Monday, May 10th Recap
MAD Lions vs Istanbul Wildcats (Net: +3.53 units)
Humanoid was dominating in this game. MAD were in control of this game but uncharacteristically not executing well on their team compositions win condition. The Wildcats did a good job of not letting MAD set up which they get credit for but this was MAD’s game to lose before a very slight overreach by Humanoid trying to chunk out members of IWC before the baron turned into the catalyst for them to pull the trigger and just go with Leona ult. Off of that win they picked up baron and an inhib and picked Humanoid again in the next fight and this one was over. Close fights but better execution by the Wildcats.
PSG Talon vs paiN Gaming (Net: -0.96 units)
Talon pulled a MAD Lions here and just out teamfought paiN despite a decent start by the Brazilians.
Istanbul Wildcats vs PSG Talon (Net: -1.16 units)
Doggo got enormously fed .
paiN Gaming vs MAD Lions (Net: -2.28 units)
This was another game that MAD probably should have lost but manage to pull a rabbit out of a hat type of teamfight situation, something that’s all too common with them. For those curious, I don’t hate the MAD Lions or anything I’m just expecting more from them. They dig holes for themselves far too often for seemingly no reason other than negligence and of they can fix that up they’ll be a hell of a team.
paiN Gaming vs Istanbul Wildcats (Net: -4.1 units)
Both teams were eliminated going into this contest so anything could have happened. IWC severely botched a well set up bottom lane dive and fed BrTT a few kills on Jinx, an absolute nightmare. Despite that, IWC actually battled back and HolyPhoenix got immensely fed on Kalista but eventually the range advantage was just too much to overcome. Overall very sloppy and two teams looked like they were just loose and playing for fun. Ended a little too early for all my overs to hit so I got crushed on this one.
PSG Talon vs MAD Lions (Net: +0.81 units)
This game was Talon’s to lose with wins in both side lanes including a solo kill by Hanabi’s Sion punishing a mistake from Armut’s Jayce where Hanabi didn’t even need to use flash. A few small mistakes during setups for neutral objectives were capitalized on by MAD Lions and they got the better of Talon at these, stacked up dragons, and eventually burned down a baron as Hanabi went bottom assuming he could spellbook summoner change to teleport in time but MAD’s decisiveness to start the baron allowed them to finish it before the buffer time for the switch could even complete. Game ended eventually off of that.
This was a heartbreaker. Would have been a nice plus money cap to the day but uncharacteristic mistakes in set ups by Talon and good punishes by MAD.
Parlays: +6.0 units (3 winners)
Daily Total: +1.84 units
Group Stage – Day Six
Third day of the second round robin is Group B
Cloud 9 +378 vs DAMWON Kia Gaming -556
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -108 / under -122)
Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -115 / -9.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over -114 / under -115)
DAMWON probably should have lost to DFM on Saturday but managed to pull one out like they’ve done time and time again with good defense and patience. That said, DAMWON haven’t looked nearly as dominant in this tournament as you’d expect which says one of two things to me; maybe they’re not in form or that they’re due for regression to the norm and are going to completely stomp the second week of this tournament. I think we’re going to see the latter. The rust is off, the travel fatigue has worn off, they should be dialed in for week two.
That said, we’re getting almost 100 cents more on Cloud 9 than we did last week. I didn’t back them at that point but it’s awfully tempting to at this number. I just can’t pull the trigger on it. I look at these outer lane matchups and have a hard time seeing them going well for Cloud 9. I can definitely see the “oh but DWG almost lost to DFM” argument but so did C9 and good teams have bad games. I give props to DFM but I do think it was a little bit of results oriented thinking going on and we saw lightning strike twice. There’s a reasonable chance we see a DFM lose out in this tournament and I wouldn’t be surprised but this isn’t about them…
I think DAMWON stomp here but I’m not betting it. If I had to bet a side here it’d be the Cloud 9 +9.5 kills or the time total OVER but something tells me DAMWON are going to steamroll this second week.
No additional picks.
Detonation FocusMe -179 vs Gillette Infinity Esports +140
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -110 / under -119)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -119 / +5.5 @ -110
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -128 / under -101)
I’ve got some Infinity from the pre-tournament. I think people are going to pile on to DFM here because they beat Cloud 9 and should have beaten DAMWON. Overreaction is a hell of a drug. This is still a very flawed team and literally lost to this Infinity team last week and people seem to forget that even happened. I haven’t been adding on to pre-tournament positions but I’m going to add a unit to Infinity here. I made these teams roughly a coin flip before the tournament and we’re getting +140 now on reaction and hype.
I think it’ll be a competitive game like it was last time around albeit not quite as explosive and short (I could be wrong). The second round robin has resulted in a lot of over games in general. I like a small piece of the over towers and dragons.
Moneyline: Infinity +140 (1 unit)
Prop: OVER 4.5 dragons @ +105 (1 unit)
Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +233 (0.5 units)
DAMWON Kia Gaming -3333 vs Gillette Infinity Esports +983
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -114)
Kill Spread: -11.5 @ -114 / +11.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 5.5
Time Total: 29:00 (over +112 / under -146), 30:00 (over +241 / under -333)
The most tempting number at first glance here was the time total over. DAMWON are notorious for taking their time in situations where you’d assume they stomp. They did it all season long in the LCK but I think the tower under is a slam dunk and the best way to play this even if it isn’t the sexiest. The kill total under isn’t a bad look either but there’s a chance DAMWON loosen up a bit in week two.
Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -370 (7.4 units)
Detonation FocusMe +239 vs Cloud 9 -323
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -112 / -7.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +114 / under -147)
This is going to be another spot that’s prime for an overreaction. Cloud 9 were -526 going into the tournament and are now -323 due to the loss. There’s a chance that Cloud 9 get nervous or psyched out due to the pressure of “losing to bad teams.” I think this team has holes and talked extensively about them before the tournament started but this is one spot where I’m backing the favorites at a significantly cheaper price than I was getting last week. Fade the overreaction.
I didn’t have any pre-tournament wagers on this matchup because of the number but I like this new price in a bounce back week two for the LCS representatives.
Moneyline: Cloud 9 -323 (3.23 units)
Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -278 (2.78 units)
DAMWON Kia Gaming -1429 vs Detonation FocusMe +711
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -110 / under -118)
Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -116 / +10.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 6.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over +190 / under -256)
Similar to the Infinity match I didn’t have any pre-tournament positions in this one. It’s not the sexiest but the under towers feels like a slam dunk to me just like in that match.
Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -400 (8 units)
Cloud 9 -588 vs Gillette Infinity Esports +386
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -109 / under -119)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -110 / +8.5 @ -119
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 7.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +132 / under -172)
There is a chance that this match doesn’t matter if Infinity is eliminated and Cloud 9 have clinched already so we could see some looser play but something tells me that Cloud 9 are going to be dialed in after being “embarrassed” in week one. Unders again and I’ll lay the big spread with Cloud 9.
Kill Spread: Cloud 9 -8.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)
Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -345 (3.45 units)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
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(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)