout this time around. I took Cloud 9 last time on the alternate kill spread but the moneyline was +102 / -123 with MAD as the favorites. Regardless of whether or not this match “matters” in the grand scheme of the tournament, there’s a sense of pride and a grudge between NA and EU that I think we’ll see play out here. Should be a closer match than last time for sure. Could go either way so give me the dogs again.
Kill Spread (alt): Cloud 9 +0.5 kills @ +119 (1 unit)
Prop: OVER 4.5 dragons @ -141 (1.41 units)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
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(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)